“Football Freakonomics”: Does Firing Your Head Coach Fix Anything?

[John Galt?]

Disagree totally with this article.

1. New England fired a HC and hired Belicheck- I'd call that a pretty good move even if it cost them some draft picks.
2. Miami fired a HC and hired Shula away from the Colts- I'd call that a win
3. Pitt after decades of failure, fired their HC and hired Chuck Noll- seemed to work
4. After a decade of dominance, Dallas started to slip into mediocrity, so they fired long time coach Tom Landry and brought in Jimmy Johnson- 3 Superbowls
5. Who was the coach fired before Walsh took over?
6. How long did Green Bay stink before Holgrem was hired?
7. Dungy hired at Indy??--SB
8. Wyche fired at Tampa- multiple playoffs
9. Dungy fired at Tampa-Super Bowl
10. Who ever was fired at SF last yr
11. The guy before Sean Peyton
12. The guy before Tom Caughlin

I'd say it isn't who you FIRE but who you hire. Fire a bad coach and replace him with another bad coach and who cares. But fire a bad coach and replace him with a Noll, Belicheck, Shula, or anyone that can win a few SBs and you're set.

IOW it ain't who you fire, but who you hire to replace.

[MiltonMack21]

In the Bucs case... only if the owners actually spend money.

These really are the silliest post. It's the knee jerk reaction, Monday Morning QB, Fantasy Football world we live in where everyone's answer is to throw money at the problem instead of hire the right staff, draft well, develop those draft picks into great players, and add in a veteran free agent here and there.

I for one don't want a team full of Free Agents, but I don't want a team full of kids right out of college either the consistently good teams have a good mix. Hire competent coaches who have a knack for developing players (Bruce Arians, Pitt Offensive Coordinator) who has had a influence on Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace, and kept the Steelers offense going even without a strong running game. Don't hire a poisition coach who's never been a coordinator, this team is filled with 1st and 2nd rounder from the last 3-4 drafts. Not only the Bucs had these players rated as 1st and 2nd round talents a lot of experts and other teams did too. They don't need to throw money at the problem they need to develop the talent they have and sign a few free agents who can be productive. They don't need an Aso, or a big name free agent just impact players to show the youngsters how to be Pro's. Besides why would a big time free agent come to a team that is far from a Championship?

"Spending money" doesn't mean JUST on Free agents... that means from free agents to scouts to coaches. But as far as needing a good vet to show them how to practice, I fall back on Nickerson and Sapp/Brooks/Lynch/Abraham.

[MUSCLE_HAMSTER]

Statistics?

Factual based argument?

We'll have none of that here, thank you very much

[MUSCLE_HAMSTER]

Disagree totally with this article.

1. New England fired a HC and hired Belicheck- I'd call that a pretty good move even if it cost them some draft picks.
2. Miami fired a HC and hired Shula away from the Colts- I'd call that a win
3. Pitt after decades of failure, fired their HC and hired Chuck Noll- seemed to work
4. After a decade of dominance, Dallas started to slip into mediocrity, so they fired long time coach Tom Landry and brought in Jimmy Johnson- 3 Superbowls
5. Who was the coach fired before Walsh took over?
6. How long did Green Bay stink before Holgrem was hired?
7. Dungy hired at Indy??--SB
8. Wyche fired at Tampa- multiple playoffs
9. Dungy fired at Tampa-Super Bowl
10. Who ever was fired at SF last yr
11. The guy before Sean Peyton
12. The guy before Tom Caughlin

I'd say it isn't who you FIRE but who you hire. Fire a bad coach and replace him with another bad coach and who cares. But fire a bad coach and replace him with a Noll, Belicheck, Shula, or anyone that can win a few SBs and you're set.

IOW it ain't who you fire, but who you hire to replace.

but you have to admit..

12 examples out of how many fired coaches?

[CBWx2]

In the Bucs case... only if the owners actually spend money.

These really are the silliest post. It's the knee jerk reaction, Monday Morning QB, Fantasy Football world we live in where everyone's answer is to throw money at the problem instead of hire the right staff, draft well, develop those draft picks into great players, and add in a veteran free agent here and there.

I for one don't want a team full of Free Agents, but I don't want a team full of kids right out of college either the consistently good teams have a good mix. Hire competent coaches who have a knack for developing players (Bruce Arians, Pitt Offensive Coordinator) who has had a influence on Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace, and kept the Steelers offense going even without a strong running game. Don't hire a poisition coach who's never been a coordinator, this team is filled with 1st and 2nd rounder from the last 3-4 drafts. Not only the Bucs had these players rated as 1st and 2nd round talents a lot of experts and other teams did too. They don't need to throw money at the problem they need to develop the talent they have and sign a few free agents who can be productive. They don't need an Aso, or a big name free agent just impact players to show the youngsters how to be Pro's. Besides why would a big time free agent come to a team that is far from a Championship?

