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JDouble

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#15 : February 20, 2011, 02:56:46 PM

I agree, JDouble. Quinn will go in the top 19. But Kerrigan, Houston, Smith, Watt and Jordan you can throw in a bag. IMHO Smith will be the least popular of that bunch meaning that Kerrigan, Houston, Watt and Jordan go quicker.

If Aldon Smith blows up the combine like he is expected to his stock will rise and he could be at the top of that list of guys.

Cameron Jordan got a boost of popularity from the Senior Bowl but it's fading. He'll need to have a great combine as well or he could easily go back to being a mid to late 1st rounder instead of a top 10. Allen Bailey is probably already ahead on the boards of 3-4 teams looking for a DE. Watt is right there in the mix too. Many sites have Watt going before Jordan or Bailey.

Quinn hasn't played in a year so his combine is important too. Everyone assumes that a team in the top 15 will take the risk on him even though he hasn't played a single down of football in almost 2 years. I'm not so sure he's a lock for the top 10 or even top 15.

Houston could go anywhere. I see him all over the board and I think scouts have the least consensus on him. I keep hearing that he lacks intelligence and that is a big concern, but that could also just be pre-draft smoke from teams that want him to drop.

Even the consensus #1 DE Bowers just recently came out with news of his knee surgery and it might cause him to miss the combine. That could cause him to drop a bit as well. Not to us, but if he drops back to 8 or 10 instead of 1 or 2 then that effects all the other 1st round DEs as well.


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#16 : February 20, 2011, 03:02:14 PM

I agree, JDouble. Quinn will go in the top 19. But Kerrigan, Houston, Smith, Watt and Jordan you can throw in a bag. IMHO Smith will be the least popular of that bunch meaning that Kerrigan, Houston, Watt and Jordan go quicker.

If Aldon Smith blows up the combine like he is expected to his stock will rise and he could be at the top of that list of guys.

Cameron Jordan got a boost of popularity from the Senior Bowl but it's fading. He'll need to have a great combine as well or he could easily go back to being a mid to late 1st rounder instead of a top 10. Allen Bailey is probably already ahead on the boards of 3-4 teams looking for a DE. Watt is right there in the mix too. Many sites have Watt going before Jordan or Bailey.

Quinn hasn't played in a year so his combine is important too. Everyone assumes that a team in the top 15 will take the risk on him even though he hasn't played a single down of football in almost 2 years. I'm not so sure he's a lock for the top 10 or even top 15.

Houston could go anywhere. I see him all over the board and I think scouts have the least consensus on him. I keep hearing that he lacks intelligence and that is a big concern, but that could also just be pre-draft smoke from teams that want him to drop.

Even the consensus #1 DE Bowers just recently came out with news of his knee surgery and it might cause him to miss the combine. That could cause him to drop a bit as well. Not to us, but if he drops back to 8 or 10 instead of 1 or 2 then that effects all the other 1st round DEs as well.



Agree, Dom is going to have an important choice to make. Several of these guys will be available at #20.  Even better if Scam Newton goes between 1-19, pushes a DE down the board even further.

JDouble

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#17 : February 20, 2011, 03:12:05 PM

I just look at it like even though the draft is rich in top tier DEs, there aren't a lot of 4-3 REs in the 1st round. Bowers, but he isn't an option. Quinn is but most likely gone by 20. Kerrigan could be, but is more likely a LE. Watt is a LE. Jordan is a LE. So that leaves Houston and Smith. Both seem like they higher potential but less certainty. While Kerrigan, Watt, and Jordan are LEs...they are all but guaranteed to be solid draft picks that improve our D-line. Houston and Smith fit our bigger need at RE but have a higher boom/bust feeling to them. It will be very interesting to see which way we go.

Personally I think our safest bet would be to go with the safer pick in the first (Kerrigan, Watt, or Jordan) and then get a guy like Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson in FA. Maybe even move up in the 2nd and grab Jabaal Sheard to play RE if we can't land Edwards or Johnson.


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#18 : February 20, 2011, 09:42:19 PM

   And if we indeed get a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for Antonio Bryant, I'd think we would be more willing to trade one of our draft choices in a package to move up in the draft.

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#19 : February 21, 2011, 08:48:16 AM

don't think we have a snowballs chance in hell of getting him but he is quite possibly my favorite DE in this draft.


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#20 : February 21, 2011, 12:01:15 PM

There are 8 or 9 DE that are going to get drafted in the 1st round. Jordan may not make it down to us at 20 but i'm very happy with Watt or Kerrigan. I'm been singing their praise all off season. We should get a good DE, which in the long run is all I want.

