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Pick6

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#30 : March 03, 2010, 07:35:22 PM

2a could be a hot commodity, we will have all night to take offers on the pick before the second round begins the next morning.

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#31 : March 03, 2010, 07:49:02 PM

why would we trade #35?  At #35 we are basically getting a 1st rounder still.  Only so many spots on the team.  Quality over quantity.


Pick6

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#32 : March 03, 2010, 08:05:23 PM

why would we trade #35?  At #35 we are basically getting a 1st rounder still.  Only so many spots on the team.  Quality over quantity.

i am leery of trading our picks in the top 75, doubly so about trading out of a round entirely (which i wouldn't endorse).  that's why it'll be nice to fish for offers overnight, check the deals against our draft board, and hold the cards as to whether we do the deal....for instance, if we could drop down about 5-8 spots in the 2nd to pick up an extra 4th, would it be worth it? maybe, especially if there are enough guys still on the board that we like alot and one is bound to be there at your new selection spot.  in a draft where you might get 2nd round-quality players in the mid-4th due to the influx of juniors declaring, trading down is less scary and 4th and 5th rounders can net you starter-quality players

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#33 : March 03, 2010, 10:21:04 PM

I think the Bucs should try to get extra picks by maybe trading down a couple spots in the second or even the first. If possible. But to trade a 1st, or 2nd next year is stupid. There will still be talent in next years draft and there will still be players that everyone falls in love with. After this season we could lose Rudd and Penn so we might need to address those issues in next years draft.

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#34 : March 03, 2010, 11:46:04 PM

AGAIN - you aren't assured of better draft, just because you trade down for more picks.

We're trying to make better chili, not more chili...just because it's cheaper.

You sell better chili, you give away a lot of cheap chili.

This may be counter-intuitive for some, but you build a team with draft picks - that means you select STARTERS in this draft - because we don't have any starters.

When you have seen guys like Dungy and Gruden trading down, it was because we already HAD a strong nucleus to build around, we could use the value of a the second round to find guys that don't necessarily have to start and regardless if their ready or not, you definitely don't need them to start. It gives guys more time to learn from the better guys in front of them and makes guys considered to have lesser talent coming out of college, time to develop.

To prove this out, we once had defensive back-up's that could start in any other NFL city...

We DON'T have that situation any longer. The guys that started then, left or retired, and the guys behind the starters left, and the guys we have starting now (with the exception of Talib) can't start anywhere else in the NFL.

That means we don't get better by trading down. This is the rare time in your lives that you will HAVE to pay the full price of admission in order to get back to an elite status.

You trade up to improve the quality at the position of greatest need - ala, Josh Freeman. If you need to get to an elite status you can A) Sign the BEST free agent at the position of greatest need (we failed in our attempt to do this last year - Haynesworth) B) Trade for the best tight end in the NFL and extend his contract, or C) DRAFT the BPA by trading-up to get the rare talent when you get close to a once in a decade player...

We whiffed on A), we signed a B) and we drafted a C) last season - since there isn't a free agent or trade that can fill the DT spot and we're building a team to compete for at least a decade with the skill players we find this year - that can ONLY be done by trading UP to get the BEST defensive tackle to come out in 10 years.

YOU GO GET SUH.

one draft pick to leverage an entire defense is NOT a high cost. Buying season tickets when your clients are going out of business, and you sold your boat in order to pay for your kids braces - causes you to see the game the owners are playing a little differently...

Like they say: "...it's just business..."

Put your money where your mouth is - build it and we will come - build it half-way and half will come....

Just get Suh.

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#35 : March 03, 2010, 11:57:15 PM

Draft Suh.  Everything else will work itself out.

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#36 : March 04, 2010, 09:35:51 AM

As deep as this draft is, the best thing to do as far as stockpiling draft picks is trade down from #3.

For example...

