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Obamessiah

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#45 : March 01, 2010, 09:38:19 PM

IMO a draft selection should be based on film.... Not because a guy can run really fast in shorts, in a straight line.

The only meaningful part imo is the interviews.

Well, if he can't run fast in shorts in a straight line, he sure as hell isn't going to run faster in pads playing football. The combine is just a single tool, one of many, used to help evaluate a player. It is not the entire process.

Trojan52

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#46 : March 01, 2010, 09:49:53 PM

Oh.... so THAT's how the combine works...

Thanks for clearing that up Chuckles....

 :o




 ::)





bfarbs

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#47 : March 01, 2010, 09:50:53 PM

Surprised the bar didnt slip in his hands given his tendancy to fumble.

Obamessiah

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#48 : March 01, 2010, 09:55:30 PM

Oh.... so THAT's how the combine works...

Thanks for clearing that up Chuckles....

 :o




 ::)

Well, on the one hand we've got you telling us the combine is worthless except for the interviews, on the other is a league of paid professionals who go to it every year. They seem to disagree with your evaluation of its importance.

Trojan52

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#49 : March 01, 2010, 10:00:51 PM

Are you a paid draft professional Chuckles? Did I offend the countless number of hours you spent covering the combine?

Don't take it personal, it was a jab at you expaining what the combine was to Boid and I, as if we're un-aware.

We gave our opinions, you'll see we stated our view as such.... Obviously the NFL combine is successful in generating profits to the NFL network and provides 'valuable' info coaches can't gather anywhere else..... ::)


Trojan52

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#50 : March 01, 2010, 10:15:07 PM

Who was acting?

Move along "Chuckles"....


3paths

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#51 : March 02, 2010, 03:00:51 AM

The combine/skill competition reps are BS anyway. They aren't full extension reps in most cases and they are bouncing most of the time.

LtFox

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#52 : March 02, 2010, 03:49:45 PM

Combine numbers mean ZERO as to how good a football player you are.

And yet they keep right on having the thing. I don't think anyone is arguing that it's a flawless system. But something doesn't have to be absolutely perfect to still be useful.


It measures everything except football ability...hence players like Dexter Jackson, Kenyatta Walker, Gaines Adams, etc. get drafted. Yes, it isn't a perfect system, but it isn't even a good system. How does Tom Brady go in round #6 and Ryan Leaf go 2nd over all? I'll tell you how, because drafting players is a complete crapshoot. There is no such thing as a "sure thing". None. The combine makes for good TV, but teams would be much better off drafting on how they played in school with little regard to a 40 time, bench press, etc.

How do you think Wes Welker would do at the combine? How about Hines Ward? Conversely, do you remember when JaMarcus Russell worked out? Some scouts called it "the best workout a QB had EVER had". How has he done.....well.....he sucks. Crapshoot.

dalbuc

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#53 : March 02, 2010, 05:03:27 PM


It measures everything except football ability...hence players like Dexter Jackson, Kenyatta Walker, Gaines Adams, etc. get drafted. Yes, it isn't a perfect system, but it isn't even a good system. How does Tom Brady go in round #6 and Ryan Leaf go 2nd over all? I'll tell you how, because drafting players is a complete crapshoot. There is no such thing as a "sure thing". None. The combine makes for good TV, but teams would be much better off drafting on how they played in school with little regard to a 40 time, bench press, etc.

Wait, Adams didn't play well in college and get all those All American honors? Walker didn't blow up the combine in some crazy way that got him drafted. Leaf was a machine in college and put up crazy numbers. His film was large. You can't blame the combine for those guys and really even the famed Mamula thing wasn't combine driven - he was productive in college and the combine seemed to confirm that level of productivity.  Productivity blinds people just as much as combine numbers - if not more. Charles Rodgers was insanely productive on film. Johnathan Sullivan was big on film. BMW was all film because his combine stunk on ice.  Very few guys get drafted by teams other than he Raiders without a ton of good film

Teams would likely do as well firing their entire scouting staff and just taking Mike Mayock's rankings because they for as much time and effort as they sink into understanding players they still don't do it very well and while Mayock isn't perfect I doubt he's any worse than the 32 pro who do it day in and day out.



All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

LtFox

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#54 : March 02, 2010, 05:45:21 PM


It measures everything except football ability...hence players like Dexter Jackson, Kenyatta Walker, Gaines Adams, etc. get drafted. Yes, it isn't a perfect system, but it isn't even a good system. How does Tom Brady go in round #6 and Ryan Leaf go 2nd over all? I'll tell you how, because drafting players is a complete crapshoot. There is no such thing as a "sure thing". None. The combine makes for good TV, but teams would be much better off drafting on how they played in school with little regard to a 40 time, bench press, etc.

Wait, Adams didn't play well in college and get all those All American honors? Walker didn't blow up the combine in some crazy way that got him drafted. Leaf was a machine in college and put up crazy numbers. His film was large. You can't blame the combine for those guys and really even the famed Mamula thing wasn't combine driven - he was productive in college and the combine seemed to confirm that level of productivity. Productivity blinds people just as much as combine numbers - if not more. Charles Rodgers was insanely productive on film. Johnathan Sullivan was big on film. BMW was all film because his combine stunk on ice. Very few guys get drafted by teams other than he Raiders without a ton of good film

Teams would likely do as well firing their entire scouting staff and just taking Mike Mayock's rankings because they for as much time and effort as they sink into understanding players they still don't do it very well and while Mayock isn't perfect I doubt he's any worse than the 32 pro who do it day in and day out.




