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Hall of Famer
Posts : 3615
#15 : September 27, 2011, 11:44:56 AM

The Colts had a reason to "get up" for the Steelers game. Not so much the Bucs. They spent a lot last week and I expect them to be very down. Of course, as the Bucs seem to play to their opponents level, that worries me. In reality, the Bucsshould easily handle the Colts, will they is the question.


Second String

Posts : 192
#16 : September 27, 2011, 12:20:14 PM

Freeney and Mathis can EASILY win the game for the Colts just like they did against the Steelers.

Not if we are pounding it up the middle with Blount from two TE sets.

That has to be the gameplan but lets not pretend like our run game hasn't been shut out before.  We should have better success with the run game then the Steelers simply because of health - but I won't be shocked if Blount has a 15 carry 45 yard game.


Second String

Posts : 201
#17 : September 27, 2011, 01:05:09 PM

It's funny... I am actually going to Vegas this weekend and was discussing this line with a friend (who is a 9er fan).  He asked me what I thought the spread would be (because he knows I live in the Sportsbook whenever possible) and I called -10.  He was shocked and asked if I would be taking the Bucs, and I said... "most likely".  He said, "that's a lot of points, I don't know about that one".

That statement made me feel even more confident about it.


Several reasons...but my normal recipe for picking a team with/without the spread is this:

% of Public Money (who is the public taking, because generally, they are WRONG)
Record Against The Spread
3rd Down Conversion
Time of Possession
Penalty Yardage

Here we go:

% of Public Money on TB/Indy: TBD... it's too early to tell
Record Against The Spread: TB 2-1, Indy 1-2
3rd Down Conversion (Offense): TB 45%, 30.8%
3rd Down Conversion (Defense): TB 34.3%, 50%
Time of Possession (Offense): TB 28:39, Indy 24.55
Time of Possession (Defense): TB 31:21, Indy: 35:05
Penalty Yardage (Offense): TB 158, Indy 102
Penalty Yardage (Defense): TB 183, Indy 117
Turnovers (Net): TB 0, Indy +2

So let's say there is a bucket for each team, and each category they win above, you drop a ball in the bucket.  Each category is worth one ball, except for the public money, that is worth three because it is such a major factor... how else do you think Vegas makes their money.  On the majority of the public NOT covering!!!

Ok, let's do the count:

5 balls for TB and 3 balls for Indy.

5-3, that's not that big of a landslide, is it?  10 points sounds like a lot to give up, with a 5-3 tally, right?  Not so fast.  Let's look a little deeper at the numbers...

Indy is DEAD last in converting 3rd downs and DEAD last when trying to get off the field on 3rd down.  Yuck.  Games are won/lost on 3rd down...ask any coach at any level.
The difference in net Time Of Possession  is over 8 minutes... that's almost a whole extra quarter of football TB is getting in comparison, that's a lot of football.
Indy is narrowly beating us in net TO's, 2 isn't a HUGE swing.  They have the edge, no denying it, but that's not blowing my skirt up.
Indy is definitely owning us is penalty yardage, no doubt about that.  However, WE are the HOME team on MNF.  We are most likely to get home calls, and less likely to be effected by crowd noise.  I am not trying to downplay the biggest edge Indy has, but come on, a home game on prime time, is a home game on prime time.

So what does all this mean?

I feel pretty good about 5-3 but I am definitely going to continue to watch the public, because if it ends up being 8 balls in the Bucs bucket vs. 3 balls in Indy's bucket, with the public leaning on a Manning-less Colts team, in our house, on our first MNF game in years... I will HAMMER that bet.

BTW, the best feeling ever is when the public is all over one team 70/30 or 80/20... and I do this exercise only to find that the team that the public is giving no respect to, is actually leading most if not all the aforementioned categories.  Buffalo, Denver and KC have been making me a lot of money over the past few years :)

Anyways, GO BUCS!!!

Alright, I know it's early, but 65% of the public is on Indy... I am LOVING the Bucs at this point.  If it creeps up to 70% I will be cartwheeling my way down the Vegas strip.  Don't let it hit 80%... because at that point I will be poppin' bottles :)
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Pewter Report  >>  Boards  >>  The Red Board (Moderators: 3rd String Kicker, PRPatrol)  >>  Topic: Early Favorites « previous next »

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