A Thought To Ponder About This Years DT Prospects

[yuccaneers]

There will inevitably be a debate that will be waged inside draft war rooms across the NFL landscape. That will pit General Managers, Scouts and even coaches against one another, when it comes to this years group of defensive tackles. The consensus early favorite is Suh, is hands down the better prospect over players like Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma and UCLA's Brian Price, but what many will be debating is whether or not Suh has the potential to continue to grow and develop or has he already hit his proverbial ceiling and maxed out his talent. That will be the one million dollar question general managers will be pondering in the months leading up to the draft.

All three players are projected to be top 15 picks, are all over 300 pounds, all possess explosive play making ability and all seemingly have gotten better year after year. But the question, that has got to be answered, is who has hit that ceiling and who will continue to grow and mature into a dominant force at the NFL level.   

The draft is about projecting what a collegiate player did in college and how it translates into the pro game and the potential of the prospect to continue to get better. Typically players are drafted based on potential and what they can become at the pro level and not as much for what they have done in college, that why every year it seems like there are surprises that seemingly come out of now where to be drafted and produce in the NFL at varying degrees.

So the question I pose to the forum, Is who do you think has a higher ceiling and still has untapped potential?

[Rusty]

Possibly Price. If Sapp is the protype and his attributes were quickness, athleticism, leadership and meanness, then Price seems closest to him.

[nitey]

That is the 100 million dollar question isn't it? Which player has the highest ceiling. The odds are that at least 1 of the three will not transition well to the NFL and even the other two only have moderate odds of success if you go by prior draft years.

A lot of variables play into whether a player drafted at the top of the draft will have success. Looking at college production rarely is a good indicator, so you have to look closely at each players flaws (and they all have them) and determine if the flaws are something that your current coaching staff can address or you can live with.

For example, it was posted in these forums prior to the drafting of Gaines Adams that he had propensity to 'take off plays' and even Gruden on draft day mentioned that he wanted Gaines to 'lead the NFL in effort'. It was a flaw that we thought we could address, but the coaching was never able to overcome it. I also remember seeing that Gaines was considered to be a finesse type of player, relying on his speed to get around tackles rather than developing moves to use his abilities more effectively. Again, our coaching staff wasn't able to overcome that flaw either. I don't think Gaines is a bust - but I don't think he'll be anything other than a somewhat average defensive end.

So in the end, I like to look at the flaws rather than the potential. Using ESPN (because it's easy), this is some of what I see:

On Suh, I have seen this flaw mentioned "Only knock here is that we'd like to see him play with a bit better leverage at the point of attack because he occasionally comes out of his stance too high and struggles to hold ground when teams run at him." and "Not an elite first step but shows good combination of quickness and power." yet these are off set by intangibles like "Continues to improve each year and coaches speak highly of his work ethic."

On McCoy I see that he 'lacks ideal bulk' which to me means that he might tire in games or get pushed around (or disappear) late.

On Price, ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile. That worries me and makes me wonder if the guy is one of those guys that has a great couple of games at the end of the season and rockets up the draft board. He's not mentioned in Kipers or McShay's top lists (not that I consider them to be the holy grail of draft lists).

To that end, perhaps Price given his rapid rise up has the most untapped potential, but he's also in my mind that most likely player that will not transition well to the NFL. If both Suh and McCoy are gone by the 3rd pick, I think I'm in the Okung camp as both our offensive tackles were a weakness this year and while Berry might turn out to be the next Ed Reed, we need to provide a better offensive line than what we had this year.

[Garv]

That is the 100 million dollar question isn't it? Which player has the highest ceiling. The odds are that at least 1 of the three will not transition well to the NFL and even the other two only have moderate odds of success if you go by prior draft years.

A lot of variables play into whether a player drafted at the top of the draft will have success. Looking at college production rarely is a good indicator, so you have to look closely at each players flaws (and they all have them) and determine if the flaws are something that your current coaching staff can address or you can live with.

For example, it was posted in these forums prior to the drafting of Gaines Adams that he had propensity to 'take off plays' and even Gruden on draft day mentioned that he wanted Gaines to 'lead the NFL in effort'. It was a flaw that we thought we could address, but the coaching was never able to overcome it. I also remember seeing that Gaines was considered to be a finesse type of player, relying on his speed to get around tackles rather than developing moves to use his abilities more effectively. Again, our coaching staff wasn't able to overcome that flaw either. I don't think Gaines is a bust - but I don't think he'll be anything other than a somewhat average defensive end.

So in the end, I like to look at the flaws rather than the potential. Using ESPN (because it's easy), this is some of what I see:

On Suh, I have seen this flaw mentioned "Only knock here is that we'd like to see him play with a bit better leverage at the point of attack because he occasionally comes out of his stance too high and struggles to hold ground when teams run at him." and "Not an elite first step but shows good combination of quickness and power." yet these are off set by intangibles like "Continues to improve each year and coaches speak highly of his work ethic."

