Boise State #1?

[bradentonian]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5673225

Boise State projected as BCS No. 1


ESPN college football researcher Brad Edwards talks about his BCS projections. Edwards says Boise State is likely to be No. 1 in the first BCS rankings but they have no shot of staying there all season.

Six weeks into the college football season and one week before the first Bowl Championship Series standings are released, there are 13 unbeaten teams in all three polls.

So who'd be the BCS' No. 1 if the standings came out today? Would it be consensus No. 1 Ohio State, the top team in The Associated Press, USA Today and Harris polls? Or maybe fellow unbeaten Oregon, ranked No. 2 and earning first-place votes in all three polls?

According to the projection of ESPN's Brad Edwards, it's consensus No. 3 Boise State.

According to the projections, the No. 1 Buckeyes would place fifth in the BCS standings, percentage points behind Oklahoma.


Team   Rating
1. Boise State   .913
2. Oregon   .863
3. TCU   .854
4. Oklahoma   .8425
5. Ohio State   .8421
6. LSU   .782
7. Nebraska   .777
8. Auburn   .744
9. Michigan State   .642
10. Alabama   .634


Edwards projects the unbeaten Broncos, the highest-ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conference, as the top team in the standings by a comfortable margin, followed by Oregon. The top two teams in the final regular-season BCS standings play in the BCS National Championship Game.

Fellow BCS buster TCU places third in Edwards' projections, followed by Oklahoma at .8425 and Ohio State at .8421.

Edwards explained that although the Buckeyes are No. 1 in the two polls the BCS uses -- the Harris and the USA Today coaches' poll -- they're deemed 10th-best by the BCS computer rankings, due in part to the Buckeyes' strength of schedule to date compared to the other unbeaten teams. The computers do not take margin of victory into consideration.

Boise State rated higher because the Broncos are third in the Harris and USA Today polls and second in the BCS computer ranking, Edwards said. But he also noted Boise State has already played the toughest part of its schedule, while Ohio State and the other top 10 teams from automatic qualifying conferences face tougher competition in the weeks ahead.

"Though this is exactly what the BCS standings would look like if they came out today, this is not an indication of what they will look like several weeks from now if all these teams keep winning," Edwards said.

The No. 5 projection might annoy Buckeye fans looking to celebrate Ohio State's first AP No. 1 ranking since the final regular-season poll of 2007. But Ohio State coach Jim Tressel pointed out Sunday that the only constant in the polls is that they're always changing.

"You take a look at the top 10 week to week and the precarious nature of any ranking is obvious -- just review the change in the makeup of the top 10 between the beginning of the season until now," Tressel said.

Of the top 10 teams in the preseason AP rankings, only six remain. Florida, No. 4 to start the year, is now No. 22, while Iowa has fallen from No. 9 to No. 15. Texas and Virginia Tech are unranked.

Oregon was No. 11 in the preseason poll.

Undefeateds LSU, Nebraska, Auburn and Michigan State and once-beaten Alabama round out the top 10 of Edwards' BCS projections.

The first official BCS standings of the season will be released on Sunday on the "BCS Countdown Show" at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The formula that produces the BCS standings is one-third USA Today poll, one-third Harris Interactive poll and one-third computer rankings.

[The White Tiger]

I don't have a problem with analysts looking at data and extrapolating that obscure a teams that dominate in the powerful WAC, or Mountain West, should be more of a consideration to the BCS ranking system. I think there is a lot of bias built into the BCS system - similar to the way Duke gets favorable bracket rankings once the tournament begins. The reality is, the BCS really only plays into reinforcing what the average viewer believes - that the major conferences are simply better than the ones they don't watch...hence you have Utah's that beat the Alabama's of the world and everyone is stunned.

..but the intriguing thing is, despite Duke getting favorable ranking in their media influenced tournament selection committees - Duke still consistently beats the teams they're supposed to, as well as the teams from other brackets.

For me, the outliers like Utah in 2008 (or Boise State this season) have made the case that they deserve NC consideration - but how do you relegate South Carolina to a sub-Top 10 position when they beat the number one team in the nation?

How do you justify ranking a national pole and then dropping the number 2 team in the nation after another win (during an undefeated season)?

The crowd knows what they want, and the media keeps giving it to them: bias and controversy.

By the way - the new tournament series will still leave legitimate teams out of post season play, bias will still factor into ranking the various Division I schools (just like the tournament of 64)/ The media loves the drama arising from an unfair ranking system that they invented...

...and THE Ohio State University is the #1 team in the nation in all the polls that matter... B)

[Brahmal]

meh, tOSU will lose to someone anyway.

