It's funny... I am actually going to Vegas this weekend and was discussing this line with a friend (who is a 9er fan). He asked me what I thought the spread would be (because he knows I live in the Sportsbook whenever possible) and I called -10. He was shocked and asked if I would be taking the Bucs, and I said... "most likely". He said, "that's a lot of points, I don't know about that one".
That statement made me feel even more confident about it.
Why?
Several reasons...but my normal recipe for picking a team with/without the spread is this:
% of Public Money (who is the public taking, because generally, they are WRONG)Record Against The Spread
3rd Down Conversion
Time of Possession
Penalty Yardage
Turnovers
Here we go:
% of Public Money on TB/Indy: TBD... it's too early to tell
Record Against The Spread:
TB 2-1, Indy 1-2
3rd Down Conversion (Offense):
TB 45%, 30.8%
3rd Down Conversion (Defense):
TB 34.3%, 50%
Time of Possession (Offense):
TB 28:39, Indy 24.55
Time of Possession (Defense):
TB 31:21, Indy: 35:05
Penalty Yardage (Offense): TB 158,
Indy 102Penalty Yardage (Defense): TB 183,
Indy 117Turnovers (Net): TB 0,
Indy +2 So let's say there is a bucket for each team, and each category they win above, you drop a ball in the bucket. Each category is worth one ball, except for the public money, that is worth three because it is such a major factor... how else do you think Vegas makes their money. On the majority of the public NOT covering!!!
Ok, let's do the count:
5 balls for TB and 3 balls for Indy.
5-3, that's not that big of a landslide, is it? 10 points sounds like a lot to give up, with a 5-3 tally, right? Not so fast. Let's look a little deeper at the numbers...
Indy is DEAD last in converting 3rd downs and DEAD last when trying to get off the field on 3rd down. Yuck. Games are won/lost on 3rd down...ask any coach at any level.
The difference in net Time Of Possession is over 8 minutes... that's almost a whole extra quarter of football TB is getting in comparison, that's a lot of football.
Indy is narrowly beating us in net TO's, 2 isn't a HUGE swing. They have the edge, no denying it, but that's not blowing my skirt up.
Indy is definitely owning us is penalty yardage, no doubt about that. However, WE are the HOME team on MNF. We are most likely to get home calls, and less likely to be effected by crowd noise. I am not trying to downplay the biggest edge Indy has, but come on, a home game on prime time, is a home game on prime time.
So what does all this mean?
I feel pretty good about 5-3 but I am definitely going to continue to watch the public, because if it ends up being 8 balls in the Bucs bucket vs. 3 balls in Indy's bucket, with the public leaning on a Manning-less Colts team, in our house, on our first MNF game in years... I will HAMMER that bet.
BTW, the best feeling ever is when the public is all over one team 70/30 or 80/20... and I do this exercise only to find that the team that the public is giving no respect to, is actually leading most if not all the aforementioned categories. Buffalo, Denver and KC have been making me a lot of money over the past few years
Anyways, GO BUCS!!!