On McCoy I see that he 'lacks ideal bulk' which to me means that he might tire in games or get pushed around (or disappear) late.

On Price, ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile. That worries me and makes me wonder if the guy is one of those guys that has a great couple of games at the end of the season and rockets up the draft board. He's not mentioned in Kipers or McShay's top lists (not that I consider them to be the holy grail of draft lists).

To that end, perhaps Price given his rapid rise up has the most untapped potential, but he's also in my mind that most likely player that will not transition well to the NFL. If both Suh and McCoy are gone by the 3rd pick, I think I'm in the Okung camp as both our offensive tackles were a weakness this year and while Berry might turn out to be the next Ed Reed, we need to provide a better offensive line than what we had this year.

Another damn good post.
Let me ask you, if the Buc decide to go for Okung, would he replace Penn? I assume he's a LT being projected that high. Not only would thousands of heads explode at Buccaneer draft parties thoughout the state, but wouldn't not addressing the DL early, certainly the defense, be a mistake?
I am certainly with the thinking the Josh needs all the help he can get. Just not sure this is our biggest need. And I now it would be unpopular if very gutsy.

[dalbuc]

Penn allowed 44 combos hits, sacks and pressures. Compare to a guy like Max Starks who isn't a top flight OT who allowed 36 and then compare to top end guys who allowed 23. People here have some wild affinity for Penn, then again Anthony Davis was "good enough" too according to a lot of folks.

Is Penn at his spot worse than Sims at his, no. Is he still a major weak link that has to get upgraded, yes.

[Feel Real Good]

Penn allowed 44 combos hits, sacks and pressures. Compare to a guy like Max Starks who isn't a top flight OT who allowed 36 and then compare to top end guys who allowed 23. People here have some wild affinity for Penn, then again Anthony Davis was "good enough" too according to a lot of folks.

Is Penn at his spot worse than Sims at his, no. Is he still a major weak link that has to get upgraded, yes.

The unfortunate thing with left tackle is that to upgrade you invariably have to use a 1st round pick. The Bucs have a lot of players that could be upgraded, but most of the rest of them could be done with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. That's what stings about replacing Penn, he may only be 10th weakest link, but you have to use your most premium resource to get rid of him.

[dalbuc]

The unfortunate thing with left tackle is that to upgrade you invariably have to use a 1st round pick. The Bucs have a lot of players that could be upgraded, but most of the rest of them could be done with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. That's what stings about replacing Penn, he may only be 10th weakest link, but you have to use your most premium resource to get rid of him.

With Balkuga and Davis and the kid from UM we might get lucky and see someone fall to that early #2 spot but basically you are correct, premium positions demand premium picks.

[Garv]

The unfortunate thing with left tackle is that to upgrade you invariably have to use a 1st round pick. The Bucs have a lot of players that could be upgraded, but most of the rest of them could be done with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. That's what stings about replacing Penn, he may only be 10th weakest link, but you have to use your most premium resource to get rid of him.

With Balkuga and Davis and the kid from UM we might get lucky and see someone fall to that early #2 spot but basically you are correct, premium positions demand premium picks.

OK. Again, I'm obviously coming from the uninformed when it comes to drafting but isn't getting WO help more important right now if we're typing about offense?
I realize the LT position is extremely important but thought Penn covered it more than adequately. Apparently not in the eyes of some.
Hopefully PR can weigh in on this one.

[dalbuc]

OK. Again, I'm obviously coming from the uninformed when it comes to drafting but isn't getting WO help more important right now if we're typing about offense?
I realize the LT position is extremely important but thought Penn covered it more than adequately. Apparently not in the eyes of some.
Hopefully PR can weigh in on this one.

We need WR's but the play of the line was so bad that it simply can't be overlooked. QB>LOT>WR>pretty much everything else.

[Feel Real Good]

OK. Again, I'm obviously coming from the uninformed when it comes to drafting but isn't getting WO help more important right now if we're typing about offense?
I realize the LT position is extremely important but thought Penn covered it more than adequately. Apparently not in the eyes of some.
Hopefully PR can weigh in on this one.

There are two schools of thought. Do you help your young quarterback by fixing your wide receivers to give him more targets to throw to or by fixing your offensive line to give him better protection in the passing game and a better running game to take the pressure off of him? My personal thought is that wide receivers only touch the ball 6-7 times a game, at best. Offensive linemen affect every play on offense.

[Madman]

Everything about Suh's game seems to translate to the NFL IMO.

