I found this post on the Lions site with a link to the original article.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6934823/grantland-mega-nfl-preview-part-iiReality check: The Bucs were not that good last year
The Bucs finished the 2010 season with wins over Seattle and New Orleans. Neither team had anything to play for when they took on Tampa. Take away those two wins and you're left with an 8-6 team that was outscored by 10 points despite facing one of the easiest schedules a team could imagine.
The Bucs' eight other wins came against teams that were a combined 37-91 on the season. That's roughly akin to beating the Bills eight times. Even with that easy schedule, they weren't exactly stomping their weak competition. They started the season by going 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They went 4-0 against the NFC West, beat the 2-14 Panthers twice, picked up two wins against the weak sisters of the AFC North, the Bengals and Browns, and had a one-point victory over the Redskins that was sealed when Washington missed a game-tying extra point with six seconds left.
Outside of the win against the semi-Saints, they were 0-5 against teams with winning records and were outscored by a total of 67 points in those five games. The Bucs were one of eight teams in 2010 to play just six games against teams with a .500 record or better. Six of those eight teams that got to play such an easy schedule won 10 or more games.
And from 1994 to 2009, 36 teams played a schedule that had only six .500-or-better teams on the slate. They won an average of 10.4 games that year. In the following season, they won an average of just 7.6 games. After getting to play the AFC North and NFC West last season, the Buccaneers will have to face the NFC North and AFC South this season.
There are reasons to believe that the Buccaneers might be able to avoid the downswing. They played well in two narrow losses to the Falcons and lost to the Ravens on the road by only one score. The second half of their season was marked by a series of season-ending injuries to key players, including star cornerback Aqib Talib and the third overall pick in the 2010 draft, Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. The McCoy injury was part of the reason why the Bucs allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, the second-worst rate in the league. Talib also managed to duck a suspension for his offseason arrest on felony assault charges. The Buccaneers will sport one of the league's youngest lineups for the second season in a row, with the distinct possibility that at least 18 of their 22 starters on offense and defense will be 28 or younger heading into the season. Josh Freeman looks to be the best quarterback out of the 2009 draft through two seasons, although the miraculous drop in his interception rate (from 6.2 percent as a rookie to 1.3 percent last season) has no hope of sticking. The Bucs are one year away from really emerging as a serious contender in the NFC West, but they're going to struggle to hit .500 this year.
Best-case scenario: Freeman takes another leap forward and becomes the best quarterback in the division, a healthy defense finally starts to stop the run, and Tampa heads into the playoffs as an emerging dynasty in the NFC South.
Worst-case scenario: Freeman's interception rate goes north of 3 percent, Talib gets arrested again and goes the way of Pacman Jones, and a tougher schedule pushes the Bucs back to 5-11.
