JDub Mock

[JDouble]

Imo Kirwin and his formulas are silly and pointless. It's not a mathematical calculation with a right and wrong answer. They are people. You can look at numbers and get some sort of idea what kind of athlete a guy is...but there is no formula you can write down on paper that can tell you wether a kid is a good football player.

[The White Tiger]

Well, I was going to overlay 40 times to drive home a point - but I figured it was enough math...silly numbers.

Don't you hate it when it the numbers reveal 3rd and 4th round "surprises" (that's what the teams that don't use math in their research, call them), though?

While it is true - there still is no definitive tool to find the "sure things" - teams spending million$ see think that using more tools as filters enhance the results.

Ot they wouldn't use them.

[The White Tiger]

No way do we target JJ Watt or Cam Jordan with the 1st overall - as they are definitely do not fit a 4-3 base defense - and none other than the combine folks agree with that assessment:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/story/09000d5d81e66126/article/plenty-of-nflready-dlinemen-will-be-on-hand-in-indy

Factoring in the PR report on how the team feels about Clayborn and that only leaves cats like Bowers, Quinn, Smith, and Kerrigan.

I'm waitng on the stats from the key workouts beginning tomorrow (any combine/draft-nicks can watch live-streaming, multiple camera angles here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/live ).

And while I'm on record as to ranking 40 times very highly - Pat Kirwan shared a couple of interesting formulas from his book; the first is what he terms Production Ratio it combines real numbers, in actual games to determine the effectiveness of a player in some key areas. Production Ratio is Sack totals + Tackles for Loss divided by number of games played (Sacks + TFL's : games = PR).

Here's what this years draft looks like using Kirwans formula:

Player                  Pos       School        SKS     TFL   Games    P. Ratio

Ryan Kerrigan           DE     Purdue            37.5    55.5      48           1.94

Da'Quan Bowers      DE     Clemson        19.5    43.5      37           1.70

Robert Quinn             DE    No. Carolina   13       25.5      25           1.54

Sam Acho                  DE        Texas            20       40         49           1.22

J.J. Watt                      DE     Wisconsin      11.5    36.5      40           1.20

Jabaal Sheard          DE     Pittsburgh       19.5    35.5      46           1.19

Adrian Clayborn        DE        Iowa              19      37.5       51           1.11

Cameron Jordan      DE     California        17.5   34          50           1.03

Cameron Heyward  DE       Ohio St.          15.5    37.5      52           1.02

Allen Bailey                DE        Miami (Fla.)  20      30          61           0.82

Christian Ballard      DE          Iowa            12       21.5      49            0.68

He then suggests explosiveness is another filter needed to define the best prospects at certain positions, specifically pass rushers (4-3 RDE's and 3-4 OLB's). So, Kirwan shared another formula called Explosion Number  which is calculated using a players number of bench-press reps (@225lbs) + Vertical Jump + Standing Broad Jump = Explosion Number.

Since we'll have to await this data for the 2011 draft class - someone compiled the following list with some interesting names.

NAME                         POS. VERTICAL BROAD BENCH TOTAL

Mario Williams          DE         40.5           10.0       35        85.5

Brodrick Bunkley       DT         32.5             9.05     44        85.5

Vernon Gholston      DE         35.5           10.05     37        83.0

Jon Alston                 OLB        40.0           11.0       30        81.0

Ray Edwards             DE         39.0            9.06      30        78.06

Haloti Ngata               DT         31.5            9.02      37        77.52

Ernie Sims                 LB          41.0           10.05    25        76.05

Dusty Dvoracek         DT         34.0             9.06     31        74.06

A.J. Hawk                  OLB        40.0             9.07     24        73.07

Kamerion Wimbley  DE         38.5           10.09     24        72.59

Manny Lawson         DE         39.5           10.04     23        72.54

Demeco Ryans       OLB        39.0           10.09    23        72.09

Rodrique Wright       DT         32.0              9.02    31        72.02

I'm beginning to side even more with GameTime on the Vernon Gholston speculation - at least as it relates to landing a potential RDE this year. When I looked at Gholston's Production Ratio from his college data, it totaled 1.96 (Sacks-22.5 + TFL's-30.5 =53 : 27 games games) which would rank him above the top player in this years draft. Since GameTime's correct in that it won't take a whole lot to check him out if he's cut from the roster of the Jets - why not pick him up on a flier to see if he can be a better fit as a RDE for a 4-3 base defensive line (like he was in college)?

Otherwise, Kerrigan looks better than I first imagined, just not sure he'll be around then either - have to see what the combine numbers reveal...

and since the tables are lined up so well...I really must make sure it makes it to a new page.

[JDouble]

I'm just curious why you feel the need to post this here? Is my mock draft thread really the best place for this?

[alldaway]

RG is the easiest position to replace, so I don't think Davin Joseph should be spared, nor do I believe that the Bucs shouldn't try to upgrade RG in 2011. In place of one of the RB's I would suggest the Bucs take a flyer on a late round guard.  An additional RB can be had through UDFA to take Lumpkin's place on the roster.

[The White Tiger]

I'm just curious why you feel the need to post this here? Is my mock draft thread really the best place for this?

Only if folks are trying to evaluate the DE's you suggest we should draft at 20th overall.

[The White Tiger]

Sorry Jdub - I did attempt to move this - but apparently the board time limit ran out and I was unable to delete it from your thread. I do understand your wanting to keep this about your topic.

