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michael89156

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: March 06, 2011, 01:25:50 AM

Source:   BucsDraft.com
Saturday, March 5, 2011


Why Tampa Bay Will Not Trade Up

One draft publication I really watch is Great Blue North Draft Report (GBN).  They do have a Packer's slant, but they also have a lot of good information.

However, right now, their 2011 draft projection looks to be off by quite a bit to me.  They are currently speculating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will trade their first and second round draft choices to move up in the first round from the 20th to the 12th position. With this pick, they are thinking the Buccaneers will take a defensive end.

Now I enjoy draft speculation just like any other fan this time year.  But this seems to me to be way, way out on a limb.  I don't see any reason for the Buccaneers to make such a desperate move and, according to GBN, Tampa Bay would still only get the 4th best defensive end in the draft class at the 12th position.  It does not sound like a value move to me.

Buccaneers General Manager Mark Dominik has demonstrated he and his staff make the most out of everything they are given on draft day. There is no reason at this point in the rebuilding process to give two draft picks for one single player, particularly a player who is not at least in the top five overall.

It's another symptom of the general feeling that the Buccaneers will do anything for a defensive end in the 2011 draft. Not only are there plenty of reasons not to pick a defensive end (or any specific position), this draft is not as talented as recent drafts. Teams at the top of the order will be fortunate enough to get an impact player from a small group; the rest will get typical second round talent. Those up high in the order this year are not going to give up their position easily, if at all.

Dominik has spent the past two years refurbishing a roster which needed young talent and playmakers. If you go down the roster today there is no glaring need for a specific position. It's a situation that should be the envy of other general managers across the NFL. Dominik has put himself in position to select the best available player on board with each pick in 2011, and he should. No trades are needed to make this draft a solid crop.

Consider this: in 2009, Tampa Bay picked at nearly the same position. Their first two picks were Josh Freeman (1st round) and Roy Miller (3rd round, Tampa Bay did not have a 2nd round pick). Is there another player in that draft worth those two players?  Picks 10-14 that year were Micheal Crabtree (49ers), Aaron Maybin (Bills), Knowshon Moreno (Broncos), Brian Orakpo (Redskins), and Malcolm Jenkins (Saints).  No way any one of them could possibly have meant as much as Freeman and Miller have meant to the Buccaneers.

So don't look for fireworks from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round of the 2011 draft. We just aren't that desperate anymore.

Boid Fink

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#1 : March 06, 2011, 01:44:06 AM

Agree with the premise.

The BUcs did move up to nab Freeman, so I think as the selections inch nearer to the 20th selection, and the Bucs spot someone that they truly covet (who knows who that may be), that they might pull the trigger on a deal to move up a few spots.  Maybe 2 or 3 at the most, IMO.  The draft is not that great, and if someone is still there...I can see them doing some light maneuvering to get what they desire.  A la Freeman.

However, I do not think that this happens.

I would also suspect that getting a DE might not be a total lock as so many think.  It is a great possibility, but if there is a good value pick available at 20, well...I think the BUcs might pull the trigger and get a DE with their second and third round picks perhaps.  There will some left over for certain...


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#2 : March 06, 2011, 07:14:55 AM

One would think DE is a glaring need. Crowder, Bennett, Magee, Worthington(PS)and Johnson(PS) sure dont inspire any type confidence. Whites contract is up and its looking like he wont be resigned and he was only good for a hanful of sacks. Thats the only position of glaring need. Thats why every mock in the world has them taking a pass rusher. The ones that dont have them taking o-line or they are just retarded and have them picking DT or something.

Its no secret the Bucs want a top DE with their first pick. If a top DE isnt there though, they could go another route. Thats the only way they wont pick a pass rusher, there isnt one left they like worth a 1st. MD has traded up early in the last two drafts as well. It really depends on who falls where though, they may even trade back if the value isnt there. I see a trade up as far more likely though being the Bucs have only one glaring need and they may try to fill it early.




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nitey

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#3 : March 06, 2011, 07:32:21 AM

I mostly agree with Boid.

While I think the Bucs might move up a couple of slots to get someone they like, I also think there is a decent possibility that they could move down a few as well. Chances are, if we are looking at only a DE or hybrid DE/LB player we will be looking at the 4th to 6th best player at that position. The Bucs will look at their board and if they have a couple of players that they like that all have a similar grade I could see them moving down for a extra 5th or 6th round pick. The Bucs, as well as other teams, have mentioned that there is a lot of depth at the DE position and what that means to me is that good DE prospects can still be found deeper in the draft.

Now, I don't see the Bucs making any type of crazy moves, i.e. trading their 2nd to move to the 12th position or trading out of the 1st round completely, but Dominick does seem to like to make minor trades during the draft. Currently we have 7 picks, I believe, and we will probably get another compensation pick for Bryant for later in the draft. With 8 picks, we can pretty much address most of our areas of concern. But we are not a player or two away from being an elite team, so I don't see Dominick mortgaging the future on any one player in this draft, certainly not by trading a high draft pick to move up only 8 spots. Maybe next year that type of move will be on the table, but I don't see it for this year.