[BucsGuru]

SOS, Conference affiliation, etc, should be considered, but in the end, there is NO way to argue when teams go undefeated like Boise St. has.  IF they win out this season, they will have gone two straight years without losing.  If Vanderbilt does this, they are crowned National Champions two years in a row.  

It's not right, but it is what it is....politics.  

I'm a Boise State fan for the simple reason that they deserve a chance to prove themselves.  HOWEVER, had they really wanted the chance, they would have pushed harder this summer to join a larger conference like Utah did in joining the Pac-10.  Utah will ultimately be the winner since they now have a major conference title recognition...Boise State does not.

[The White Tiger]

Boise - has placed themselves in this "nether-world" right now - none of the big schools want to play them, as they would have nothing to gain, and everything to lose - and Boise doesn't want to move onto a tougher conference, as they would have more to lose in that regard. I'm thinking this won't be an issue long - Boise will soon lose their coach to a major program's dollars. That is why the Cinderella's come a knockin'...but seldom stay.

It is why the major programs have the influence they do, and rightly so - they show up consistently, year after year - so why should they be forced to yield so easily to a Cinderella program? Media types can wander off the reservation so long as they dutifully come back to reality towards the end of the season. As it wears-on the media has more to lose by publicizing the lesser-known programs - both in status and advertising dollars. It's up to the program to provide staying power to gain recognition, that means continuing to commit resources to their program, coach, recruiting, etc.

No one should be able to argue that the 6 SEC teams and 4 Big Ten teams in the Top 25 - are there because of bias. These teams keep showing the commitment, and results - and as such they keep getting the recognition. It is no coincidence then that these conferences have several teams within striking distance of the Top 10, with and always have at least one in the Top 5, within striking distnace of #1 or #2 by the end of the season...think of it as a protracted tournament selection process - where the Bowl teams are being selected or eliminated publicly, all season long. As the season winds down, the better conferences defeat their lesser conference foes and the elite teams of lesser conferences fall further behind - unless they play the big boys or align with a conference who will allow them to play the big boys, the "quality wins" portion of computer system pulls top conferences ahead, while weeding out the Cinderella/Boise State-like teams.

I mean Boise State and the next Boise State-like team...

That's why a cold school, like THE Ohio State University Buckeye's are ranked near the top every season - they consistently, and persistantly, show.

Just time to place and win...

[BucsGuru]

I don't agree Tiger; they have the influence because they operate within a biased system.  Playoffs would not keep this from happening though.

[oregonbucfan]

BucsGuru wrote:

SOS, Conference affiliation, etc, should be considered, but in the end, there is NO way to argue when teams go undefeated like Boise St. has.  IF they win out this season, they will have gone two straight years without losing.  If Vanderbilt does this, they are crowned National Champions two years in a row.  

It's not right, but it is what it is....politics.  

I'm a Boise State fan for the simple reason that they deserve a chance to prove themselves.  HOWEVER, had they really wanted the chance, they would have pushed harder this summer to join a larger conference like Utah did in joining the Pac-10.  Utah will ultimately be the winner since they now have a major conference title recognition...Boise State does not.

Nobody wanted Boise... they had no choice. WCC is the best they can do. The school sucks

[The White Tiger]

BG - the point is that the famous NCAA basketball "Tournament of 64" - is BIASED. Look at the selection process, how else can you explain Duke always ending up with a "cake" bracket? Notice the limitation of the mid-majors, the "Cinderella" teams are even fewer...

The folks selling products want really L-A-R-G-E target audiences - once in a while the average outcome is upset by a really talented team running a perfect system - but the mean group (Major conferences like; Big Ten, SEC, PAC-10, Big-12, ACC...) are being protected.

Don't be confused though - the media isn't protecting their bias, they're protecting ours- by selecting the above mentioned conferences it re-inforces our (the fan's) sense of justice.

Regardless - I think it usually works out just about right. Otherwise it would be chaos - kinda like what Einstien said about the concept of time being "real", "...otherwise everything would happen at once" (or something similar, that's what I got out of what he said). I think the paraphrase as applied to NCAA football would be something like - "otherwise we might be forced to endure Utah vs Alabama on January 8th...." (and I didn't even watch that, until I saw Alabama was losing....)!

Horrors!

[John Galt?]

The White Tiger wrote:

Boise will soon lose their coach to a major program's dollars. That is why the Cinderella's come a knockin'...but seldom stay.

This is an inevitability, a predictable certainty. I'm still not sure why Tennessee didn't make a play for him after Kiffin bolted. UT has more $$$$$ than BSU can even dream of. Heck, there are assistants in the SEC making more than Petterson makes. $1.6 million/year???

