Bucs RB Jacquizz Rodgers - Photo by: Getty Images
Despite having a plus-four turnover margin and 101 yards rushing from Jacquizz Rodgers in his first Bucs start, Tampa Bay narrowly edged Carolina for the win on Monday Night Football, 17-14. The Bucs halted a three-game skid and head into the bye week 2-3 but with a 2-0 record in the NFC South. It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.
TWO BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1: BUCS’ 2016 SEASON IS FAR FROM OVER
Let’s face it. The Buccaneers were another Roberto Aguayo missed field goal away from what could have been another forgettable season in Tampa Bay after a disastrous 1-4 start. Instead, it’s the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers that are 1-4 and reeling after the Bucs’ come-from-behind 17-14 victory on Monday Night Football.
The Bucs improved to 2-3 on the year heading into the bye week, and that record came against Atlanta (4-1), Arizona (2-3), Los Angeles (3-2), Denver (4-1) and Carolina (1-4). Those teams have a combined record of 14-11. Up next is a 1-4 San Francisco team that just changed quarterbacks from Blaine Gabbert to Colin Kaepernick. There’s a real chance the Bucs could be 3-3 after the bye week with a win against the 49ers, setting up a home showdown against the 4-1 Oakland Raiders.
The Bucs have a Thursday night rematch game against the Falcons at home on November 3 and could either be 4-3 or 3-4 and looking to get back to .500 before another home game against the 1-4 Chicago Bears after a nine-day layoff. There’s a real opportunity for Tampa Bay to at least win three out of its next four games – two of which are against one-win teams in San Francisco and Chicago. Winning three out of four, especially the Falcons game, would put the Bucs at 5-4 with a 3-0 record in the NFC South.
The reason for optimism is the health of the football team. The Bucs’ bye week comes at an opportune time as Pro Bowl running back Doug Martin (hamstring), Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (calf), starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald (hamstring), starting defensive end Robert Ayers (ankle) and starting tight end Luke Stocker (ankle) should all be back in the lineup after the bye week. Throw in rookie defensive end Noah Spence, who was limited with a shoulder injury on Monday night and Tampa Bay could be at full strength heading to San Francisco.
STATEMENT 2: TAMPA BAY’S PERSONNEL DEPT. REALLY HELPED WIN THIS GAME
Criticize Bucs general manager Jason Licht for some bad drafting if you want. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins looks like a bad second-round pick from the 2014 draft, as he was released two weeks ago after spotty production on the field and a DUI arrest. Aguayo, one of this year’s two second-round picks, looks to be a shaky early pick as well.
But aside from the draft picks that contributed to Tampa Bay’s 17-14 win at Carolina, including Jameis Winston, the 2015 first-rounder, throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Mike Evans, the 2014 first-rounder, and Aguayo, who did make the game-winning kick, there were plenty of undrafted gems that also played a role in the Bucs’ big victory on Monday Night Football. Tight end Cameron Brate, an undrafted free agent tight end from 2014, had just one catch, but it went for 38 yards and set up Evans’ 26-yard touchdown on the next play.
Bucs LB Daryl Smith – Photo by: Getty Images
Rookie fullback Alan Cross, another undrafted free agent, threw a key, de-cleating block on Winston’s touchdown pass against a blitzing Panther. After the touchdown, wide receiver Adam Humphries, an undrafted free agent from Clemson, who was playing against his favorite team growing up near Charlotte, caught Winston’s two-point conversion pass to tie the game at 14-14.
Throw in the fact that the Bucs started two rookie undrafted defensive linemen in DaVonte Lambert and Channing Ward to help a unit that was without starting defensive linemen McCoy, McDonald and Ayers, and Tampa Bay’s personnel department should be lauded for finding some capable reserves that played like starters – at least for one night. Lambert forced a key second half fumble when he hit a scrambling Derek Anderson, and he had four tackles on the night, while Ward had two.
Licht and Co. also had a couple of key in-season additions play big roles against the Panthers. Running back Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for a career-high 101 yards on a career-high 30 carries in place of the injured Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers, a former Falcon, is the same kind of quality street free agent Licht was able to find last year with the addition of center Joe Hawley, who was signed in early September and went on to become the starter after Week 2. With Sims on injured reserve, he’ll play a large role on offense the rest of the season for Tampa Bay.
