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yungry bucs

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: September 26, 2011, 11:49:44 PM

Might have been a given without Peyton and Company but -10 ??

Wow, load up fellas and take the Bucs money line. My personal game ball for falcons game was Mason Foster, hoping he duplicates his performance. Runner up Adrian Clayborn for first NFL sack. Also I'm paying attention to Penn/ Freeney matchup on nearly every play. Gonna be a nice matchup. 

Thoughts??

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#1 : September 26, 2011, 11:57:21 PM

Thought? My thoughts are fear. I'm worried how we'll react to being the 10 point favorites. Everyone expecting us to beat the pants off of them. Hope we don't buy into the hype and take this game lightly. Plus this is the first Monday Night game for 95% of our roster. Lots of distractions. Lots of pressure. Maybe I am being a pessimist here, but it seems like a perfect set up for a let down. Hope Rah and his staff can keep the guys focused and intense for this game.


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#2 : September 27, 2011, 12:31:03 AM

The Steelers took the Colts for granted.  The Colts were hungry; i guess we'll see how youngry the bucs are;  the bucs cannot take the Colts lightly.  It would be nice to see the Bucs display the same hungry attitude as the Colts did against the Steelers!  Maybe the D is stepping up; but the O isn't clicking on all cylinders.  I don't see how the Bucs can be favored, no.

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burger40

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#3 : September 27, 2011, 01:06:32 AM

Might have been a given without Peyton and Company but -10 ??

Wow, load up fellas and take the Bucs money line. My personal game ball for falcons game was Mason Foster, hoping he duplicates his performance. Runner up Adrian Clayborn for first NFL sack. Also I'm paying attention to Penn/ Freeney matchup on nearly every play. Gonna be a nice matchup. 

Thoughts??

Ughh I hate that line. Vegas is hoping to capitalize on the sour mood on Indy, this spread should just not be that high. Indy is still a very savvy team and unless they quit on Collins in this game there is very little value there. I do think we come out fired up for our first MNF game since '08 but even the moneyline is going to be almost worthless with that kind of a spread.

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burger40

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#4 : September 27, 2011, 01:08:13 AM

The Steelers took the Colts for granted.  The Colts were hungry; i guess we'll see how youngry the bucs are;  the bucs cannot take the Colts lightly.  It would be nice to see the Bucs display the same hungry attitude as the Colts did against the Steelers!  Maybe the D is stepping up; but the O isn't clicking on all cylinders.  I don't see how the Bucs can be favored, no.
We should be favored at home no doubt but -10 is insane. I'm thinking -7 tops.

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yungry bucs

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#5 : September 27, 2011, 01:09:09 AM

I think it will drop, gonna wait till next monday to take the wager. But I expect the Bucs to win, so I'm puttin em n a ML. Loadin up.

The Anti-Java

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#6 : September 27, 2011, 01:12:33 AM

In the USA Today on Monday the line was Bucs -7


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#7 : September 27, 2011, 01:28:51 AM

Might have been a given without Peyton and Company but -10 ??

Wow, load up fellas and take the Bucs money line. My personal game ball for falcons game was Mason Foster, hoping he duplicates his performance. Runner up Adrian Clayborn for first NFL sack. Also I'm paying attention to Penn/ Freeney matchup on nearly every play. Gonna be a nice matchup. 

Thoughts??

My thinking is that Foster and Clayborn are the definition of "balla." They are going to be good, real good, for a long long time. I agree with you though, Foster was the man last game. Somehow the playcalls got magically better and he acted like he honestly knew what he was doing. He shifted the line (literally went up and told them to move over) seconds before one sack even. Price was also his old college self, running right though linemen like he was on fire looking for water. He deserves some props as well.

-10...? YES, ten. They are without Manning, and he WAS their team. Hell, his pricetag alone says that. They are a shell of their former self without him. And basically, they might as well have Sorgi back out there, because it doesn't really matter. They aren't able to win without him, so yea, against a 2-1 team, they're getting shafted in the points bigtime.

Still, they better watch out for Wayne. He's still pretty good in his own right.

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derekmitchellmay

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#8 : September 27, 2011, 02:08:35 AM

It's funny... I am actually going to Vegas this weekend and was discussing this line with a friend (who is a 9er fan).  He asked me what I thought the spread would be (because he knows I live in the Sportsbook whenever possible) and I called -10.  He was shocked and asked if I would be taking the Bucs, and I said... "most likely".  He said, "that's a lot of points, I don't know about that one".

That statement made me feel even more confident about it.

Why?

