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Hate

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#30 : February 05, 2011, 01:53:49 PM

When you're the QB, you're responsible for knowing your job, and everyone else's. Dude had far more on his shoulders than Will, Blount, Suh or any of the others.... and he handled it admirably. Add to that when you're a QB, you already have a leg up on the competition. In other words, it is what it is. Someone would've had to put up monster #s to beat him out.

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 I thought Lovie said he wanted quickness & speed, even at the QB position?

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#31 : February 05, 2011, 02:11:36 PM

Someone would've had to put up monster #s to beat him out.

Like coming in second to some guy named Randy Moss for most TD's by a rookie wideout?  ;D


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#32 : February 05, 2011, 02:14:52 PM

Here's where the flaws are in your assessment, Biggs. Since you want to delve into the historical aspect of the equation. Ever hear of Greg Cook? He was the rookie QB of the Bengals in 1969. He led the league in passing. QB rating as it exists now didn't exist then. Cook took an expansion team and made it legitimately better, beating the Chiefs and Raiders among others. Then he hurt his arm and was virtually done.
I bring him up because he was legitimately a star rookie QB, not the sham Bradford is. Cook averaged 9.4 yards per attempt.
Want to know why Bradford threw for 3,500 yards? Not out of excellence. It's because of attempts. He threw 590 times. That's almost 37 times a game, a ridiculous number of throws. He was third in pass attempts in the NFL, but only ninth in passes completed. And the Rams, while improved, were still right at the bottom of the league in yards per play, ranking 31st.
18 touchdown passes? A quirk. Since few rookie QBs play all 16 games, it would be expected that one who did play all 16 would throw more touchdown passes, particularly against such weak competition. And when you compare Bradford against the 2007 Rams that won only three games, you see little difference.
Conclusion: The Rams of 2007 and 2008 were bad teams having normal years. The 2009 Rams were a bad team having a bad year, hence their 175 points scored. 2010 marked a bit of a correction, combined with high picks and clear defensive improvement (using the Simple Rating System, the team was a minus-6.7. Defensively they were almost average at minus-.4, but offensively they were still awful at minus-6.3). Know the history, but also know how to interpret it. Throwing 590 short passes doesn't make you a star.

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mattyd1521

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#33 : February 05, 2011, 02:16:45 PM

I was not surprised Bradford won the award he deserved it. He performed well for a rookie at the QB position. That is the position that gets the most credit and the most heat.

 Of course I wanted Mike Williams who had a tremendous season. Then again who is going to remember who won this award in a few years?

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#34 : February 05, 2011, 02:19:07 PM

Someone would've had to put up monster #s to beat him out.

Like coming in second to some guy named Randy Moss for most TD's by a rookie wideout?  ;D

Eggxactly!!

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 I thought Lovie said he wanted quickness & speed, even at the QB position?

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#35 : February 05, 2011, 02:22:05 PM

Of course he did - for all the reasons and rationale offered by Biggs, Hate and others including mattyd

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

jerseybucsfan

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#36 : February 05, 2011, 02:24:38 PM

Here's another thing. No one has 1-15 talent on a year-by-year basis. Most teams that go 1-15 are really 3-13 teams having a bad year. Or young teams in transition. Bradford was the beneficiary of many others improving, maturing. He may have more heat on him, but the evidence suggests he road their coattails, not the reverse.

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jerseybucsfan

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#37 : February 05, 2011, 02:36:42 PM

And while we're talking about comparison, Matthew Stafford averaged 226 yards passing per game in 2009. That's more than Bradford did this year. Stafford was hurt and didn't play in all 16 games, but his TD passes per game average was also superior to Bradford (13 in 10 games).
Freeman and Sanchez had superior yards per pass attempt.
Matt Ryan's numbers in 2008 were dramatically better all across the board over Bradford 2010 with the quirk of TD passes (16) because once they got in the red zone they ran. Joe Flacco was in the same boat.
Bradford IMHO isn't even the rookie QB with the most promise. Tebow or Colt McCoy may have brighter futures.
But chirp on with more testaments to conservativism.

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jerseybucsfan

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#38 : February 05, 2011, 02:37:59 PM

Ryan had 3,440 yards passing on 156 FEWER attempts than Bradford in 2008 BTW. That's about a quarter of a season's worth of fewer attempts.

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#39 : February 05, 2011, 02:38:57 PM

Here's where the flaws are in your assessment, Biggs. Since you want to delve into the historical aspect of the equation. Ever hear of Greg Cook? He was the rookie QB of the Bengals in 1969. He led the league in passing. QB rating as it exists now didn't exist then. Cook took an expansion team and made it legitimately better, beating the Chiefs and Raiders among others. Then he hurt his arm and was virtually done.
I bring him up because he was legitimately a star rookie QB, not the sham Bradford is. Cook averaged 9.4 yards per attempt.

What does any of this have to do with Bradford throwing for over 3500 yards and 18 TD's in his rookie year, while leading his team to more wins while than their last 3 seasons combined?  Answer:  nothing.

The fact that you have to go back over 40 years for this example should clue you in to how rare it is for a rookie QB to do what Bradford did.



