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DanTurksGhost

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« : March 15, 2007, 12:56:51 PM »

I just picked this up off RW. I'd never heard this quote from Billick before:

There is a reason why Bill Walsh never took a first-round quarterback. If you're going to crapshoot, don't do it in the first round…No matter how good an evaluator you are, there's always a Ryan Leaf out there."

- Brian Billick


bradentonian

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« #1 : March 15, 2007, 01:00:50 PM »

It all goes back to risk vs. reward.  It's unfortunate and ironic that the teams that are in the best position to pick a franchise QB in the draft are also the teams that need the most help and thus can least afford to risk a bust.


Bucs Capacitor

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« #2 : March 15, 2007, 01:03:05 PM »

Yeah, but for every Ryan Leaf, there's almost always another Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.

DanTurksGhost

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« #3 : March 15, 2007, 01:06:42 PM »

Also this:

As a side note, Lewin writes this of JaMarcus Russell in the Byron Leftwich piece (the book was written last offseason, and he was comparing the two burly hurlers):

In the next couple of years, expect scouts to fall in love with the similarly talented, but vastly worse, JaMarcus Russell of LSU.

Of course that was before Russell completed over 68 percent of his passes as a junior.

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« #4 : March 15, 2007, 01:09:55 PM »

I think that's crap.    Weren't more than 50% of Superbowl winning QB's 1st round draft picks?

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« #5 : March 15, 2007, 01:15:08 PM »

Yeah, but for every Ryan Leaf, there's almost always another Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.

Exactly, it can go either way.

DanTurksGhost

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« #6 : March 15, 2007, 01:48:47 PM »

I think that's crap.    Weren't more than 50% of Superbowl winning QB's 1st round draft picks?

But the other side of that coin becomes: how many first round QB's have NOT won a Super Bowl?

DanTurksGhost

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« #7 : March 15, 2007, 01:58:29 PM »

For fun, here's the first round QB's from 1990-2004. I left off the past two drafts because it's too early to tell for Young, Leinart, Cutler, Smith, Rodgers and Campbell. If anyone is interested and has a minute or two, how about breaking the list down based on your opinion into three groups:

Above Average
Average
Below Average

It will be interesting to see how many  of these first round QB's are in the top group where first round picks should be. The list:

Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
Dave Brown
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
Jeff George
Andre Ware

Mohawkbucs

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« #8 : March 15, 2007, 02:35:37 PM »

its all luck and good scouting, as of late it seems to be getting better tho, Cutler seems like he will be good, same with Rivers....and Alex Smith is definetely improving

Eli Manning is probably one of the bigger busts in recent years, he isnt that good...not even close to his brother


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« #9 : March 15, 2007, 02:37:05 PM »

Eli Manning - above average (playoff QB)
Philip Rivers - above average (playoff QB)
Ben Roethlisberger - above average (Super Bowl QB)
J.P. Losman -  below average
Carson Palmer - above average (playoff QB)
Byron Leftwich - above average (playoff QB)
Kyle Boller - below average
Rex Grossman - average (Super Bowl QB)
David Carr - below average
Joey Harrington - bust
Patrick Ramsey - below average
Michael Vick - above average (playoff QB)
Chad Pennington - above average (playoff QB)
Tim Couch - bust
Donovan McNabb - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Akili Smith - bust
Daunte Culpepper - above average (playoff QB)
Cade McNown - bust
Peyton Manning - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Ryan Leaf - THE bust
Jim Druckenmiller - bust
Steve McNair - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Kerry Collins - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Heath Shuler - bust
Trent Dilfer - average (Super Bowl QB)
Drew Bledsoe - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Rick Mirer - bust
Dave Brown - bust
David Klingler - bust
Tommy Maddox - average (playoff QB)
Dan McGwire - bust
Todd Marinovich - bust
Jeff George - bust
Andre Ware - bust


In summation, there have been 8 QBs that have piloted their teams to a Super Bowl berth.

DanTurksGhost

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« #10 : March 15, 2007, 02:39:45 PM »

Thanks, Shalla. Looks like you have 13 out of 34 ranked "Above Average" or 38%.

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« #11 : March 15, 2007, 02:43:03 PM »

It's interesting that Billick didn't heed the Walsh advice on "Pro" Boller.

shall555

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« #12 : March 15, 2007, 02:47:28 PM »

Thanks, Shalla. Looks like you have 13 out of 34 ranked "Above Average" or 38%.

I figured any QB that could get his team into the playoffs deserves an above average rating. I gave Maddox an average, because he didn't play long enough. Was a bust early, then revived his career for a couple of years and got a playoff victory.

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« #13 : March 15, 2007, 02:54:57 PM »

I pretty much agree with your numbers for the most part, though I think playoffs is a low hurdle with the some of the recent wild cards we've seen.  I'd quibble with Maddox and Grossman though. I don't think either is average. I also don't think Eli's above average at this point.

What's interesting that 4 (almost a 3rd) of the above average guys are/were on different teams from the one that drafted them (Culpepper, Bledsoe, McNair, and Collins).

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« #14 : March 15, 2007, 03:01:20 PM »

What I saw of Russells workouts were simply amazing, that dude was firing shots one after another, hitting accurate 50 yards on his 75th and on throws in a row

That is almost unhuman like.

JaMarcus Russell will be the next big QB in the NFL. This guy is gonna be a superstar

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