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DanTurksGhost

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« #15 : March 15, 2007, 03:10:26 PM »

Physical skills are only one aspect. Time will tell how he adjusts to the mental aspects of the pro game. I like Russell a lot, but in college he got away with a lot of throws that he will not get away with in the NFL.

shall555

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« #16 : March 15, 2007, 03:16:52 PM »

I pretty much agree with your numbers for the most part, though I think playoffs is a low hurdle with the some of the recent wild cards we've seen. I'd quibble with Maddox and Grossman though. I don't think either is average. I also don't think Eli's above average at this point.

What's interesting that 4 (almost a 3rd) of the above average guys are/were on different teams from the one that drafted them (Culpepper, Bledsoe, McNair, and Collins).

I'm not a fan of Grossman's at all, but he did get his team to a Super Bowl, and it wasn't on the back of the defense, which was struggling when Brown and Harris went down. He has his moments, because when he's on, he can dominate. I think he's above average. His streakiness will never make him elite though.

Eli is above average, because the Giants were awful before they drafted him. Like Grossman, he has his moments. He did have his team at 6-2 before all the injuries destroyed their season. I'm not a fan of his either, but I think he is above average. Just not elite.

bklynbucs11

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« #17 : March 15, 2007, 03:22:03 PM »

Eli Manning - above average (playoff QB)
Philip Rivers - above average (playoff QB)
Ben Roethlisberger - above average (Super Bowl QB)
J.P. Losman -  below average
Carson Palmer - above average (playoff QB)
Byron Leftwich - above average (playoff QB)
Kyle Boller - below average
Rex Grossman - average (Super Bowl QB)
David Carr - below average
Joey Harrington - bust
Patrick Ramsey - below average
Michael Vick - above average (playoff QB)
Chad Pennington - above average (playoff QB)
Tim Couch - bust
Donovan McNabb - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Akili Smith - bust
Daunte Culpepper - above average (playoff QB)
Cade McNown - bust
Peyton Manning - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Ryan Leaf - THE bust
Jim Druckenmiller - bust
Steve McNair - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Kerry Collins - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Heath Shuler - bust
Trent Dilfer - average (Super Bowl QB)
Drew Bledsoe - above average (Super Bowl QB)
Rick Mirer - bust
Dave Brown - bust
David Klingler - bust
Tommy Maddox - average (playoff QB)
Dan McGwire - bust
Todd Marinovich - bust
Jeff George - bust
Andre Ware - bust


In summation, there have been 8 QBs that have piloted their teams to a Super Bowl berth.

I think even this list is generous. Byron Leftwich has underperformed his backup in terms of winning percentage. Eli Manning turned a team with superbowl talent into a team barely qualifying for the playoffs. Phillip Rivers - I give this guy Average AT BEST. Phillip Rivers has Scott Mitchell syndrome - when you have LT (or in that case, Barry) in the backfield - you will look good throwing the football. And Rex Grossman - I'll tell you this. Trent Dilfer was a better QB for Baltimore than Grossman is. Kerry Collins is average at best. He had 3 seasons with the Giants where he was ok (he threw 60 TD's - but also 43 ints with about a 59% completion percentage). Keep in mind - that was by far his best years. Otherwise - he's a career 73 QB rating with 174 TDs and 172 ints. 


That narrows your list to 8 of 34.

acacius

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« #18 : March 15, 2007, 03:46:42 PM »

For fun, here's the first round QB's from 1990-2004. I left off the past two drafts because it's too early to tell for Young, Leinart, Cutler, Smith, Rodgers and Campbell. If anyone is interested and has a minute or two, how about breaking the list down based on your opinion into three groups:

Above Average
Average
Below Average

My ratings are somewhat different in places.

Eli Manning - Average
Philip Rivers - Above Average
Ben Roethlisberger - Above Average
J.P. Losman - Average, possibly heading to Above Average (Seriously, he looked like an actual qb last year)
Carson Palmer - Above Average
Byron Leftwich - Average
Kyle Boller - Below Average
Rex Grossman - Below Average
David Carr - Average
Joey Harrington - Below Average
Patrick Ramsey - Below Average
Michael Vick - Average
Chad Pennington - Above Average
Tim Couch - Below Average
Donovan McNabb - Above Average
Akili Smith - Below Average
Daunte Culpepper - Above Average
Cade McNown - Below Average
Peyton Manning - Above Average
Ryan Leaf - Below Average
Jim Druckenmiller - Below Average
Steve McNair - Above Average
Kerry Collins - Average
Heath Shuler - Below Average
Trent Dilfer - Average
Drew Bledsoe - Above Average
Rick Mirer - Below Average
Dave Brown - Below Average
David Klingler - Below Average
Tommy Maddox - Below Average
Dan McGwire - Below Average
Todd Marinovich - Below Average
Jeff George - Average
Andre Ware - Below Average

Honestly though, I think that only tells part of the story.  While this clearly demonstrates the risks inherent in drafting a quarterback in the first round, I suspect a comparison of the franchise quarterbacks found after round 1 and the total number of quarterbacks taken after round 1 would show that it is significantly more difficult to find a franchise quarterback later in the draft.  Clearly it's not impossible, but there being roughly as many 1st round superbowl quarterbacks as superbowl quarterbacks found in all other rounds combined is suggestive.  It IS a risk, but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't a worthwhile one.