He was the center of attention for every offensive line he played against and yet he still DOMINATED. There are highlight clips of Suh beating double and triple teams to get a sack or TFL. Great functional strength, very good quickness, tremendous hands, and very rare playmaking ability as evidenced by his high number of pass break ups and blocked kicks.

Most importantly (for me) is the guy PRODUCED. 12 sacks for a DT is sick plus he led his team in tackles which is quite a feat for a lineman.

McCoy is a nice player with very good quickness but his production and presence isn't even close to Suh IMO.

Really don't know much about Price.

As I've said before, Bucs should do anything within reason to get Suh. I think he's the difference maker and centerpiece the Bucs need on D. Rams should be a willing trading partner come April.

[Garv]

OK. Again, I'm obviously coming from the uninformed when it comes to drafting but isn't getting WO help more important right now if we're typing about offense?
I realize the LT position is extremely important but thought Penn covered it more than adequately. Apparently not in the eyes of some.
Hopefully PR can weigh in on this one.

We need WR's but the play of the line was so bad that it simply can't be overlooked. QB>LOT>WR>pretty much everything else.

And do you think the LT we're talking about is as good as some do? Hey, if he is and the Bucs have the guts to make another pick that will make the fans scream? LOL I might like it after all.
And we do have those two 2's.
But that damned DL.

[nitey]

Garv,

My thinking is that the play of both lines sucked this year and I'm also of the school that believes that the real game is played in the trenches. I would rather take the best offensive lineman of the draft if I can't get the best defensive lineman. Now, most analysts seem to think that the difference between Suh and McCoy is a hairs breath, but I have to believe that the drop off to the 3rd best defensive lineman is greater than that. And in my next series of team review which I'll have out tomorrow, I'm going to point out that the play of the offensive line was one of the two primary reasons why this team only had three wins this year.

As far as which position he would play, does it really matter? The play from both tackle positions I felt was bottom 5th of the league. If OKung could play effective LT, then let Penn, Dotson and Trueblood battle for the starting RT position or sign a decent RT in FA. But for our offense to be effective next year, we need to get much better play from our tackle positions.

And Madman, I disagree. I think that Okung or Berry will be excellent pro's, with pro bowl possibilities. I wouldn't trade one of them PLUS a high 2nd rounder for Suh. Suh, may or may not be a difference maker, but he's probably not much more of a difference maker than Okung would be on the offensive line or Berry would be at Safety (even though I'm against the Berry pick at #3 because we need a DT or OT more).

JMO.

[Garv]

Garv,

My thinking is that the play of both lines sucked this year and I'm also of the school that believes that the real game is played in the trenches. I would rather take the best offensive lineman of the draft if I can't get the best defensive lineman. Now, most analysts seem to think that the difference between Suh and McCoy is a hairs breath, but I have to believe that the drop off to the 3rd best defensive lineman is greater than that. And in my next series of team review which I'll have out tomorrow, I'm going to point out that the play of the offensive line was one of the two primary reasons why this team only had three wins this year.

As far as which position he would play, does it really matter? The play from both tackle positions I felt was bottom 5th of the league. If OKung could play effective LT, then let Penn, Dotson and Trueblood battle for the starting RT position or sign a decent RT in FA. But for our offense to be effective next year, we need to get much better play from our tackle positions.

And Madman, I disagree. I think that Okung or Berry will be excellent pro's, with pro bowl possibilities. I wouldn't trade one of them PLUS a high 2nd rounder for Suh. Suh, may or may not be a difference maker, but he's probably not much more of a difference maker than Okung would be on the offensive line or Berry would be at Safety (even though I'm against the Berry pick at #3 because we need a DT or OT more).

JMO.

Interesting, I get what you're typing and certainly agree about the trenches.
But at 3, isn't it likely that McKoy would be there anyway?
We're going to get a damn good player no matter what, are we not?

[SonnyCrockett]

OK. Again, I'm obviously coming from the uninformed when it comes to drafting but isn't getting WO help more important right now if we're typing about offense?
I realize the LT position is extremely important but thought Penn covered it more than adequately. Apparently not in the eyes of some.
Hopefully PR can weigh in on this one.

There are two schools of thought. Do you help your young quarterback by fixing your wide receivers to give him more targets to throw to or by fixing your offensive line to give him better protection in the passing game and a better running game to take the pressure off of him? My personal thought is that wide receivers only touch the ball 6-7 times a game, at best. Offensive linemen affect every play on offense.

Which do you buy first, a set of big shiny rims, or the car?

A team that finished 27th in 3rd down conversions, 28th in first downs, 24th in pass offense, 23rd in rush offense, and 30th in points per game would not be making a mistake by fixing a need on the offensive line.

The saying "'it all starts in the trenches'" applies more on the offensive end. DL is very important, but skill at the other positions on defense can compensate more than they do on the offensive side of the ball.