[JDouble]

2011 Draft Class

1. RE Ryan Kerrigan - He might end up being our LE down the road, but this year he will be our RE and that is an upgrade over anyone on our roster. There isn't much bust factor here. He's just a hard working guy with good instincts and good fundamentals. His love for the game and his work ethic make him a solid pick that should provide 8+ sacks a year and improve our run defense. Alternate pick: DE Justin Houston

2. CB Ras I Dowling - This guy is a Talib clone but a better tackler and he is a very well mannered intelligent guy. He won't be punching any cab drivers or teamates. Even if Barber returns he will only be a one year stop gap, and Lewis/Biggers are solid depth for nickel and dime packages or in case of injury, but I'm not convinced either is a play making starter. Right now they both appear to be more on the level of Phillip Buchanon, which is nice, but not ideal. With Dowling we could have two shut down physcial corners that are also good in run defense. Biggers, and Lewis still play an important role in Nickel and Dime formations, as well as providing great depth in case of injury. No more Mack. Alternate pick: OT Marcus Cannon

3. FS Ahmad Black - His size makes me nervous and he is a bit of a risky pick, but he is a ball hawking playmaker and he is a huge Tampa fan. He watches every game and says he already knows Rah's defense. Can't get a better fit. I just hope his frame can hold up. Definetly worth the 3rd round pick if he slips this far. Alternate pick: Jacquizz Rodgers

4. MLB Nate Irving - Probably not ready to step in immediatly and be our MLB and lead our defense, but he has everything you want in a MLB. Leadership, size, strength, instincts, a hard hitting mean streak. He does well in coverage, but his strength is his ability to shed blocks to stop the run and rush the passer. He is as quick/fast as Ruud, but lacks the top end speed to be our WLB. He'll need to improve his tackling fundamentals too, but he'll be ready to be a stud MLB for us in 2012 and beyond. This year he would provide good depth and see spot duty at MLB and/or SLB. Alternate pick: OLB Chris Carter

5. TE Jordon Cameron - I think this is the all around TE we have been looking to pair with Winslow. He's got soft hands and great athletism, he's really good at finding the soft spot in coverage. He's everything we hoped Purvis would be. He is an ex-basketball player and it shows in the passing game, but he is a big, well built  guy with good blocking strength too. Alternate pick: TE Julius Thomas

6. MLB Mario Harvey - Under rated. Only 5'11" but 250lbs. Has great instincts and strength. More production than any of the top ranked MLBs in this draft. Solid depth if not a starter for us. I could see him competing with McKenzie and Black for the starting MLB spot this year. Could also play SLB. Alternate pick: MLB Josh Bynes

6b. RB Allen Bradford - We need another big power back to fill in for Blount when he needs rest or is injured. Bradford is that man. He also could be Caddies replacment as 3rd down back. (This is the compensatory pick for Antonio Bryant) Alternate pick: RB Mario Fannin

7. RB Chad Spann - Change of pace speedy back. Only 5'8" but 200lbs. Very underrated. This kid is awesome. Caddie and Lumpkin are out. Bradford and Spann are in. Alternate Pick: Taiwan Jones

Undrafted Free Agents

OLB Mike Gee - Small school but big time player. Great rushing LB with perfect size and speed. Great depth or eventual starter at strong side. He is also from a small town in Jersey just blocks from where Rah grew up.

ILB - Tressor Baptiste - Hard to judge guys in division II, but he looks promising. He looks good when pass rushing and stopping the run, but what really caught my eye is his abilities in coverage. Really seems to enjoy big hits

Free Agents

LB  Justin Durant - Can play all three LB positions in a 4-3. Not exactly an explosive game changer, but always consistantly good and while young, he is an experienced vet. Had a bad 2010 due to an ankle injury and could be somewhat cheap.

DE Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson - I like Johnson and Edwards equally. Both will require a pretty penny to sign but both are worth it. Either guy would compliment Kerrigan and it wouldn't really matter who was LE and who was RE.

RT Tyson Clabo* - Hurt a division rival and improve our run game in one move. Clabo is 29 but an immediate upgrade over Trueblood or James Lee, especially in the run game. Could have another 4 or 5 good years left in him. If we don't sign him I'd resign Trueblood.

TE  Kevin Boss - Not as big a name as Zach Miller or Mercedese Lewis, but he has quietly been very good for the Giants. Excels in run blocking but also has great hands and the ability to quickly find the soft spot in coverages. He is a better blocker than reciever, but solid all around.

Our Free Agents

G Davin Joseph - He's not as good as many think, but he is still good. Now is not the time to try and upgrade over him.

T Jeremy Trueblood* - He was actually pretty good last year and didn't have a lot of penalties like year's past. He isn't a guaranteed starter anymore, but would create good competition with Lee and Dotson. If we don't sign Clabo I think Trueblood is a must.

CB Ronde Barber - Already signed, sealed, and delivered.    Our young CBs will all gain a lot from one more year around Barber.

MLB  Adam Heyward - I'm not sure he makes the final cut, but he deserves a chance to compete in camp and could help with experience and continuity since Ruud is gone. Plus he's a very solid ST player.

SLB Quincy Black - He doesn't get the starting job handed to him this year, but I'd like to see him get a chance to earn it. Between Durant, Irving, McKenzie, and Watson though, he could end up providing great depth.

[JDog]

CB Ronde Barber - Already signed, sealed, and delivered. 

Sealed?   

[JDouble]

I need a few days to take everything in from the combine. I think everything will pretty much stay the same except for Ahmad Black. I was willing to overlook his size because he is a playmaker and seems to be a perfect fit for Tampa, but small and slow is a bit much. I'm thinking he's more like a 5th round pick. Definitely not a 3rd.

[Detrimental]

I think we should grab an interior linemen at round 3 or 2.