Pick6

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« #19 : March 15, 2007, 03:51:25 PM »

I just picked this up off RW. I'd never heard this quote from Billick before:

There is a reason why Bill Walsh never took a first-round quarterback. If you're going to crapshoot, don't do it in the first round…No matter how good an evaluator you are, there's always a Ryan Leaf out there."

- Brian Billick



that strategy has really paid off for billick, hasn't it, with his string of superstar QBs and potent offenses....mcnair is the best QB of his head coaching career, and i think he was a 1st rounder way back when....

whobdis

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« #20 : March 15, 2007, 03:51:38 PM »

I think the relative success of Leinhart and Young puts a little more pressure on
teams like Det and Cleveland to take a qb. Both of these franchises have been floundering
around with different qb's for awhile. I have a number of friends in both areas and frankly
they are begging for something to get excited about.  I'll be shocked if they both pass
on QB's..whether it's the 'smart' decision or not.

Bucs Capacitor

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« #21 : March 15, 2007, 03:52:56 PM »

Yeah, I think what we can all grab from this is the fact that the standpoint of NEVER drafting a QB first round is ludicrous, despite the bust chances.  To me this just further proves it actually DOES have a lot to do with how well you scout.

Booker Reese

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« #22 : March 15, 2007, 04:00:15 PM »

I just picked this up off RW. I'd never heard this quote from Billick before:

There is a reason why Bill Walsh never took a first-round quarterback. If you're going to crapshoot, don't do it in the first round…No matter how good an evaluator you are, there's always a Ryan Leaf out there."

- Brian Billick



that strategy has really paid off for billick, hasn't it, with his string of superstar QBs and potent offenses....mcnair is the best QB of his head coaching career, and i think he was a 1st rounder way back when....

The problem is, he hasn't followed this strategy. The Ravens traded 2 #1s to grab Kyle Boller in the first round.

Booker Reese

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« #23 : March 15, 2007, 04:06:13 PM »

Acacius, I think the point is this - drafting a QB in round 1 is a high risk proposition, where finding a bust more likely than finding a star. However, finding that elusive star does more to keep you in play for the Superbowl than anything.

It's been shown that you don't necessarily need a star to win the Super Bowl - but teams with guys like Manning, McNabb, Brady, etc. are perennially in the running.

It's also easy to say that it's all about good scouting - but it's also true that QB is probably the hardest to scout. I think I remember reading that the Pats were pretty much ambivalent about Rattay and Brady, and Bill Walsh reportedly favored Steve Dill to Joe Montana.

Booker Reese

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« #24 : March 15, 2007, 04:10:00 PM »

I think QB is also the one where you have to discount the workout the most - 2 of the most impressive workouts in recent years where Akili Smith and Kyle Boller. In fact, the Smith workout sounds eerily similar to Russell's  - the "tireless arm," still throwing strong after a ridiculous number of throws, etc.

Boller famously threw the ball through the uprights on his knees from the 50 yard line. I haven't seen that play in Billick's offense yet though

Bucluva101

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« #25 : March 15, 2007, 04:12:07 PM »

anyone heard of.......Vince Young?


Booker Reese

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« #26 : March 15, 2007, 04:13:23 PM »

And?

acacius

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« #27 : March 15, 2007, 04:14:33 PM »

Acacius, I think the point is this - drafting a QB in round 1 is a high risk proposition, where finding a bust more likely than finding a star. However, finding that elusive star does more to keep you in play for the Superbowl than anything.

I don't disagree with that.  I'm just saying that while you may be more likely to find a bust than a star drafting a quarterback in round 1, you're even worse off trying to find one if you wait.

RedAlert

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« #28 : March 15, 2007, 04:19:29 PM »

...and Bill Walsh reportedly favored Steve Dill to Joe Montana.

True story. (spelled Dils, btw) But I think Walsh may have been a little biased towards Dils because he was attending Stanford and Walsh had been his HC there before taking the 9ers job..

Pick6

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« #29 : March 15, 2007, 05:08:20 PM »

I just picked this up off RW. I'd never heard this quote from Billick before:

There is a reason why Bill Walsh never took a first-round quarterback. If you're going to crapshoot, don't do it in the first round…No matter how good an evaluator you are, there's always a Ryan Leaf out there."

- Brian Billick



that strategy has really paid off for billick, hasn't it, with his string of superstar QBs and potent offenses....mcnair is the best QB of his head coaching career, and i think he was a 1st rounder way back when....

The problem is, he hasn't followed this strategy. The Ravens traded 2 #1s to grab Kyle Boller in the first round.

kind of reinforces my point, which is that it's more about your astuteness as a talent evaluator than what round a player is projected to go.  billick has picked turds later in the draft, he's picked turds in FA, and he's picked a turd in the 1st round as well....maybe his advice should be "never pick a QB if your name is Brian Billick"
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