Defensive tackle John Hughes was also signed this week and played 17 snaps on defense, recording one tackle. It wasn’t necessarily a star-studded affair in the Bucs’ 17-14 win over the Panthers, but in a battle of the back-ups, Tampa Bay’s back-ups played like starters and we up for the challenge.
One more personnel note, cornerback Brent Grimes and linebacker Daryl Smith, who were big-name free agent signings in the offseason, each recorded their first interceptions of the season on Monday night. Grimes was in the end zone in the third quarter, which proved to be huge.
TWO PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR AGUAYO?
Simply put, the Bucs are married to their 2016 second-round pick for the rest of this season, despite the fact that he’s missed four field goals, including two against the Panthers, and an extra point thus far during his rookie campaign. Tampa Bay won’t win a lot of games with a 50 percent kicker, and that is what Aguayo is right now after making his last kick, which was a 38-yard game-winner.
Had Aguayo missed that field goal, he would have missed three of five attempts versus the Panthers and the Bucs may have had to consider releasing him. A 50 percent field goal percentage is unacceptable – even for a rookie. Instead, Aguayo will get the rest of the season to prove himself due his high draft status, but he has to make some real progress and become more reliable.
Sebastian Janikowski, a first-round pick in 2000, connected on 68.8 percent (22-of-32) of his kicks before hitting 82.1 percent (23-of-28) the next year. Stephen Gostkowski, a fourth-round pick, hit 76.9 percent (20-of-35) of his kicks as a rookie in 2006 before improving to 87.5 percent (21-of-24) the following season.
It is possible for a rookie kicker to go through some growing pains and then catch on the next year and show real improvement. The Bucs hope that is the case with Aguayo, especially with a second-round draft pick invested in him.
Bucs K Roberto Aguayo – Photo by: Getty Images
The key is for Aguayo to reach at least 72 percent of his kicks as soon as possible and stay at that percentage – at least – through the end of the 2016 season. Former Bucs kickers Steve Christie (77.9 percent) and Martin Gramatica (76.4 percent) made more than three quarters of their kicks during their NFL careers, while Michael Husted (71 percent) was still above the 70 percent mark.
The difference was that Gramatica began his NFL career hitting 84.4 percent (27-of-32), and Christie started off hitting 85.2 percent (23-of-27) in Tampa Bay. Husted’s rookie season saw him hit just 72.7 percent (16-of-22). In order for Aguayo to get close to that mark, he needs to make his next six field goals in a row. That would have him connecting on 10-of-14 field goals for 71.4 percent. Can he do that?
QUESTION 2: WAS THAT A QUALITY WIN ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL?
The Bucs beat the Panthers and ended a seven-game losing streak, and extended their winning streak on Monday Night Football to three games, but was that 17-14 victory really a quality win? The 1-4 Panthers are a shell of their former self. This is not the 15-1 NFC championship team from a year ago.
Not only has Carolina missed cornerback Josh Norman, the Panthers offensive line hasn’t improved much from a year ago. Missing Pro Bowl quarterback Cam Newton, who was the NFL MVP last year, running back Jonathan Stewart and left tackle Michael Oher due to injury was one thing, but the Panthers also missed their pass rush from a year ago.
Defensive end Jared Allen retired and was replaced by Kony Ealy, who was kept at bay by left tackle Donovan Smith. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short was limited by injury and was stonewalled by guards Kevin Pamphile and Ali Marpet, and center Joe Hawley.
Winston was pressured at times, but usually when the Panthers brought the blitz. Carolina sacked him twice, but that was from the secondary on blitzes.
Pro Bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly had a game-high 11 tackles, but didn’t make any splash plays. Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen had nine catches for 181 yards, averaging 20.4 yards per reception. But that wasn’t enough for the Panthers to come away with the victory.
Not taking anything away from the win, but this wasn’t as great as the Week 1 triumph at Atlanta, especially since the Falcons are 4-1. The Panthers are a different – and better team – with Newton, Stewart and Oher in the lineup. But the Bucs had a favorable plus-four turnover margin and still only won by a last-second field goal. Something is very wrong with that picture.
TWO BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1: RODGERS WILL LEAD TAMPA BAY IN RUSHING IN SAN FRANCISCO
There is a good chance that Martin returns from a hamstring injury for Tampa Bay’s next game in two weeks in San Francisco. Martin, who was the league’s second-leading rusher last year, has rushed for 85 yards on 25 carries (3.4 avg.) in the five quarters he’s played in this season.
