JDub Mock

[JDouble]

I was Huggins biggest fan, but I'm a realist. He was a long shot underdog to start off. After his knee injury he is all but done. A little RB like him that depends on his speed and quick cuts just isn't going to be the same. Maybe by 2012, but not this year and by 2012 he'll just be an after thought. Besides, I've read his recovery is going slow and he probably won't even be ready for camp. Sucks, but his chances are 1 in a million.

[JDouble]

Got the contract information from here....   http://rotoworld.com/teams/contracts/nfl/tb/tampa-bay-buccaneers


If you're going to play GM, you have to take everything into account...   

Ok...still don't see where you are getting your $50 million. We would probably have $5-$6 million in penalties for cutting that entire bunch. These guys are bottom of the barrel and don't have a lot of guaranteed money in their contracts. GMs know how to work around penalties anyways so it would probably be even less than that.

[blind melon]

Money is an issue, but not the issue.  Even if they figure out a work around on the penalties and losses, there is still a
floor to get to...   going to be an interesting exercise for Dailey and Dominik IMO.

As fans, We do it every year...  (make these great wish lists) and put a lot of players on the street.  It just doesn't happen.

The offseason is all about getting some new 'toys' and I love prognasticating what I think they should do... (wouldn't be here otherwise) but
I'm learning not to put new guys in there just because and risk a losing season - especially after what they did last year and need to build upon . 
No time for taking a step back, this year.

The RB depth  you've suggested will never happen.  If only because of the protection issues - which lends itself to "...being all about number five..."

IMO - your front seven changes will decrease our ability to rush the passer and stop the run overall .   Although getting some of these
guys healthy will certainly help them in those areas.

FWIW - I think they're going to come out of these CBA Talks with an 18 game regular season, and increase the roster size to 60 + 10 PS.  That
will help keep some of those developmental guys that really are important when they try to develop their depth.

I don't think that this front office is ever going to be a big player in free agency.   I just think they've been burned enough already to proceed very, very cautiously if only
to not upset the balance inside the young  locker room. 


2 DE's, 1 LB, 1 FS, 1 C/G, 1 RB(F),  and maybe a TE in this draft will do us wonders...  +1 FA DE (I prefer Edwards - maturity and leadership on the young oline) will take care
of us this year, even though this should be a HUGE FA Offseason overall.   I wouldn't be surprised if they go looking for an FA MLB though...   I'm pretty sure that guy isn't Ruud.

Appreciate your efforts talking ball.

[JDouble]

You keep saying how that much turn over in one year will never happen and that it would hurt the team....but I'm not buying it. Ruud and Black are the only starters on that entire list. Most are 2nd and 3rd stringers, and many are only special teams players or practice squad guys. It's not nearly as big as you are making it out to be.

Secondly, have you been watching since Raheem got here? For the last two years we have had huge turnover on our roster. Today's team is already unrecognizable compared to our 2008 roster. Rah and Dom are not afraid to make big changes and last year showed that having a bunch of new young guys doesn't mean we have to struggle.

You are taking your opinion and trying to state it as fact. The truth is Ruud and Black are the only truly notable changes. Some may say Caddie too. Other than that it is simply an upgrade of depth. Trimming the fat so to speak. Moving on from players like Elbert Mack, John Gilmore, and Tim Crowder is not going to hurt the team. Especially when you replace them with Ras-I Dowling, Kevin Boss, and Ryan Kerrigan.

Also, how am I hurting the front seven's ability to get to the QB? You think replacing Crowder and Kyle Moore with Kerrigan and Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson is a downgrade? You think Ruud and Black are better pass rushers than Durant, Irving or McKenzie? This one has me scratching my head.

[blind melon]

You keep saying how that much turn over in one year will never happen and that it would hurt the team....but I'm not buying it. Ruud and Black are the only starters on that entire list. Most are 2nd and 3rd stringers, and many are only special teams players or practice squad guys. It's not nearly as big as you are making it out to be. I think with Stukes taking over ST's... some player continuity is paramount.  Black needs to stay.

Secondly, have you been watching since Raheem got here? absolutely For the last two years we have had huge turnover on our roster. Today's team is already unrecognizable compared to our 2008 roster. Rah and Dom are not afraid to make big changes and last year showed that having a bunch of new young guys doesn't mean we have to struggle. I get that Coach Morris only is going to put up with a guy until he can replace him.  The 2008 and 2009 teams desperately needed a good cleaning house.   The 2010 team (IMO) not so much.  This is where we disagree.  [/i]

You are taking your opinion and trying to state it as fact. The truth is Ruud and Black are the only truly notable changes. Some may say Caddie too. Other than that it is simply an upgrade of depth. Trimming the fat so to speak. Moving on from players like Elbert Mack, John Gilmore, and Tim Crowder is not going to hurt the team. Especially when you replace them with Ras-I Dowling, Kevin Boss, and Ryan Kerrigan.  It's my opinion and from my perspective, just as with yours - it's as factual as I know -     Of those three players, Crowder (again IMO) is the keeper. 

