Most overrated prospects: Kerrigan

[Feel Real Good]

swwet vid, now lets count how many times he was untouched or went up against a TE. Kerrigan fan boys tend to over look the fact that he was constantly untouched from the backside on his "highlight" run defenses, lots of blown blocking assignment, or from play breakdowns. Watch his games against ND and Michigan. If hes the biggest threat on Prudue, teams never doubled him and rarely made a point to try to stop him with extra help.

One problem I have watching highlights of these DE's is so many college offenses run the spread and zone blocking, the DE's rarely even go against the OT's. The OT's are almost always down blocking on the DT's leaving the TE to block the DE away from the play. You really have to look to find plays where the DE is doing the things he'll be doing in the NFL.

[JDouble]

This is all true. Not just with Kerrigan, but all DE prospects. You definitely have to pay attention to who they are beating to get a true feel for what they can do.

[Detrimental]

swwet vid, now lets count how many times he was untouched or went up against a TE. Kerrigan fan boys tend to over look the fact that he was constantly untouched from the backside on his "highlight" run defenses, lots of blown blocking assignment, or from play breakdowns. Watch his games against ND and Michigan. If hes the biggest threat on Prudue, teams never doubled him and rarely made a point to try to stop him with extra help.

Hes the most overrated prospect on this board. Hes a good DE and a solid prospect, but no way in hell is he the best. If he was, hed be in the talk for a top 10 pick. He just isnt and its for a reason. EVERY scout and mock site in the country has him going outside of the top 10.

+1

[rgator13]

I am a production over potential guy...NOBODY can argue with Kerrigan's career numbers he has been start to finish the most dominant end in this draft....not only that he was one of the only threats on that Purdue line so most likely he dominated verses constant double maybe triple teams...when teams focused on him primarily....that alone gets me excited

He might not be sleek, he might not go to a college where they have flashy uniforms, he wont run a 4.4 40, and he wont be a guy who will roll up with a neck full of gold playing hip hop in his custom bentley (most likely will drive a truck)...but the guy will put in the work, he will be here from start to finish. He will not be a jailbird. He will produce, and he, nlike some of the top DE's in this draft, has no injury problems to speak of.

The guy will be a steal at 20...I dont see him lasting that long however

[rgator13]

Not to mention the ladies again will have a player from Purdue to croon over because he is a handsome guy...very marketable and will sell jerseys and seats

[Feel Real Good]

I am a production over potential guy...NOBODY can argue with Kerrigan's career numbers he has been start to finish the most dominant end in this draft....not only that he was one of the only threats on that Purdue line so most likely he dominated verses constant double maybe triple teams...when teams focused on him primarily....that alone gets me excited

Production is extremely overrated. You need to have a minimum, but after that it doesn't matter.

Gaines Adams, 4 years at Clemson: 31 sacks

Brian Orakpo, 4 years at Texas: 22 sacks

[blind melon]

So is Kerrigan more like Orakpo or Adams?

[Feel Real Good]

So is Kerrigan more like Orakpo or Adams?

I don't know, but the fact that he has more career sacks than prospect x, y, and z means nothing.

[blind melon]

Agreed.

[Booker Reese]

I'm not sure I agree with the production is "overrated" argument - Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumerville, Dwight Freeney, anyone? Those are just off the top of my head - 3 guys with ridiculous production overlooked in the draft  (to differing extent) because their measurables weren't up to snuff. Suggs was too slow (and not proto-type height), Dumerville too short and slow, and Freeney was too small.

Certainly it's not everything - lack of production can sometimes be explained, and sometimes great production is phony.  But it's not "nothing." It's more important how they get their sacks - do they have a great first step, polished moves, a great bull rush, excellent hands and feet, can they close, etc. But the funny thing about that is that most of the guys with lots of those attributes, collect a large number of sacks. Most guys that don't have those attributes don't.

The idea that Kerrigan has more free looks than other guys is laughable. That happens to all of them. I've seen a lot of these guys being single blocked by a back, unblocked, or blocked only by a TE (Orakpo is actually a great example of that - one of the red flags Mayock had on him was that Brandon Pettigrew absolutely owned him when they faced each other in college). That happens in college.

I watched the entire Michigan State-Purdue game with my eyes glued on Kerrigan and Greg Jones. The guy was all over Michigan State, and they used all kinds of players and chips to keep him away. 

 

[Booker Reese]

but he completed a 2 week on-line coarse on how to be a GM.  The guys an expert.

He was trained by Russ Lande, who is a former NFL scout

I enjoy reading his stuff (though I disagree with his stuff quite often), but taking an 8-week online course even if it involved Russ Lande does not him an expert. 

As for his take on Kerrigan, he was on this "stiff" and "unathletic" meme before Kerrigan was at the combine. When Kerrigan did better than he imagined possible, he essentially ignored it.

[Feel Real Good]

I'm not sure I agree with the production is "overrated" argument - Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumerville, Dwight Freeney, anyone? Those are just off the top of my head - 3 guys with ridiculous production overlooked in the draft  (to differing extent) because their measurables weren't up to snuff. Suggs was too slow (and not proto-type height), Dumerville too short and slow, and Freeney was too small.

I'd say the difference with those three guys is, yes, they had good-to-great career numbers, but they all had amazing peak seasons. Freeney had 17.5 sacks his senior season, Suggs 24 sacks his junior season before going pro, and Dumervil 17 his senior season. Kerrigan's numbers have been of a more "compiling" nature, never topping 12.5 in a season.

[yuccaneers]

You also have to look at the numbers in context, most teams back then did not run a spread offense as much as they do now. So sack numbers are going to dip when teams consistently run a spread type system.

[Booker Reese]

Wait a second - I"m not using those guys as a comparison to Kerrigan. I don't think Kerrigan's as good a prospect as either Freeney or Suggs. I'm just having a go at your argument about production.

I would point out though that one thing Kerrigan does have that a lot of other guys in this draft don't - a second very good year. I've seen some arguments on this board (can't remember who made them) that go like this - when you compare Bowers first three years to Kerrigans first three years, they are basically the same guy; i.e., you can't use Bowers lack of a 4th year against him. Except that next year matters - George Selvie anyone?  How about Adrian Clayborn?

[Feel Real Good]

Wait a second - I"m not using those guys as a comparison to Kerrigan. I don't think Kerrigan's as good a prospect as either Freeney or Suggs. I'm just having a go at your argument about production.

My basic point, which Yuccs reiterated, was that career numbers without context don't mean much. Did the player go to prep school before college? Dide he redshirt? What kind of depth was at his position? Did he go through a coaching change? Did his numbers get better or worse? Did he leave school early?

I'm generally of the opinion if you're not a super pass rushing prospect, you just need a minimum set of stats and then after that the purely physical stuff takes over. For a pass rusher I like to see a development year with 7-8 sacks and then a breakout year with 11 or more. Anything beyond that seems meaningless.