How long before a ND or a Washington, or Penn State (pending JoPa's inevitable retirement) make CP an offer "he can't refuse"?

he may be getting snubbed in the rankings by coaches making 5-8 times what he is making (Tressell, Meyer, Saban, Stoopes, Brown, etc.) but how long before he says, "hell, why am I trying to beat them when I can join them???"

[The White Tiger]

John Galt? wrote:

The White Tiger wrote:

Boise will soon lose their coach to a major program's dollars. That is why the Cinderella's come a knockin'...but seldom stay.

This is an inevitability, a predictable certainty. I'm still not sure why Tennessee didn't make a play for him after Kiffin bolted. UT has more $$$$$ than BSU can even dream of. Heck, there are assistants in the SEC making more than Petterson makes. $1.6 million/year???

How long before a ND or a Washington, or Penn State (pending JoPa's inevitable retirement) make CP an offer "he can't refuse"?

he may be getting snubbed in the rankings by coaches making 5-8 times what he is making (Tressell, Meyer, Saban, Stoopes, Brown, etc.) but how long before he says, "hell, why am I trying to beat them when I can join them???"

Agreed..David always enjoys taking shots at the Giant...but talent, like water, eventually seeks it's own level.

Big money separates the worlds of Utah and Florida/Youngstown State and OSU - the small schools find the talent and allow for a proving ground of ideas, without the pressure of the major programs. Young, unknown, but talented coaches get to prove themselves in the little things, if they do, they get opportunities with bigger things (...Tressell, Meyer, Saban, Stoops? Hecks, how 'bout, Spurrier, Bowden, Holtz, Bryant...before them). Small schools don't pay coaches because they're only renting the talent - and for a breif moment the Cinderella's get a little recognition under the Kleig lights with very little investment - everybody wins! We fans get the thrill of our watching the favorite teams of our childhood right the wrongs done to us in a bygone era...the system keeps generating new fans and new angles.

...and it's all played out before us every Saturday!

What a system...!

[BucsGuru]

Let's hope he stays right where he is because I am a big Boise State fan simply because of the lousy system!  I hope some how, some way, they get into the big game and win it all this year....bet there would be a playoff system after that!

Looks like THE Ohio State are really a #1 team huh?!  Wisconsin beating the mess out of them and it's not even the second half.

Hello #1 Oregon.....

[The White Tiger]

BucsGuru wrote:

Let's hope he stays right where he is because I am a big Boise State fan simply because of the lousy system!  I hope some how, some way, they get into the big game and win it all this year....bet there would be a playoff system after that!

Looks like THE Ohio State are really a #1 team huh?!  Wisconsin beating the mess out of them and it's not even the second half.

Hello #1 Oregon.....

If there is an undefeated team at the end of the season, do they deserve to be the real #1, or does it mean that we reward those teams that don't want to get tested? That's the problem with Cinderella's...they only have to beat one good team every other season, with a steady diet of nobodies for the balance of each season...

Wisconsin winning the way they won - dominating, swarming defense, unstoppable running game - Iowa, and Michigan State are getting stronger - THE Ohio State University will have to step up it's game or it will be left behind....while I hated the loss - I LOVE the competition (afterall, running through the schedule, culminating in a beat down of arch-rival _ichigan, just isn't helping us win championships...the only way that will happen is with improved competition within the Big Ten).

I hope Boise State enjoys their 15 minutes...

[Legend]

Well dude was wrong Boise St is #3. Oregon #1 and Oklahoma #2

[The White Tiger]

BucsGuru wrote:

I don't agree Tiger; they have the influence because they operate within a biased system.  Playoffs would not keep this from happening though.

I think that if La Tech can ammass 394 yards against Boise State...perhaps they aren't who you think they are...

...now the argument is this: is the inability to defend against poor teams due to something in the WAC, or is it specific to Boise State?

Either way - allowing an opponent like the (3-5) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to roll up 394 yards - indicates problems Boise St hasn't yet encountrered...maybe part of the problem with scheduling tougher teams is on the part of Boise State...?

[BucsGuru]

Boise State deserves the chance to play for the National Championship this year because:

1. They have gone 60-4 since the 2006-2007 season, and the best record in Division I over that period.

2. They currently hold the nations longest winning streak.

3. Since 2006/2007, they have defeated quality teams outside their division, including Oregon State (x2), Oregon (x2), Washington, Oklahoma, Utah, Virgina Tech, and an Undefeated TCU squad.  

4. Virginia Tech looks like it will end up winning the ACC Title this year.  

LIKE I SAID, THEY DESERVE THE CHANCE, BUT WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING MATCHED UP WITH THE ACC WINNER, ESPECIALLY IF VA TECH WINS AGAIN.  THIS IS WHY THE BCS DOESN'T WORK.