Having a high payroll doesn't guarantee that you'll win, but having a low payroll almost always guarantees that you won't. No team in the bottom 5 in total payroll has a winning record. Coincidentally (or perhaps not), no team in the top 5 in total salary has a losing record.

[The Anti-Java]

Disagree totally with this article.

1. New England fired a HC and hired Belicheck- I'd call that a pretty good move even if it cost them some draft picks.
2. Miami fired a HC and hired Shula away from the Colts- I'd call that a win
3. Pitt after decades of failure, fired their HC and hired Chuck Noll- seemed to work
4. After a decade of dominance, Dallas started to slip into mediocrity, so they fired long time coach Tom Landry and brought in Jimmy Johnson- 3 Superbowls
5. Who was the coach fired before Walsh took over?
6. How long did Green Bay stink before Holgrem was hired?
7. Dungy hired at Indy??--SB
8. Wyche fired at Tampa- multiple playoffs
9. Dungy fired at Tampa-Super Bowl
10. Who ever was fired at SF last yr
11. The guy before Sean Peyton
12. The guy before Tom Caughlin

I'd say it isn't who you FIRE but who you hire. Fire a bad coach and replace him with another bad coach and who cares. But fire a bad coach and replace him with a Noll, Belicheck, Shula, or anyone that can win a few SBs and you're set.

IOW it ain't who you fire, but who you hire to replace.

Singletary was fired for Harbaugh.  So he took the same players, added a few draft choices,  and turned them into a juggernaught.  It shows coaching is huge.

[nitey]

Disagree totally with this article.

1. New England fired a HC and hired Belicheck- I'd call that a pretty good move even if it cost them some draft picks.
2. Miami fired a HC and hired Shula away from the Colts- I'd call that a win
3. Pitt after decades of failure, fired their HC and hired Chuck Noll- seemed to work
4. After a decade of dominance, Dallas started to slip into mediocrity, so they fired long time coach Tom Landry and brought in Jimmy Johnson- 3 Superbowls
5. Who was the coach fired before Walsh took over?
6. How long did Green Bay stink before Holgrem was hired?
7. Dungy hired at Indy??--SB
8. Wyche fired at Tampa- multiple playoffs
9. Dungy fired at Tampa-Super Bowl
10. Who ever was fired at SF last yr
11. The guy before Sean Peyton
12. The guy before Tom Caughlin

I'd say it isn't who you FIRE but who you hire. Fire a bad coach and replace him with another bad coach and who cares. But fire a bad coach and replace him with a Noll, Belicheck, Shula, or anyone that can win a few SBs and you're set.

IOW it ain't who you fire, but who you hire to replace.

Yes, but not all circumstances equal. For every successful hire, there are many, many more failures. Take a look at your list, Belicheck was idiot in Cleveland. Jimmy Johnson and Walsh were successful college coaches, but Steve Spurrier, as successful as both, was a failure. Chuck Noll and Sean Payton were successful assistants, but most successful assistants are generally failures as coaches.

In order for a team to be successful, a number of things need to be in place. For years, the Bucs have had exceptional coaches, Lovie Smith, Herm Edwards, Kiffen, Joe Barry, Mike Tomlin to name a few. Dungy was a defensive coach and had a strong defensive coach in Kiffen, but failed here because he couldn't find a good offensive coach. When he went to Indy, he had Tom Moore (not to mention Payton Manning). Now he was a more balanced coach and was able to succeed. All the coaches on that list (save perhaps SF under Harbaugh) have had good to great quarterbacks and owners that were not afraid to spend money to get the best players available.

I'm not saying that firing Morris is the wrong move, but I'm not expecting miracles from the next coach either. In fact, the odds indicate that we mostly will get worse instead of better or perhaps only marginally better. But there's the rub, we don't know.

I do think Morris is still a good coach, but like others here, he was given his shot too early in his career. I really don't know who the best coach for this team is since no one side of the team is really any stronger than the other side. The only obvious thing is that the new coach needs to be good with working with young players (like Dungy) but also needs to be able to find a way to get more out of Freeman.

I happen to like Jeff Fisher, perhaps Cowher - but I also think that those names are probably unavailable to us. After that, I'm honestly not sure who may be the best. However, I AM SURE that we need to get a head coach quickly if we part ways with Morris so we can get some good coaches in rather than waiting until the end of Feburary to find our coaching staff like we did with Morris.