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YReceiver14

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« : December 31, 2011, 01:08:03 PM »

...since I am missing my math-based job while on vacation...

The percentages are based on my guess of many games' chances.  For example, I guessed that it's a 15% chance TB wins this weekend. 

Using this guy's strength of schedule (SOS) records (he's been updating that post since September):

http://footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=461224

here's the scenarios:

SECTION I: IF TB WINS (15%):

our strength of schedule should be higher than any possible competing 5-win team...

Pick 6th: IF WAS and MIA both win (1.2%)
Pick 7th: IF WAS or MIA wins, not both (6.6%)
Pick 8th: IF WAS and MIA both lose (7.2%)

Schedule: WAS vs PHI (20-80) and MIA vs NYJ (40-60)

Caveat:  This could be changed IF a crazy situation happens where a 4-win team wins AND catches up in strength of schedule. 

But, with so many division games in WK17, most of the teams they've faced are facing other members of their schedule, so this is highly improbable and possibly impossible (lol).  For example, CLE's SOS record (127) will go up by a maximum of 8 and a minimum of 4, and they need to gain 5 games on TB.  TB's SOS record goes up by a maximum of 10 and a minimum of 6.  So, w/CLE+8 and TB+6, they still don't catch TB in SOS.  However, I'm too lazy to do the rest, and I may actually suck at math, so I guess something unforeseen could happen.


SECTION II: IF TB LOSES (85%):

Pick 6th: IF MIN and JAC and CLE all lose (9.18%)
Pick 5th: IF MIN loses and either JAC or CLE wins (27.54%)
Pick 4th: IF MIN loses and JAC and CLE wins (14.28%)
IF MIN WINS: hell breaks loose...
-Pick 6th or 5th: JAC and CLE both lose (6.12%)
-Pick 5th or 4th: either JAC or CLE wins (18.36%)
-Pick 4th or 3rd: both JAC and CLE win (9.52%)

Schedule: MIN vs CHI (40-60), JAC vs IND (70-30), CLE vs PIT (40-60)

If MIN wins (with TB losing), it comes down to a very close SOS:

TB current SOS record: 132

w/TB losing:

DET/GB: +1
MIN/CHI: +1
ATL: +2 (TB losing)
IND/JAC: +1
SF vs STL (out of sched): +0 or +1
NO/CAR: +2
HOU/TEN: +1
DAL vs NYG (out of sched): +0 or +1

SOS range: +8 to +10 (140 to 142)

MIN current SOS record: 134

w/MIN winning:

SD/OAK: +1
TB: +0 (TB losing)
DET/GB: +2
Kc/DEN: +1
ARI vs SEA (out of sched): +0 or +1
CHI: +0 (MIN winning)
NO/CAR: +1
ATL: +1 (TB losing)
WAS vs PHI (out of sched): +0 or +1

SOS range: +6 to +8 (140 to 142)

Using SF vs STL (90-10), DAL vs NYG (45-55) // ARI vs SEA (45-55), WAS vs PHI (40-60):
(percentages are out of 100% chance that MIN wins.....a "higher" pick is closer to #1)

SF      DAL      ARI      WAS     7.29%   TB+2 MIN+2      TIE
                                      PHI      10.94% TB+2 MIN+1      TB LOWER PICK
SF      DAL      SEA      WAS    8.91%   TB+2 MIN+1      TB LOWER PICK
                                      PHI      13.36% TB+2 MIN+0      TB LOWER PICK
SF      NYG      ARI      WAS     8.91%   TB+1 MIN+2      TB HIGHER PICK
                                      PHI       13.36% TB+1 MIN+1      TIE
SF      NYG     SEA      WAS     10.89% TB+1 MIN+1      TIE
                                      PHI       16.34% TB+1 MIN+0     TB LOWER PICK
STL     DAL      ARI      WAS     0.81%   TB+1 MIN+2      TB HIGHER PICK
                                      PHI        1.22%   TB+1 MIN+1      TIE
STL     DAL      SEA      WAS     0.99%   TB+1 MIN+1     TIE
                                      PHI         1.49%  TB+1 MIN+0      TB LOWER PICK
STL     NYG      ARI      WAS      0.99% TB+0 MIN+2      TB HIGHER PICK
                                      PHI        1.46%  TB+0 MIN+1      TB HIGHER PICK
STL     NYG     SEA      WAS    1.21%   TB+0 MIN+1      TB HIGHER PICK
                                      PHI        1.85%  TB+0 MIN+0       TIE


