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: March 03, 2007, 09:10:14 PM

This is a confusing day.  Here's an attempt to make sense of it.  My "most likely scenarios".  Keep in mind I'm tired and drinking ;)

1) Plummer

HOU is shopping Carr.  Plummer supposedly would go to Kubiak.  Kubiak knows Jake was screwed hard by DEN.  Den wants a pick for Plummer.  Kubiak knows Jake has the leverage to say nope, I'll just retire.  And the will to do it.  He can sit as long as he wants, and eventually get released, and then walk into HOU already knowing the O inside out.  So Kubiak sticks to his guns and says no, no pick for You!

That's where Bruce comes in.  He sees what's happening (hell, the whole football-watching world does) and knowing it's a 4th for Carr, offers same for Jake, and will work a trade.  Jake then pulls the expected "I'm gonna retire".  If this was not expected we could pull out completely, no harm, no foul.  Bruce still sees leverage here and instead of pulling out gets a lower price. 

Kubiak didn't want to give a pick for plummer, but he might not mind giving a player.  At a guess we're probably talking about how to make that deal work.  If not there then somewhere.  With his current status as the Top FA left, he coommands a high price, and someone will likely make an offer he will be happy with.

Jake can now Retire (for at least 3, which will end any chance of a return),  Fail to report (no cost to us), or report.  Those are his options.  If he retires it's for good, and I'd think given his age, earning potential, and the fact he waited until now to decide, that is highly unlikely.  Fail to report, take a year off, we can still trade him next year.  Report, and if we feel he's serious, We can trade Simms.  Report just to shaft us, and his carreer is over, and he'll feel the pinch in other ways too.  That's not a course of action that gains him anything -- and he doesn't have the same motivation to screw us that he did with DEN. 

Even we end up releasing him I don't think it costs us much.  It involves a bit of a gamble, but we had a chance to pull out and didn't, so I read that as saying we think there is something workable.

2) Garcia

I'm not sold he really wanted to go to OAK.  I think we were his preferred landing place from everything we heard prior.  OAK was just a place to land since we might not be calling him.  He broke of talks with Al the minute we called.

We also offered him more than Plummer apparently (though I am not 100 on this).  If true, This could be read that his price went up, or that we never really wanted Plummer as much as Jeff.  I vote the latter, as we were essentially offering Plummer less than Simms, which makes no sense as he is clearly better than Simms.

My guess is that we were looking at a Garcia/Carr scenario all along, with a possible Plummer/Grads or McCown as the second alternative.  With Simms to be traded either way.  Third would be Garcia/Simms or Draft or Grads.  Plummer/Simms makes no sense as Plummer is definitely not the mentor type.



So that's my attempt at figgering this one out.  Flame away.

alldaway

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#1 : March 03, 2007, 09:25:10 PM

Nothing to flame away seeing it makes sense sort of. ??? ??? ???

OpTiOnMaStA

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#2 : March 03, 2007, 09:54:21 PM

Well you make some really solid points there. I like the way that you lay this out, but really you are only giving one scenario out of a multitude of possible happenings from here on out. Maybe we can break it down in a slightly different way. You did an outstanding job laying out that one scenario. So I will give my attempt.

1. We attempt to trade for Jake Plummer on day 1 of FA.

--There are a million different ways to look at this. One way that you didn't mention is that Plummer is who we wanted all along and that we just got caught with our pants down that he didn't actually want to come and play for us. The next is that Plummer wants to play but not for us (Houston). Another way to look at it is that he just doesn't want to play football anymore and / or his body can't take it anymore. He really is retiring and all of this means nothing to him (because nobody can tell him that he can't retire). Finally, the scenario that he is going to essentially take a year off and not report is there. So let's explore these scenarios...

--1. Plummer is who we wanted all along. Well this scenario sucks for the Bucs, but luckily we still got our backup in Garcia. Plummer is who we wanted all along but he doesn't want to play for us. If this is the case, it opens up a multitude of trade scenarios for him going to Houston and Oakland and probably other teams as well. I will just write about the most talked about theories here just for the daily recap. One possibility is that we could attempt to trade Plummer away for a pick in the draft. My guess is that we will get nothing higher than a 4th rounder for him. This doesn't really seem like such a great deal because of the fact that we had to give up essentially a 4th rounder for him from next year's draft. Also, it is doubtful that Houston will want to trade away a draft pick because they weren't willing to do so with Denver. Why would they give one to us? It seems like any scenario involving a straight up draft pick probably involved Oakland. For a minute, it seemed as though Oakland would sign Garcia away from us yesterday but luckily, we got him AND the Raiders have to go through us to get Plummer. There has been the possibility thrown around that we will attempt to move up in the draft by dealing Plummer to the Raiders with our #4 overall pick for the #1 overall pick. I really don't see this happening. I think that is sort of wishful thinking. There is a possibility, though, that we will trade for a player on the Raiders such as Moss or Porter. This also sort of seems like a longshot because we now have Garcia. Presuming Garcia is our starting QB, I highly doubt we want to have turmoil with a WR again. I like Moss but I don't think this is the right situation for us to be trading for him. Also, if Moss gets out of Oakland that highly increases the liklihood that the Raiders will be drafting Calvin Johnson. I don't think we want that. Next is the opportunity for us to trade for Carr. This seems to be what I would say is the most likely scenario if we are going to be dealing Plummer away. Carr is younger, mobile, strong armed, and experienced. He would look like an attractive option for us to have for the future here or to use this season if Garcia gets hurt or just doesn't work out. With this scenario, it seems as though Simms is on his way out the door. Perhaps Simms is the one who gets traded to the Raiders for a pick or something.