Several reasons...but my normal recipe for picking a team with/without the spread is this:

% of Public Money (who is the public taking, because generally, they are WRONG)
Record Against The Spread
3rd Down Conversion
Time of Possession
Penalty Yardage
Turnovers

Here we go:

% of Public Money on TB/Indy: TBD... it's too early to tell
Record Against The Spread: TB 2-1, Indy 1-2
3rd Down Conversion (Offense): TB 45%, 30.8%
3rd Down Conversion (Defense): TB 34.3%, 50%
Time of Possession (Offense): TB 28:39, Indy 24.55
Time of Possession (Defense): TB 31:21, Indy: 35:05
Penalty Yardage (Offense): TB 158, Indy 102
Penalty Yardage (Defense): TB 183, Indy 117
Turnovers (Net): TB 0, Indy +2

So let's say there is a bucket for each team, and each category they win above, you drop a ball in the bucket.  Each category is worth one ball, except for the public money, that is worth three because it is such a major factor... how else do you think Vegas makes their money.  On the majority of the public NOT covering!!!

Ok, let's do the count:

5 balls for TB and 3 balls for Indy.

5-3, that's not that big of a landslide, is it?  10 points sounds like a lot to give up, with a 5-3 tally, right?  Not so fast.  Let's look a little deeper at the numbers...

Indy is DEAD last in converting 3rd downs and DEAD last when trying to get off the field on 3rd down.  Yuck.  Games are won/lost on 3rd down...ask any coach at any level.
The difference in net Time Of Possession  is over 8 minutes... that's almost a whole extra quarter of football TB is getting in comparison, that's a lot of football.
Indy is narrowly beating us in net TO's, 2 isn't a HUGE swing.  They have the edge, no denying it, but that's not blowing my skirt up.
Indy is definitely owning us is penalty yardage, no doubt about that.  However, WE are the HOME team on MNF.  We are most likely to get home calls, and less likely to be effected by crowd noise.  I am not trying to downplay the biggest edge Indy has, but come on, a home game on prime time, is a home game on prime time.

So what does all this mean?

I feel pretty good about 5-3 but I am definitely going to continue to watch the public, because if it ends up being 8 balls in the Bucs bucket vs. 3 balls in Indy's bucket, with the public leaning on a Manning-less Colts team, in our house, on our first MNF game in years... I will HAMMER that bet.

BTW, the best feeling ever is when the public is all over one team 70/30 or 80/20... and I do this exercise only to find that the team that the public is giving no respect to, is actually leading most if not all the aforementioned categories.  Buffalo, Denver and KC have been making me a lot of money over the past few years :)

Anyways, GO BUCS!!!


Bucman

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#9 : September 27, 2011, 02:35:47 AM

-10? Have they seen the Bucs offense?


GoldsonAges

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#10 : September 27, 2011, 04:32:33 AM

If you ask me 10 points is waaay too many. The Colts didn't look too bad vs. Pittsburgh. They almost won that game. I have no idea if Pitt is as bad as some people think, but I would not touch the Bucs as a 10 point favorite. What is the Bucs record ATS when they are favored the past few years? I think historically they are terrible as favorites.

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cyberdude558

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#11 : September 27, 2011, 05:20:48 AM

They are probably assuming we end up playing against an injured Collins (concussion and sore throwing shoulder) or Curtis Painter.

There are rumors that Indy may even look to sign/trade for a QB this week. With all that uncertainty, and with the Bucs able to beat the Falcons, equals a 7 point favorite, then they tack on 3 points for the home team and there's your 10 points.

Collins has been HORRIBLE so far. In the 3 starts he completed only 49% of his passes, 2 interceptions, 2 TDs, sacked 5 times, and 3 fumbles lost. That's when he was healthy. During the Cleveland game he threw 10 straight incompletions. Painter is unknown but has practically no practice time with the starters until this week, and that 4th quarter against the Steelers is the first time he's played in the regular season since 2009.

There is no way in hell Vegas would favor the Colts in this game.

yungry bucs

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#12 : September 27, 2011, 10:57:25 AM

That line is sure to move by monday, I just feel given the circumstances that we've only beaten two teams both by one possession that -7.5 sounds a little more reasonable. Hope the Bucs wax em by 20 though.

tanardtokerjackson

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#13 : September 27, 2011, 11:37:13 AM

Freeney and Mathis can EASILY win the game for the Colts just like they did against the Steelers. 

JDouble

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#14 : September 27, 2011, 11:39:46 AM

Freeney and Mathis can EASILY win the game for the Colts just like they did against the Steelers.

Not if we are pounding it up the middle with Blount from two TE sets.

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