If I read Dominick's draft strategy correctly, he has often mentioned about letting the draft 'come to you', so unless a player with a Simeon Rice type of ability falls during the draft much like Warren Sapp did in 1995, I'm willing to bet that the Bucs pick between 17th and 24th on the opening day draft.

JMO.

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tatmanfish

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#4 : March 06, 2011, 08:06:23 AM

The Bucs couuld trade up to 12 without using their second round pick though. They could package a 3rd, and 4th, or even a 3rd and a pick next year. Not saying its going to happen, but you dont have to trade away the second round pick to get up there.



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#5 : March 06, 2011, 09:07:29 AM

Since there are no plans (as we all expect) to be a player in FA, you don't give away your 2nd round pick.  There will be WAY too much value on the boards in the 2nd round.  I agree with Boid in that any trade up will be just a couple of slots higher and the compensation is a 4th or lower.  Our 3rd MAYBE if we get a couple 3rd/4th compensatory picks.

blind melon

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#6 : March 06, 2011, 09:26:09 AM

I think the viable window is to 15...  to get in front of the Jags if DE is the target.

I would hope the CBA is done, so we can look at a player trade.    Although I don't think MD has ever combined a pick and player to move in the draft.

I highly doubt they would trade down, unless they could get a player they covet (not an additional pick.)

Just my $.02 though...

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#7 : March 06, 2011, 09:26:59 AM

if for some freak reason Quinn ,or Bowers slips out of the top 10.....you need to hit it...2 jems in the waiting...


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#8 : March 06, 2011, 09:33:05 AM

if we get the right RDE, i dont really care what picks we give up to get him.

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#9 : March 06, 2011, 11:36:00 AM

They only gave upa fifth rounder to move up to get Freeman...

If they can move up and it only cost them a 4th they will do it to get a guy they want


Detrimental

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#10 : March 06, 2011, 01:14:14 PM

if we get the right RDE, i dont really care what picks we give up to get him.
+infinity

Quinn or Bowers slip out the top 10, the Bucs WILL make that phone call.

bfarbs

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#11 : March 06, 2011, 01:49:02 PM

I disagree with the premise that the Bucs would not trade up.. Philosophically speaking the Bucs want to build through the draft, no questioning that.. However, the Bucs really added multiple players last year that were released by other teams that could also be considered draft picks including 2 starters: RB Blount and G Larsen.  Throw in S Asante and LB McKenzie as well, the latter whom I think has a legitimate chance to be a starter in the near future.  By my logic, Blount would have been worth a 2nd round pick, Larsen a 4th round pick, and McKenzie a 4th round pick as well. So in reality, the Bucs had 3 2nd round picks last year and 3 4th round picks so Dominik should not feel that he needs to hoard all his picks in the top 3 round this year. The team just doesnt have as many holes on the roster as previous years and our defense will never become elite again without at least one stud pass rushing DE. This draft is deep in quality DEs, and that is unlikely to repeat itself in the next 3 or 4 years. If we are optimistic about our future, we should not plan on having top 15 picks in the draft anytime soon. Thus, it will be hard for us to draft a top flight DE again without resorting to free agency or getting lucky with a draft pick.  The depth of this draft should enable a solid DE to drop as far as 16, but it is far from a guarantee that one of the DEs we covet will slip to 20. Thus, tossing in a high draft pick to move up to get one of the DEs we covet should definitely be on the board. I agree that parting with our 2nd round pick would be difficult and I do not advocate that, but a 3rd and 6th round pick is enough points by trade chart to move up to 15 (Dolphins) while a 3rd and 5th would be almost enough to move up to 14 (Rams). Unfortunately, if the Dolphins are targeting RB Mark Ingram with its 1st round pick they wont trade down to our pick for fear of losing him to Patriots or Giants. Rams could trade down if 2nd highest rated WR, Julio Jones gets taken prior to their pick. Watch Redskins: they the one team I could see snagging Jones before the Rams selection.
: March 06, 2011, 01:52:17 PM bfarbs

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#12 : March 06, 2011, 01:55:49 PM

If we are within strikin distance of the player we want, recent history has proven that we'll will go get him.

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 I thought Lovie said he wanted quickness & speed, even at the QB position?

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#13 : March 06, 2011, 08:07:59 PM

The Bucs will not move up at the price of a first and a second. They might move up for something less but that's just speculation.

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#14 : March 07, 2011, 05:22:44 AM

if we can trade down to 14 and not give away the store for Kerrigan why not.....but if Bowers or Quinn are still there after pick 10......all bets are off......then i'd give our 3rd 4TH next years 2nd and 3RD.....everybody on this board would cream if we could get Bowers or Quinn...a move like that WOULD SELL TICKETS FOR SURE....and we would be on a fast track to the SB ....THIS YEAR.
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