Also, how am I hurting the front seven's ability to get to the QB? You think replacing Crowder and Kyle Moore with Kerrigan and Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson is a downgrade? You think Ruud and Black are better pass rushers than Durant, Irving or McKenzie? This one has me scratching my head.  System familiarity.  I think Black has more value than the two less experienced guys, but there is still a system to learn - from all reports, quite a complex one.   That in itself degrades our pass rush, run d (again IMO.)   I love the idea of Kerrigan, Edwards, Crowder and Romeus as our DE's. 

Responded above. 

[CaptainStagger]

I usually agree with you but not on this one.....

I dont see the need for two new backs.....one speed back perhaps, but I would rather wait and see what I have in Huggins before I make that draft pick. He used to run a 4.2 lets see what he can do now. Besides I think Blount and Caddy were doing just fine at the end of the season and we have bigger needs. If we take a back it should be int eh mold of a sproles......

Also dont like the dowling pick......we have two starters in talib and barber, and two highly touted back ups that have yet to see much playing time but have splashed when they did. Remember what Barbers first year look liked?....Not Pretty.......

I like the Saunders pick up if it comes late, but think a safety should come late as well. It is not a need. A need being a starter. Jones and Grimm and Jackson when he returns are a fine starting rotation. Jones could be upgraded but would rather see more oline, more pass rush,  more LB help, and something with speed on offence.

Love the Irving Pick though......

(grrrrrr spellcheck is having java script errors.....)

[GameTime]

heres my slight changes.

Draft
1 - clayborn.  i want jordan but he doesnt slide.  dominik does his research on clayborn and he passes.
2 - dowling.  im guessing he can play both S/CB so his versatility makes the pick.
3 - stocker.  all around TE.
...

Re-signs
joseph, hayward, caddy, gilmore, lee.  a lot of role players and quality depth.

FA
tulloch, siler, durant, lutui...and gholston once he's cut.  big fast strong tough guys.



Offense 25 players

QB - Freeman,  JJ, Carpenter,
RB - Blount, Caddy Lumpkin
FB - Lorig, Graham
TE - Winslow, gilmore, stocker,
WR - Williams, Benn, Briscoe, Parker, Spurlock
G - Joseph, Lutui, hardman/carter
T - Penn, Lee, Dotson, Barker
C - Larsen, Zuttah


Defense 25 Players

RE - Clayborn, Bennett, Gholston
UT -  Price, Okam
NT - Miller, Woods
LE - McCoy, Magee
WLB - Durant, Hayes
MLB - Tulloch, McKenzie, Siler
SLB - Watson, Hayward
CB - Talib, Barber, , Biggers, Lewis
FS - Dowling, Jones, lynch
SS - Grimm, Asante

Special Teams  3 Players

K - Conner Barth
P - Robert Malone
LS - Economos

[Larry Brackins]

I'm sorry, but you lost all credit when you called Chad Spann a speed back. I go to NIU, I love him as a player, but fast and Chad Spann do not go together. He runs like a bull, but he's not fast.

[JDouble]

I'm sorry, but you lost all credit when you called Chad Spann a speed back. I go to NIU, I love him as a player, but fast and Chad Spann do not go together. He runs like a bull, but he's not fast.

I think you mean credibility. Anyways, Spann isn't a 4.3 guy buy any means but he is quick and he is fast. My guess is he'll run in the high 4.4s  He does run hard, that's why I like him...but without speed, running like a bull alone doesn't get a 195lb HB 41 TDs in two years. I appreciate that you go to NIU, but I can see the TV screen just as clearly as you can see the field from the stands. This kid is not slow.

Maybe speed back isn't the best description. He reminds me of a cross between Warrick Dunn and MJD. More quick than fast, and top end speed isn't elite, but hardly slow.

[GameTime]

where is that darn "modify" button?  after reading PR's take on clayborn i vote to use our 4th and JJ to move up to get the DE we want...Quinn or Jordan. 

[Skull and Bones]

it's taken me awhile but I've figured out if you leave the board, even if it's to go to the cove or the PI board, and come back the modify option is no longer avail.  But back to your point, I think it would take more ammo than that to get Quinn or Jordan.  Quinn is poised to have a terrific combine.