--2. Assuming Plummer only wants to play for Houston, we can explore some of the options listed above such as a trade for Carr. If the Texans don't want to give up picks then they may give up a player.

--3. Jake just doesn't want to play football anymore. This is acceptable for us. If this happens, we don't owe the Broncos anything except a conditional draft pick. This means we possibly only give them a 5th, 6th, 7th rounder (I think, anyways). This really isn't a big deal to us. We had him in a position that any other team couldn't get to him unless they went through us and we could have even possibly used his services. There was always the chance he would have a change of heart.

--4. Plummer just wants to take the year off. That's ok too. If he wants to take the year off, we aren't responsible for much (if anything). The Broncos can get about 3 million dollars back from him. Next year if somebody wants him they have to go through us. We own the rights to somebody - cool. Also, he may want to play here and we may be in a bad QB situation. He could end up helping us out a year from now.

2. We sign Jeff Garcia on day 2 of FA.

--There are a lot of ways to look at this. I don't believe what Allen said that he wanted both QBs all along. What for? I can understand having a stable, but do you really need 2 30+ year old QBs on the team who don't want to sit on the bench? I just can't see that as the plan. Therefore, I am going to just say that Garcia was a backup insurance policy. If we really wanted Plummer on Friday, we weren't going to lure Garcia here. Garcia had to know it was him vs. Simms for the QB position. He says he doesn't mind if Plummer would walk in the door right after him but I don't think he knew about it ahead of time. If he did, he would be in Oakland. I think other than that this is a pretty self explanitory type of signing. We needed to bolster the position, we got a QB to do that.

3. So what does all this mean? What can happen?

--1. Jake reports to camp to play for the Buccaneers. Plummer doesn't retire, we have Garcia and we have Simms. It is a fine QB battle and one of them comes out being our starting QB. This is pretty simple but highly doubtful. I don't think Plummer wants to be Garcia's backup and vise versa. Simms would probably accept the backup duties behind one of these guys. He doesn't have the starting experience they do.

--2. We trade with Houston. I am going to say that this is ONLY for Carr or another player. Since I can't think of a player we might want that they would be willing to trade to us, I am going to just say Carr. We end up with Carr to compete with Garcia. This might piss Simms off a bit because we now have a young guy who we wanted badly enough to trade for and has been highly touted. It even may mean that we will trade Simms away. I like this scenario. We get a young QB who I think fits what we want to do here to compete with Garcia rather than Simms. Carr will take a while to learn, but probably will play following one season of tutoring by Garcia and Gruden. Garcia may just be a one year type of guy. Carr will still have some good years left in him if this is the case and we can probably get something in return for Simms. He never fit here anyways.

--3. We trade with Oakland. This is where things get hairy. Al Davis hates us and probably hates us even more now that we got Garcia. He probably isn't going to be willing to let us move up to #1 just for #4 and Plummer. We aren't going to give him anything either because we're stingy. He probably wants to unload Moss or Porter on us for Plummer. That would be an amply fair deal for him because those guys hate being there. it would be like when we traded Keyshawn Johnson. We got something for nothing. He wants to do the same. I highly doubt we will be trading with Oakland. I don't think we want any distractions here and Moss could be one and Porter is a jerk. We would rather sit tight and get Calvin.

The bottom line is that I think that a trade with Houston is much more likely. We don't work with Oakland since Gruden and Allen came here. I suppose we could swing a deal for Carr out of this but it has to be if that is what Jake wants. Right now I don't know what he wants. When he figures out if he wants to play football or not we will know a lot more.

Ladyfan

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#3 : March 03, 2007, 10:01:22 PM

Sounds right to me.  I'm buying.


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#4 : March 03, 2007, 10:10:48 PM

Or the simple possibility: like Houston we also think that Plummer is better than Carr, and we really wanted to add both Plummer and Garcia.

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#5 : March 03, 2007, 11:07:42 PM

Even if Plummer was our goal, we still come out good.  Trades fall through fairly often, and if this was one of those cases, we rebounded nicely and quickly with the Garcia signing...
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