Yet, don’t be surprised if the Bucs protect his healing hamstring and ease him back into the lineup by splitting carries with Rodgers, who is running the ball so well right now. Rodgers rushed for 101 yards against Carolina and has 170 yards on 43 carries (4.0 avg.) to lead the Bucs right now. He’s running hungry and has Tampa Bay’s longest run, a 24-yarder against Arizona. Martin and Rodgers will each top 50 yards rushing against the 49ers, but Rodgers will be leading the way – even if it’s with less carries.
PREDICTION 2: DAVID MISSES THE PRO BOWL
There is a lot of football left in the season and still time for him to make up ground, but right now it doesn’t look like Bucs linebacker Lavonte David will make the Pro Bowl this year. David looks hesitant on the field and has disappeared for stretches like never before for some reason. David is tied for third on the team with safety Bradley McDougald with 26 tackles, but that’s behind safety Chris Conte’s 34 stops and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander’s 43 tackles. He failed to record a tackle at Arizona.
Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Getty Images
More importantly, David has seen some inexplicable lapses in coverage, especially Monday night against Olsen, and has just one sack and one forced fumble through five games and no interceptions. David is capable of making more splash plays, but they haven’t been there thus far in 2016. Is this due to David, who had five tackles in Carolina, being slow to learn his place in Mike Smith’s new defense? Or is David not a great stylistic fit in the scheme? David will be productive this year, but he won’t be the force he was in the past in Tampa Bay unless he really picks it up.
Scott Reynolds is in his 22nd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Sorry Scott bit any win for the Bucs is a quality win. When we start getting 10+ seasons every year we can look at the quality of each win. Good articles otherwise. Rodgers was awesome. Could make a nice one two punch rest of season.
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Pretty amazing. We are 5 games into the season and we are already talking about the possibility that the kicker will not be here next year. We gave up two picks for this guy and we cannot stop anyone on defense, and we are weak at receiver, just think what we could have done with those two picks. I won’t get into David, cause I just can’t believe that someone who was all world the last two yrs is suddenly fading. He has to be hurt.
I don’t think David is hurt …I just think he’s adjusting to the new scheme as with the whole team and still learning. We saw on those deep sideline out routes with Olsen on Monday night David released him as he saw the RB coming out in the short flat, not really committing to either route as he appeared hesitant on which one to cover. Hopefully as the season goes forward he (again along with the rest of the defense) will improve schematically and start reacting naturally and stop thinking/guessing.
Good article. I Truley hope that most of our injured players can return. I did not realize Spence was also among the walking wounded. Agree they should ease Martin badk in and let Rodgers carry the load on the road in SF. A little pessimistic about who we will beat going forward. I think one game at a time is far more realistic. I have concernes about Winston and I think while he has made some good plays he shows a willingness to force the ball and risk turnovers. Maybe when some of our staters return he will settle down. Finally, in my opinion there is no excuse for missing FG’s like Aquayo has. This kid has plenty is big venue experience at FSU. Until he proves me wrong I agree this was a wasted 2nd round pick.
Statement 1: Monday was a must win for us to have any chance at the division. With a healthy team and the upcoming schedule, there is no reason why we can’t win 4 of the next 6. Have to win that Atlanta rematch. Being 2-3 is what I assumed we’d be before the season started. The fact that we should be 3-2 is encouraging.
Question 1: I hated the pick of Aguayo, and I’m an FSU alum. I saw his misses his Jr. year and they worried me. I want him to succeed, but I figured he’d need to be at 90% this season to justify his draft position. Which is a lot to ask for a rookie. The fact that his misses have already affected two games is disturbing. When you have a franchise QB like Winston on a rookie contract, you better load up the offense, or draft your defense before his second contract. The fact that we spent two picks on a specialists, instead of potential position starters, is my biggest issue. Hopefully he gets it together.
Question 2: Any win in the NFL is a quality win. Yes the Panthers were banged up, but so are we. A win is a win. Especially in the division. Yes, we have issues to sort out, but maybe we don’t panic until we start looking terrible with a full squad on the field. I really think people have forgotten how good we looked in week 1. Get healthy, rest up, and let’s see where we are after the Seattle game.
LVD will start making plays. I’ve noticed that his coverage skills are lacking. He is to good not to.
Can’t wait until a healthy team takes the field.