[GameTime]

agree, more of a pipe dream.  in that case stay put and grab kerrigan with this scenario.

[JDouble]

I don't think there is any DE in this draft that jumps out as worth trading up for. Possibly Quinn if he hadn't missed an entire year, but he did and he has that brain tumor. That makes him a bit risky. He comes the closest to being special enough to trade up for, but I don't see it in anyone else. Between Watt, Jordan, Kerrigan, Smith, Clayborn, and Houston...I don't think there is any factual reason to believe one has a better chance at being great over the others. We'll get one of them. Staying put is the smart move.

Now if there is a DE we really prefer and he is still there at 15 or 16, then sure...jump up and get him, but moving up more than 5 spots is just not worth it. Not for anyone in this draft.

[BucBalla85]

Only way I see us trading down is a couple of spots. Give up something small like when we moved up for freeman.

[The White Tiger]

No way do we target JJ Watt or Cam Jordan with the 1st overall - as they are definitely and none other than the combine folks agree with that assessment:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/story/09000d5d81e66126/article/plenty-of-nflready-dlinemen-will-be-on-hand-in-indy

Factoring in the PR report on how the team feels about Clayborn and that only leaves cats like Bowers, Quinn, Smith, and Kerrigan.

I'm waitng on the stats from the key workouts beginning tomorrow (any combine/draft-nicks can watch live-streaming, multiple camera angles here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/live ).

And while I'm on record as to ranking 40 times very highly - Pat Kirwan shared a couple of interesting formulas from his book; the first is what he terms Production Ratio it combines real numbers, in actual games to determine the effectiveness of a player in some key areas. Production Ratio is Sack totals + Tackles for Loss divided by number of games played (Sacks + TFL's : games = PR).

Here's what this years draft looks like using Kirwans formula:

Player                  Pos       School        SKS     TFL   Games    P. Ratio

Da'Quan Bowers      DE     Clemson        19.5    43.5      37           1.70

Robert Quinn             DE    No. Carolina   13       25.5      25           1.54

Cameron Jordan      DE     California        17.5   34          50           1.03

Adrian Clayborn        DE        Iowa              19      37.5       51           1.11

Ryan Kerrigan           DE     Purdue            37.5    55.5      48           1.94

J.J. Watt                      DE     Wisconsin      11.5    36.5      40           1.20

Cameron Heyward  DE       Ohio St.          15.5    37.5      52           1.02

Jabaal Sheard          DE     Pittsburgh       19.5    35.5      46           1.19

Christian Ballard      DE          Iowa            12       21.5      49            0.68

Allen Bailey                DE        Miami (Fla.)  20      30          61           0.82

Sam Acho                  DE        Texas            20       40         49            1.22

He then suggests explosiveness is another filter needed to define the best prospects at certain positions, specifically pass rushers (4-3 RDE's and 3-4 OLB's). So, Kirwan shared another formula called Explosion Number  which is calculated using a players number of bench-press reps (@225lbs) + Vertical Jump + Standing Broad Jump = Explosion Number.

Since we'll have to await this data for the 2011 draft class - someone compiled the following list with some interesting names.

NAME                         POS. VERTICAL BROAD BENCH TOTAL

Mario Williams          DE         40.5           10.0       35        85.5

Brodrick Bunkley       DT         32.5             9.05     44        85.5

Vernon Gholston      DE         35.5           10.05     37        83.0

Jon Alston                 OLB        40.0           11.0       30        81.0

Ray Edwards             DE         39.0            9.06      30        78.06

Haloti Ngata               DT         31.5            9.02      37        77.52

Ernie Sims                 LB          41.0           10.05    25        76.05

Dusty Dvoracek         DT         34.0             9.06     31        74.06

A.J. Hawk                  OLB        40.0             9.07     24        73.07

Kamerion Wimbley  DE         38.5           10.09     24        72.59

Manny Lawson         DE         39.5           10.04     23        72.54

Demeco Ryans       OLB        39.0           10.09    23        72.09

Rodrique Wright       DT         32.0              9.02    31        72.02

I'm beginning to side even more with GameTime on the Vernon Gholston speculation - at least as it relates to landing a potential RDE this year. When I looked at Gholston's explosion number from college it totaled 1.96 (Sacks-22.5 + TFL's-30.5 =53 : 27 games games). It won't take a whole lot to check him out if he's cut from the roster of the Jets.

Otherwise, Kerrigan looks better than I first imagined, just not sure he'll be around then either - just have to see what the combine numbers reveal...