Reality check: The Bucs were not that good last year

[NovaBuc]

There are reasons to believe that the Buccaneers might be able to avoid the downswing. They played well in two narrow losses to the Falcons and lost to the Ravens on the road by only one score. The second half of their season was marked by a series of season-ending injuries to key players, including star cornerback Aqib Talib and the third overall pick in the 2010 draft, Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. The McCoy injury was part of the reason why the Bucs allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, the second-worst rate in the league. Talib also managed to duck a suspension for his offseason arrest on felony assault charges. The Buccaneers will sport one of the league's youngest lineups for the second season in a row, with the distinct possibility that at least 18 of their 22 starters on offense and defense will be 28 or younger heading into the season. Josh Freeman looks to be the best quarterback out of the 2009 draft through two seasons, although the miraculous drop in his interception rate (from 6.2 percent as a rookie to 1.3 percent last season) has no hope of sticking. The Bucs are one year away from really emerging as a serious contender in the NFC West, but they're going to struggle to hit .500 this year.

 If we stay healthier than last year, I think we'll be fine. There was marked improvement as the year went on, until our starting defense was more or less crippled by injuries. Even with those injuries, we were playing very well at the end of the year. Regardless of what people think, New Orleans and Seattle were trying to win the games against us - New Orleans had a chance to improve their playoff situation due to owning the tie breakers over Atlanta and Seattle was fighting with the Rams for the NFC West crown. Neither team 'rested' people against us.

[lazoran]

If the Saints win that game they get home field advantage and never lose against the Seahawks in the first post season game.

Not true.   The Saints finished 11-5 and the Falcons finished 13-3.   No matter what, the Saints are a Wild Card and playing their first game on the road against the Seahawks.   

Here was the seeding:

1) Atlanta Falcons  (division winner)
2) Chicago Bears  (division winner)

Both 1 and 2 had a bye week for the first week of the playoffs.

3) Philadelphia Eagles (division winner)
4) Seattle Seahawks (division winner)
5) New Orleans Saints  (11-5 wildcard)
6) Green Bay Packers (10-6 wildcard)

Even if the Saints win that Bucs game, they finish 12-4 and are STILL the #5 seed in the playoffs going to Seattle for their first playoff game.   That Bucs game in the final week of season was meaningless to the Saints playoff picture.

Actually the Falcons were playing the same time the Saints were palying us. If the Saints would of won against us and the Falcons would of loss against the Panthers the Saints would of had one of the top seeds and never faced Seahawks in the first round. In fact the Saints were playing their starters and we were winning then they took them out when the game was out of reach and the Falcons were beating the Panthers.

Man your pretty bad at this trolling thing.

[JavaRay]

Actually the Falcons were playing the same time the Saints were palying us. If the Saints would of won against us and the Falcons would of loss against the Panthers the Saints would of had one of the top seeds and never faced Seahawks in the first round. In fact the Saints were playing their starters and we were winning then they took them out when the game was out of reach and the Falcons were beating the Panthers.

The game was absolutely NOT out of reach.  The Saints were down by one TD at home only 3 and 1/2 minutes into the 4th quarter when they pulled Brees.    If you think the Saints didn't have a chance to score a TD with more than 11 minutes left in the game, you are crazy.    The problem was that Atlanta was beating the Panthers 31-3 at that time and there was NO chance the Falcons were going to lose that game.

[tatmanfish]

Saints were down by 10 at that point. Saints didnt pull within 7 until there was only 5 mins left in the 4th(FG with 6mins left in game). The next drive the Bucs got a FG and put it out of reach short of a the Saints scoring twice in 3mins as they were down by 10 again.

Nice try troll.

[BucsFTW]

As much as it pains me to admit it - Java's dead-nuts RIGHT.

Although I do disagree with his "the Saints had nothing to play for", as they obviously did.  Us fans weren't the only ones privy to the score of the Falcons/Panthers game, and of course Sean shut them down in the 4th quarter.  He should have.

The rest...  pretty much factual.  With the exception that Bill Barnwell isn't quite sure which division we're in, he's right as well - and backs up his opinion with plenty of common sense...  Just like Java did.

Many fans (homers) look at our schedule from last season, and don't realize damned near every break went our way.  I don't want to hear all of the "if's and buts" about one particular play here or there, because it would be SO EASY to spin it the other way and expose our team as overachievers - which to look at that 10-6 record any other way would be naive.

In order to surpass last years record, we'd have to have all the breaks go our way...  again.  And please...  Don't counter my argument with any of the "Yeah but, that bad call in Detroit....." crap.  It's a two-way street, and for every bad break we got - and we did, I can throw up plenty of "breaks" that went our way up that would be valid counterpoints.

Would anyone have been pissed if we had gone 7-9, or 8-8?  No.  Would we have been pleasantly pleased with our "growth/progress" at 7-9?  Of course.  We all have to admit that our beloved Bucs FAR surpassed even the most optimistic outlooks any of us had.  Period.