I agree that college production produces a plethora of "busts" too, but I would rather use college production to guage talent then drafting a running back doing a broad jump, high jump, cone drill, etc. It is ridiculous, really. It plays to my point that it is all a big gamble. I have read where more then one scout calls the draft a crapshoot. You do the homework and then pray you are right. I liken it to the monkey that out performs top money managers by throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal's ticker page. These guys just don't know, my friend. They are throwing darts just like Raven the Chimp....except they aren't as talented.



dalbuc

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#55 : March 02, 2010, 06:04:57 PM

I agree that college production produces a plethora of "busts" too, but I would rather use college production to guage talent then drafting a running back doing a broad jump, high jump, cone drill, etc. It is ridiculous, really. It plays to my point that it is all a big gamble. I have read where more then one scout calls the draft a crapshoot. You do the homework and then pray you are right. I liken it to the monkey that out performs top money managers by throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal's ticker page. These guys just don't know, my friend. They are throwing darts just like Raven the Chimp....except they aren't as talented.

It isn't an either or for anyone with a brain. The combine is part of the picture. For example, Haden ran a slow time for a CB. Does that mean you dont' draft hi? No, but it does mean you might want to look at him again and study weaknesses related to that measure. Same with McCoy. You might look at the tape and say, "Nope, doesn't matter" but the combine just adds data points.

There's no doubt that the NFL might be the worst HR people on the planet.  The whole failure to understand what they are doing is outlined nicely here: http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/pdf/massey_thaler_overconfidence_nfl_draft.pdf

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

LtFox

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#56 : March 02, 2010, 07:02:58 PM

I agree that college production produces a plethora of "busts" too, but I would rather use college production to guage talent then drafting a running back doing a broad jump, high jump, cone drill, etc. It is ridiculous, really. It plays to my point that it is all a big gamble. I have read where more then one scout calls the draft a crapshoot. You do the homework and then pray you are right. I liken it to the monkey that out performs top money managers by throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal's ticker page. These guys just don't know, my friend. They are throwing darts just like Raven the Chimp....except they aren't as talented.

It isn't an either or for anyone with a brain. The combine is part of the picture. For example, Haden ran a slow time for a CB. Does that mean you dont' draft hi? No, but it does mean you might want to look at him again and study weaknesses related to that measure. Same with McCoy. You might look at the tape and say, "Nope, doesn't matter" but the combine just adds data points.

There's no doubt that the NFL might be the worst HR people on the planet. The whole failure to understand what they are doing is outlined nicely here: http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/pdf/massey_thaler_overconfidence_nfl_draft.pdf

Hey...don't get me wrong...more information is usually good (unless it tips the odds in favor of you drafting a Dexter Jackson), but I am just not sold on the process, or more importantly, the results. In fact, if I were a 1st round player I would nevr subject myself to the combine. First round talent, in most cases, can only go lower. If you are a small school phenom that wants to catapult from the 5-6 round into the 2nd with a great workout then more power to you. Other then that...you are wasting your time. If Suh didn't workout and only took the physical he still goes top-3. Same with McCoy.

Obamessiah

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#57 : March 02, 2010, 08:59:14 PM


It measures everything except football ability...hence players like Dexter Jackson, Kenyatta Walker, Gaines Adams, etc. get drafted. Yes, it isn't a perfect system, but it isn't even a good system. How does Tom Brady go in round #6 and Ryan Leaf go 2nd over all? I'll tell you how, because drafting players is a complete crapshoot. There is no such thing as a "sure thing". None. The combine makes for good TV, but teams would be much better off drafting on how they played in school with little regard to a 40 time, bench press, etc.

Wait, Adams didn't play well in college and get all those All American honors? Walker didn't blow up the combine in some crazy way that got him drafted. Leaf was a machine in college and put up crazy numbers. His film was large. You can't blame the combine for those guys and really even the famed Mamula thing wasn't combine driven - he was productive in college and the combine seemed to confirm that level of productivity.  Productivity blinds people just as much as combine numbers - if not more. Charles Rodgers was insanely productive on film. Johnathan Sullivan was big on film. BMW was all film because his combine stunk on ice.  Very few guys get drafted by teams other than he Raiders without a ton of good film

The top three career passing leaders in NCAA football history:

Timmy Chang, Hawaii: (2000-2004) 17,072 yards
Ty Detmer, BYU: (1988-91) 15,031
Colt Brennan, Hawaii: (2005-07) 14,193

LtFox

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#58 : March 03, 2010, 07:50:37 AM


It measures everything except football ability...hence players like Dexter Jackson, Kenyatta Walker, Gaines Adams, etc. get drafted. Yes, it isn't a perfect system, but it isn't even a good system. How does Tom Brady go in round #6 and Ryan Leaf go 2nd over all? I'll tell you how, because drafting players is a complete crapshoot. There is no such thing as a "sure thing". None. The combine makes for good TV, but teams would be much better off drafting on how they played in school with little regard to a 40 time, bench press, etc.

Wait, Adams didn't play well in college and get all those All American honors? Walker didn't blow up the combine in some crazy way that got him drafted. Leaf was a machine in college and put up crazy numbers. His film was large. You can't blame the combine for those guys and really even the famed Mamula thing wasn't combine driven - he was productive in college and the combine seemed to confirm that level of productivity. Productivity blinds people just as much as combine numbers - if not more. Charles Rodgers was insanely productive on film. Johnathan Sullivan was big on film. BMW was all film because his combine stunk on ice. Very few guys get drafted by teams other than he Raiders without a ton of good film

The top three career passing leaders in NCAA football history:

Timmy Chang, Hawaii: (2000-2004) 17,072 yards
Ty Detmer, BYU: (1988-91) 15,031
Colt Brennan, Hawaii: (2005-07) 14,193


LOL....good post Chuckles. I guess production has its drawbacks too:)
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