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#21 : February 21, 2011, 02:37:08 PM

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-40-11-Cameron-Jordan-DL-Cal?urn=nfl-324299

Sounds like a perfect all purpose DE to me.  The Bucs can go after a 1 hand down, twitch end in round 3.  The BUcs would have a stout line with Jordan.

McCoy, Price, Miller, Jordan, Crowder, and...?  I would be content with that.


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#22 : February 21, 2011, 11:41:05 PM

thats true, but anytime "i" can get a top-flight potential guy for peanuts i am for it.  is it possible that he doesnt have the skillset to play OLB but can still play DE?  i think i heard rex ryan say on HardKnocks that he really likes gholston as a player but it just isnt clicking? or something to that effect.  i do agree that he should have progessed somewhat even playing out of position.  and maybe its just the lingering memory of him getting lucky against jake long?  i just hold out hope for the guy until he proves to be a bust as a 4-3 DE, the position that propelled him to the top of the draft.  i wouldnt give anything serious, and i would have to renegotiate that contract, but we have a hole at RDE and until that is fixed, im all for trying everything.

This guy is completely miscast as a 3-4 DE - and Gholston didn't just get lucky against Jake Long. Put Vernon Gholston in a 4-3 with Gerald McCoy, Brian Price and Kyle Moore - and I wouldn't want to be ANY offensive line having to face that!

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nybuccguy

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#23 : February 22, 2011, 12:01:41 AM


 Something no one has mentioned here......is it possible we will have to trade up for our guy simply because it is such a glaring need?  My point is that any team who covets a DE will have to trade up infront of us to get them, and Im sure many teams will try. Everyone knows we are drafting that position and it is impossible to hide it. Perhaps we trade up a few spots to gaurantee our guy and beat other teams to the punch who might also be moving up to land qaulity DEs that are dropping.


: February 22, 2011, 12:03:28 AM nybuccguy

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#24 : February 22, 2011, 12:25:06 AM

That's fine nybuccguy - but who's our guy?

The only reason we have a glaring need - is because we need a specific type of DE - we need a pass-rushing specialist. Big, slow, wall's-o-granite. that are all power and NO speed - need not apply.

We don't have enough of ANYTHING other teams would value enough to trade a higher pick.

Just because we need something badly - won't make the players we would trade, more valuable - it makes their higher draft pick, more valuable.

You can't get there from here.

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nybuccguy

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#25 : February 22, 2011, 12:47:10 AM



   WT, I agree that we dont have much to trade. Perhaps Josh Johnson, Faine, Zuttah, Stovall,etc.  But most likelly it would require picks. While I dont love the idea of giving up picks, I feel our DE position is so depleted that it may justfy it in this scenario.

   I somewhat disagree about what we need at DE. We obviously need to improve our passrush, but we also need to improve our run D which has finished 32nd and 28th the past two years. I think a balanced DE like Jordan or (to a lesser extent) Kerrigan would be our best investment. I think we might have the unusual ability to expect a better pass rush from our DTs than most teams going forward and can settle fora 6-8 sack guy who is a beast against the run too. Then we can take a flier on a guy like Romeus later in the draft or sign a RDE.


The White Tiger

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#26 : February 22, 2011, 01:16:17 AM

While the available talent fits that type of player nybucc - the reality is that won't improve the pass rush, we won't leverage Gerald McCoy's explosive first step from the DT position - because they can double team him  and take out the other average/slow/power DE's normally found on the left....that does not get better.

Perhaps we can stop the run - but it sets up something else.

If we don't get an LDE, and we don't change our base defense, then we're going to have to outscore folks.

I can only hope some folks are growing tired of players they've tried to force into the wrong system (Gholston?), or young quick DE's about to hit the FA market...

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ISLAND BUCS

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#27 : February 22, 2011, 03:06:36 AM

Probably, no-one expected the amazing back that Blount is to be there for anyone to take. 

We also think of those very elite DE's to be high 1st round choices.

But:  Justin Tuck drafted in the 3rd round 74th overall.
         
          Charles Johnson (Carolina)  3rd round  83 overall.

          Jason Babin a 1st round choice, then traded, and then twice a free agent

Maybe Dominik and his crew of scouts can pull off yet another magic trick.

I still root for C. Jordan, and would be more than willing to trade up to get him, but after the last 2 yrs, I trust Domenik to do what is bes.

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#28 : February 22, 2011, 10:22:10 PM

I don't think anyone was looking for Justin Tuck or Charles Johnson - they were complete surprises. If that happens - great.

Anyone who would have selected either in the first round would have been fired.

First rounders have to be winners - and it has to be in a position of need.

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Detrimental

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#29 : February 22, 2011, 11:15:25 PM

Charles Johnson was actually a good prospect at UGA. He just lacked super athletic ability and didn't have much upside but he projected as a 7-9 sack guy per year if he panned out.
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