Four of our first five victories were by three points or fewer last season, and our Bucs were 5-1 in games decided by three points or fewer.  We were 2-5 against playoff teams, with those two victories coming in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Seahawks and Saints, so it's not only safe to say "We didn't beat a playoff team last year" - It's RIGHT.  Just like Java in this case.  Hate the guy if you want, but don't hate him for being accurate.

Couple overachievement, with the competitiveness that the NFCS definitely presents, and he's not only NOT being Debbie Downer, he's only being realistic.

Step into any Vegas betting parlor, looking to play the "over" on our season wins, and Bucs fans (PR posters) as a whole would feel as if they hit the Lotto, becuase to WIN - the Bucs only have to win 9 games this year.

________________

And Boid...  If this guy gets any further up in your dome, you might want to consider offering up a lease.  I also suggest Xanax.

[tatmanfish]

What? ^^^^

Saint and Seahawks werent playoff teams? Bucs werent up by 10 all 4th quarter save for one single drive?

Java blatantly lied about the score and times of the game....how is that factual?

Im beginning to think I will never understand your posts.

[BucsFTW]

What? ^^^^

Saint and Seahawks werent playoff teams? Bucs werent up by 10 all 4th quarter save for one single drive?

Java blatantly lied about the score and times of the game....how is that factual?

I'm beginning to think I will never understand your posts.

C'mon Tats...  I said that was where he was "off".  Read it.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as far as being "wrong" versus "blatant lying".  Did I "miss" on any of my other points?  No.

Fact is, we got really lucky last year - and many here think we were a legitimate 10-6 team.  The bigger mistake is to take that "but hey, we were a 10-6 team last year" attitude with you as we look forward to THIS season.  Getting lucky breaks last year doesn't guarantee we'll get 'em again THIS year, and truth be told, we shouldn't.

Screw the Saints game from last year.

I'm looking at the team, as a whole, and last season again, as a whole, and can fully understand why our over/under is set at 8.

As I've stated numerous times, the experts that set the over/under aren't Bucs fans...  They're MONEY fans.  And they're very rarely wrong.  They don't think like a fan.

[Beatles123]

Bold putting Java on BLAST....

[Skull and Bones]

Bold putting Java on BLAST....

I would say Java got the better of him.

[Beatles123]

While i'd say that it was more of him stopping his feeding of the troll, I'd wager this thread warranted some frustration. it's still an idiotic topic.

[Bucpride5]

NFC East and AFC North both play the NFC West this year so I guess any team in either Division shouldn't be judged by beating up on a weak division. Using your crooked logic.

I laugh when people say the Saints had nothing to play for, New Orleans had their starters in TRYING to win the game until they saw they had no chance of a higher playoff seed.

[BucsFTW]

While I'd say that it was more of him stopping his feeding of the troll, I'd wager this thread warranted some frustration. it's still an idiotic topic.

While Java's obviously not on either of our Christmas card lists, WHY is it an "idiotic topic"...?

Not only do I think this is one of the rare occasions where's actually right, I think it's a very topical topic.

[gillen033]

The Seahawks had nothing to play for? Right . . .

[Nicodemus]

I agree with some of the sentiments of that article. At the begining of the season the team struggled but still found ways to win versus the teams we SHOULD have beaten. By midway through the season the team began to believe in themselves and belief can get you a long long way. Everyone can piss and moan about how easy our schedule was but at the end of the day we can only beat the opponent we are scheduled to play on a Sunday. We may have had some luck during the season but by the end of the season most of the NFC playoff contenders blew a sigh of relief that we hadn't gotten to the playoffs, as no one was really wanting to play us.

When you consider the injuries we had at the end of the year, we were not quite as good as we could have been. Even so the next man up performed to a higher standard because the belief was there.

Now you compare the Lions and how good their team SHOULD have been last year with a much better level of talent at the begining of the season, and we can argue that the Lions under performed and lacked belief.

[MUSCLE_HAMSTER]

If the Saints win that game they get home field advantage and never lose against the Seahawks in the first post season game.

Not true.   The Saints finished 11-5 and the Falcons finished 13-3.   No matter what, the Saints are a Wild Card and playing their first game on the road against the Seahawks.   

Here was the seeding:

1) Atlanta Falcons  (division winner)
2) Chicago Bears  (division winner)

Both 1 and 2 had a bye week for the first week of the playoffs.

3) Philadelphia Eagles (division winner)
4) Seattle Seahawks (division winner)
5) New Orleans Saints  (11-5 wildcard)
6) Green Bay Packers (10-6 wildcard)

Even if the Saints win that Bucs game, they finish 12-4 and are STILL the #5 seed in the playoffs going to Seattle for their first playoff game.   That Bucs game in the final week of season was meaningless to the Saints playoff picture.

If I remember correctly, if the Saints had beaten the Bucs and the Panthers had beaten the Falcons, then NO and ATL would have the same 12-4 record, with NO owning the tiebreaker.

Obv, in the NFL anything can happen on any Sunday, so the Saints could've improved their playoff status, but it would've required ATL to lose to the Panthers (unlikely)