Breakdown:
TB higher pick: 13.38%
TB lower pick: 51.04%
TIE: 35.6% (coin flipping time)

SECTION III: TOTAL PROBABILITY:

NOT SPLITTING COIN-FLIP PROBABILITY:

3rd pick:               1.3%
3-4 coin flip:        3.4%
4th pick:             21.6%
4-5 coin flip:        6.5%
5th pick:             37.7%
5-6 coin flip:         2.2%
6th pick:             13.5%
7th pick:               6.6%
8th pick:                7.2%

FACTORING IN 50-50 COIN-FLIP PROBABILITY:

3rd pick:              3.0%
4th pick:            26.6%
5th pick:            42.1%
6th pick:            14.6%
7th pick:              6.6%
8th pick:              7.2%



So......probably 5th pick, with a good chance for the 4th pick.  There's still hope that we get the 3rd pick, but there's a much higher chance we win and slide down to 7th or 8th.


“Before you can be labeled elite, you’ve got to get a lot closer to having rings.”  --Josh Freeman, May 2012

GMC 93

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« #1 : December 31, 2011, 01:39:33 PM »

We'll either be picking 4th or 5th. I say 4th, with both Minny and Jacksonville getting wins tomorrow.


Formerly known as Revis Islander

Morgan

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« #2 : December 31, 2011, 01:59:48 PM »

DEFINITIVE: TB draft scenarios for Week 17

Awesome...but enjoy your vacation already....

YReceiver14

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« #3 : December 31, 2011, 02:18:32 PM »

Lol, I really should...


“Before you can be labeled elite, you’ve got to get a lot closer to having rings.”  --Josh Freeman, May 2012

leeroybuc93

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« #4 : December 31, 2011, 03:15:40 PM »

Wow. Greatest post ever? It certainly required the most work at least.

Biggs3535

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« #5 : January 01, 2012, 04:08:18 PM »

SECTION I: IF TB WINS (15%):

Pick 7th: IF WAS or MIA wins, not both (6.6%)



SECTION II: IF TB LOSES (85%):

Pick 5th: IF MIN loses and either JAC or CLE wins (27.54%)
Pick 4th: IF MIN loses and JAC and CLE wins (14.28%)

Depending on Buc win or loss, these appear to be the two scenarios they are looking at.

Come on, Seneca Wallace...


YReceiver14

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« #6 : January 01, 2012, 04:22:53 PM »

Vikings had a chance and they blew it.

Every year, when I'm rooting for other teams to win and improve our draft position...you realize, they're 'competing' with us for a reason.


“Before you can be labeled elite, you’ve got to get a lot closer to having rings.”  --Josh Freeman, May 2012

traew01

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« #7 : January 01, 2012, 04:32:17 PM »

SECTION I: IF TB WINS (15%):

Pick 7th: IF WAS or MIA wins, not both (6.6%)



SECTION II: IF TB LOSES (85%):

Pick 5th: IF MIN loses and either JAC or CLE wins (27.54%)
Pick 4th: IF MIN loses and JAC and CLE wins (14.28%)



Depending on Buc win or loss, these appear to be the two scenarios they are looking at.

Come on, Seneca Wallace...

A Bucs win would be a disaster. The difference between 7th and 5th in this draft is MASSIVE.

Somehow I'm not too worried though.

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