1. Rams - Suh
2. Detroit - McCoy. 
3. Seattle - Bradford (for #6 and #38)
4. Washington - Okung (since Samuels retired)
5. KC - (JPP or Morgan)
6. San Fran - Clausen (for #13 and 77 (3rd))
7. Cleveland - (JPP or Morgan - the guy KC didn't take)
8. Okland - Eric Berry
9. Buffalo - Anthony Davis
10. Jacksonvillie - Rolando McClain
11. Denver - Dez Bryant
12. Miami - Dan Williams
13. Pittsburgh - Joe Haden (for #18, 4th, and 5th round picks)
14. Seattle - C.J. Spiller
15. NY Giants - Earl Thomas (read the Giants like him in the 1st)
16. Tennessee - Carlos Dunlap
17. San Francisco - Mike Iupati
18. BUCS - Brian Price

With this scenario... I think it's legitimate (likely - probably not, but it is possible), the Bucs will add a pick in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds and still get a solid DT.

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#37 : March 04, 2010, 12:02:53 PM

That would be nice, but there is a very good chance Price is gone by 18. I wouldn't wanna see us move back past 12.

Draft Aaron Donald



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#38 : March 04, 2010, 12:24:58 PM

I think Price or Williams will be available at 18.  I used a little common knowledge/sense and ESPN to guage teams needs and where they might go.  Also used Mayock's top 25 as to placing players at certain positions to teams.

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#39 : March 04, 2010, 12:30:54 PM

Dan Williams is a nose tackle, not a three technique. He isn't really an option for us in the first round. He had 6 sacks in his entire collage career. Not really what we are looking for.

Draft Aaron Donald



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#40 : March 04, 2010, 12:36:04 PM

Dan Williams is a nose tackle, not a three technique. He isn't really an option for us in the first round. He had 6 sacks in his entire collage career. Not really what we are looking for.

Which is why the Dolphins would take Williams and why Price could fall.

Pick6

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#41 : March 04, 2010, 12:46:21 PM

AGAIN - you aren't assured of better draft, just because you trade down for more picks.

in most trade down scenarios, a GM will know who they've got a high likelihood of getting with the highest pick you're trading down to, and that's the primary driver.  if you can trade down and still have one of the top 3 guys currently available and on your board at the lower position, that's important to know.  the whole draft pool is also graded out by round - the reason teams spend 3 months tinkering with draft boards and looking at film is so they can trade down knowing what to expect even in parts of the draft where they aren't expecting to pick and acting accordingly.

this is another reason the points chart is fairly irrelevant.  the decisions are made based on the assets projected to be available based on circumstances in that draft and, more specifically, at the time of the pick.....people don't just trade picks based on abstract expectations not tied to this year's talent pool or the players available at your pick and at the pick you might trade down to.  this is why swapping picks for picks before the draft (and before you're on the clock or close to it) is very rare.

JDouble

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#42 : March 04, 2010, 01:04:47 PM

Quote
AGAIN - you aren't assured of better draft, just because you trade down for more picks.

Nothing is garaunteed in the draft, but the more picks you have, the more chances you get, which does raise the likelyhood of getting a good player.

Draft Aaron Donald



The White Tiger

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#43 : March 05, 2010, 07:44:41 PM

The more chances you get to draft players considered slightly less good than the premium players at the top of the draft - does NOT improve the talent at specific positions. If you have loads of CB's, it won't do you any good to get a good CB in a lower round.

If you currently have 3rd and 4th round draftees starting at the position of greatest need - and the talent is NOT performing - drafting more 3rd and 4th rounders to man this position isn't going to improve your team.

We have IGNORED the position of greatest need so often that now we have no choice - a late 1st rounder, or an early 2nd rounder won't provide the talent that a #1 thru #3 overall selection will at the position we have refused to upgrade over the last decade.

What you are describing is perceived value of the 2nd and 3rd rounds paying off at a higher rate than 1st round picks do. Unfortunately the value is hidden in the averages, jdouble - only the good teams realize the value of the second round, because they aren't relying on them to start immediately. Conversely, if you're a bad team - it's probably because you haven't done a good job of drafting anyway.