Want to know why Bradford threw for 3,500 yards? Not out of excellence. It's because of attempts. He threw 590 times. That's almost 37 times a game, a ridiculous number of throws. He was third in pass attempts in the NFL, but only ninth in passes completed. And the Rams, while improved, were still right at the bottom of the league in yards per play, ranking 31st.
18 touchdown passes? A quirk. Since few rookie QBs play all 16 games, it would be expected that one who did play all 16 would throw more touchdown passes, particularly against such weak competition. And when you compare Bradford against the 2007 Rams that won only three games, you see little difference.
Conclusion: The Rams of 2007 and 2008 were bad teams having normal years. The 2009 Rams were a bad team having a bad year, hence their 175 points scored. 2010 marked a bit of a correction, combined with high picks and clear defensive improvement (using the Simple Rating System, the team was a minus-6.7. Defensively they were almost average at minus-.4, but offensively they were still awful at minus-6.3). Know the history, but also know how to interpret it. Throwing 590 short passes doesn't make you a star.

Seriously, do you grasp the concept of "rookie QB"?

Would Bradford had to have thrown for 4500+ yards and 30+ TD's as a rookie (and basically be the best rookie QB ever) to not be a "sham"?



Here's another thing. No one has 1-15 talent on a year-by-year basis. Most teams that go 1-15 are really 3-13 teams having a bad year. Or young teams in transition. Bradford was the beneficiary of many others improving, maturing. He may have more heat on him, but the evidence suggests he road their coattails, not the reverse.

So it was a complete coincidence the Rams were 6-42 the previous three seasons with Bulger as their QB and 7-9 with Bradford?  Dude, give it up and give the rookie QB some credit for playing the toughest position in sports the way he did as the #1 overall pick and the pressure that comes with it.


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#40 : February 05, 2011, 02:40:11 PM

LOL - you're killing me with the reaching.  The kid joined a terrible team - they won frequently.  He stayed healthy - played well and led.  He is the qb - who likely gets too much credit for the change - but that is the way it goes.  He won - and rightly so.  You need to let this one go JBF

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

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#41 : February 05, 2011, 02:52:29 PM

At least JBF isn't pulling stuff out of his ass, not saying his opponents are, just his argument is at least reasonable and not outlandish.  I too thought quantitative rather than qualitative when I saw 590 attempts, that's a crap load for rookie QB's, like 200+ more than normal, would that be an agreeable figure? How do we know other rookie QB's wouldn't be able to put up similar numbers if they weren't let loose? It would be nice to see the numbers for all rookie QB's in the last 10 years if their stats were expanded to match 590 attempts.


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#42 : February 05, 2011, 02:58:43 PM

another way to look at the attempts is the kid was asked to carry more of the burden than he should have been - and looking at the Rams record the prior several seasons - well that seems reasonable as well captain...

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

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#43 : February 05, 2011, 03:00:23 PM

At least JBF isn't pulling stuff out of his ass, not saying his opponents are, just his argument is at least reasonable and not outlandish.  I too thought quantitative rather than qualitative when I saw 590 attempts, that's a crap load for rookie QB's, like 200+ more than normal, would that be an agreeable figure? How do we know other rookie QB's wouldn't be able to put up similar numbers if they weren't let loose? It would be nice to see the numbers for all rookie QB's in the last 10 years if their stats were expanded to match 590 attempts.

The fact that a rookie QB started from week 1 and played in every game isn't a knock on him.  That speaks even better for him, because there haven't been many QB's handed their franchise in week one that were able to (1) perform well and (2) stay healthy.

This is like discounting Mike Williams' numbers because he was the team's #1 option and thrown at over 120 times.  It's a credit to him, not a knock.


jerseybucsfan

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#44 : February 05, 2011, 03:49:43 PM

That's fair, Biggs. But what he did with it must be kept in context. Is he better than a 1-15 quarterback? Obviously. But the data suggests the Rams underachieved at going 1-15. Historically teams don't go 1-15 again. Even the 0-14 Bucs improved by two games. They had to improve simply by random chance. Durability is a plus. But how much of the six-game improvement can be credited to him? The statistical data suggests more of the improvement is a result of improved defense, not offense. And point differential suggests they are a 6.8-win team so not as improved as even that.
So was he an upgrade on the injury-plauged fading Bulger or Boller? Sure. But you're comparing him to the worst QBs around. This is an award of excellence.
The approach taken with Bradford because of his injury history was to get rid of the ball quickly and be accurate. He did this well. But that doesn't make him anything resembling an elite quarterback. The Rams aren't even close to being an average offense (and while the lack of wideout talent can be attributed to this, it would be erroneous to say he didn't receive any added help this year as tight end and offensive tackle upgrades helped the team too).
The Rams furthermore had an even weaker SOS than the Bucs hence his QB rating would be inflated. So his 25th place in the QB rankings is probably inflated.
Put in the proper context, he is better than the flop QBs of recent years like JeMarcus Russell, but not as good as Flacco or Ryan. His comparison to Freeman, Sanchez and Stafford can be debated, which makes him good, but certainly not the overwhelming shoo-in for this award.

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