This game was won despite the awful FG kicker and some questionable play calling. The only thing I was encouraged with was that the defense played much better, albeit with reserves but it appears to be slowly coming together. Grimes and Smith have been burnt more than the plays they finally made on Monday night so I’ll hold off on the praise. Definitely dont think our personnel decisions are anything to be giddy over. Whiff on a second round TE and then find Brate after the draft isn’t genius, its a crap shoot. Finding Hawley during the season but paying Evan Smith isn’t genius its a fool fixing another terrible signing. I wont even waste key strokes on Aguayo bc we all know how terrible of a pick its been so far. Even if he figures it out I think its clear to see we could have gotten better production from a veteran and used those 2 picks on more pressing needs. Lastly I think Lavonte will figure it out. I think he’s thinking too much on the field and thats why hes a step slow on some of his drops in pass coverage. We have never been able to stop TEs so I wont lay all the blame on him bc hes played lights out and we still couldnt chorale good TEs. Decent win but I’d like to see Koetter call TOs instead of incurring delay of game penalties in the first half. Or figure out thats its ok to stick with the run but be create with how we run. Get the ball on the edges some, run some counters or traps but Im sick of watching these predictable 1st and 2nd down runs up the gut that go nowhere. The players aren’t the only ones that need to use this bye week to get better.
Sorry, had to get that scream out. Can we PLEASE get over the Aguayo pick? Yes, it was a risk that most of us (rightfully) questioned/hated. I get it. I agree. But, for God’s sake, it was months ago. We ARE stuck with this kicker for awhile. I hate the fact that he’s missed so many “easy” kicks, too. But, calling for Licht’s job is a stretch. Either way, that wouldn’t happen in-season, anyway. Can we stop bitching about what could/should have been with the draft and move on to who we actually have and support that player?
Aguayo gives me ulcers, as well. But, when push came to shove, on a game-winning kick, on MNF, he came through. Yes, it should have been 23-14 and not 17-14. But, the fact is he nailed the most important kick that won us the game, with the whole country watching and expecting him to blow it. He did not. What happens from here on will tell us a great deal about him.
At this point, I could care less if it’s a “quality win” or not. We are 2-3 instead of 1-4. 2-0 in the division (both on the road). That is some freaking quality.
I’m curious how a Koetter coached team will do in a “game after a bye”. This is huge, imo. Thankfully, they will have tape on how Kaepernick plays in Chip Kelly’s offense. If we can get healthy, create and execute strong game plans for SF and get us to 3-3, we could get on a roll.
We shall see…
I do believe David is hurt. The way he just galloped behind Olsen up the right sideline it just seemed he was hesitant to catch him. He could have wrapped Olsen up much sooner than he did. Even if the scheme wasn’t souring right with him he would still show his aggressiveness when it’s just straight up football and he’s not.
S#1: hope so!
S#2: no, just no.
Q#1: hope so!
Q#2: no, just no.
P#1: hope so!
P#2: no, just no.
….your symmetry today was fabulous Scott!
Somebody’s math is off. If Gostkowski hit 20 of 35 kicks, that is 57.1%, not 76.9%. Big difference there.
Good Article Scott. No question this was a big win. I believe we have to win 2 out of the next 3 games. No pass rush still and Daryl Smith was just at the right place when Hargreaves tipped the ball. Grimes is 50-50 and will see more passes coming his way than not. We need Murpghy and I hope he ia back during the bye week. Go Bucs!
I like this much better than “it was not a great win”. How about “Good teams find ways to win”. Go Bucs!!!
SR- It’s hard to take your optimism seriously. You get to pumped up by a win. After the Atlanta win you boldly pronounced the Bucs a playoff team and predicted at 1-6 record. SR- I have said this before, an while I like you a lot, you rehab eliot your perspective. Yo are now unable to be objective about the team for 2l reasons. 1- you are note objective about Winston because you advocated drafting him. You predicted he would NOT regress, which clearly he has. He is NOT an accurate passer and that is unlikely to change. 2-you defended Licht’s trading up for and picking Aguayo. We gave up TWO potential starters for him and while the rest of the NFL was panning the pick,you were loudly defending it. You have become too much of a homer and have lost objectivity. Luv you man, just hope the old SR will come back
I like homers and am 1 myself.
Nice synopsis. I to have wondered where David has been and his lack of production. I would guess he is still trying to adjust to the new defensive scheme. He wasn’t the only one having problems with Olsen Monday night. It appeared the only player I saw able to cover Olsen was McDonough when he had one on one coverage with him.
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