The other thing hidden in the averages is the fact that it doesn't tell you if more of the better players were from the top of the 2nd - or if there was a difference in where you picked in the round.

The reality is, in this draft - we don't need to trade-down - we'll have the 3rd pick in every round of this draft, so we'll be able to get players at certain positions that could/should have been selected one round higher (this theory actually shoots down the idea that better talent exists in lower rounds - otherwise there would be no additional value attached to getting a player with a 1st round grade, in the 2nd round).

Only teams with strong starters find value in the 2nd round - so you can't make the case that more options in lower rounds offer ANY more value.

If you have strong starters, draft well and have high draft picks - you're going to skew the average.

The NFL distributes options for the purpose of allowing their members to acquire talent. They don't FORCE the members to acquire that talent, but they do make sure every team has more than enough revenue to be competitive. The owners of bad teams either get better by selecting better players, or they lose so often that they cannot earn additional revenue.

The best talent is at the top of every round - it would do us NO good to trade down with a team with a low 2nd round pick. The talent obviously declines as you move away from the 1st round.

If you have a great need - you pick the best player at the top of the round. We happen to be a few picks away from the best player at the position of greatest need.

Go Get Suh.

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The White Tiger

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#44 : March 05, 2010, 08:51:58 PM

AGAIN - you aren't assured of better draft, just because you trade down for more picks.

in most trade down scenarios, a GM will know who they've got a high likelihood of getting with the highest pick you're trading down to, and that's the primary driver.

No, I don't think you can assume that winning is driving every team. You can't assume that every team is trying to get the best talent - because you have to PAY for better talent. Also, some teams are looking for the most talent they can get for the least amount of money.

Teams that want the best talent...they can get, for the amount of money they are willing to pay - don't have winning as their highest priority. These teams tell their fans how much talent exists in the lower rounds to justify spending less.

if you can trade down and still have one of the top 3 guys currently available and on your board at the lower position, that's important to know.  the whole draft pool is also graded out by round - the reason teams spend 3 months tinkering with draft boards and looking at film is so they can trade down knowing what to expect even in parts of the draft where they aren't expecting to pick and acting accordingly.

I should think that the first round doesn't need any tinkering - those should be the easiest. Teams don't get to create their own draft position - it determined by on-field performance. The crappier you perform, the higher you pick...which just so happens to coincide with the fair market price for the best talent

If your team sucks because it has crappy talent - then it does not have NFL quality at the starting position. It doesn't improve your team by picking more back-up players. If your team has crappy starters and then decides to trade down - they are calling you an idiot. They're betting you won't notice that even though they said they were going to build through the draft, they don't have any intentions of getting the best players available - because it's WAAAAYYY too expensive to draft elite players. They want you to think that they have figured out the secret to finding talent - you do it in the cheapest lower rounds.

this is another reason the points chart is fairly irrelevant.  the decisions are made based on the assets projected to be available based on circumstances in that draft and, more specifically, at the time of the pick.....people don't just trade picks based on abstract expectations not tied to this year's talent pool or the players available at your pick and at the pick you might trade down to.  this is why swapping picks for picks before the draft (and before you're on the clock or close to it) is very rare.

This years talent is rare and if you need to move up to get the best athlete in a decade at the position of greatest need on your team - you move up and get him. You will never have a better opportunity.

We currently have 10 picks - Last year Dallas and New England had more than every team, and they only had 12 picks - and Dallas didn't get a pick in the 1st or 2nd round, did any of the 3 3rd rounders or 3 4th rounders start?

In most drafts you only ever can expect to have 7 picks - therefore anything over this is gravy. If we traded one to get the player we really needed - we would still have 2 more picks than we could expect.

PLUS - a team that signs 10 picks has to come up with the money for 3 additional players than normal - therefore more picks, that won't start, soak up more resources.

Move up and fill the glaring hole and it will address the entire defense.

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