Grading the Free Agents Deals

Free Agency 2012: The Deal Grader!

March 15th, 2012 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
ProFootballFocus

There’s an awful lot of NFL players getting an awful lot of money right now.

That’s good for them, but what about the teams handing it over? Have they found themselves a shrewd deal? Have they let their desperation get the better of them? Has their scouting department just got it horribly wrong?

In addition to our live reaction blog that is kicking all sorts of backside right now, we’re going to issue feedback on all the deals with a pretty simple objective in mind; letting you know which teams got the best deals using our own grading methodology.

Let’s do this.

+2.0: You just signed Peyton Manning!

Manning remains un-signed, and no other deal comes close to this level yet.

+1.5: That’s just great value!

Mario Williams to BUF: What a huge move for Buffalo. They went old school and didn’t let Williams visit anywhere until he signed on the dotted line. Putting him on a line with Marcell Dareus and our top ranked DT from 2010, Kyle Williams, is almost unfair.

Martellus Bennett to NYG: Bennett has graded as a top five blocking tight end the past three years, while having opportunities limited as the number two TE in a Dallas offense with plenty of receiving options. This move comes with little risk and a lot of reward.

Sione Pouha to NYJ: You pick up maybe the best nose tackle on the market for $5m a year? Pouha may be 33 but his limited snaps earlier in his career means you don’t worry so much about him slowing down. Our top ranked DT in 2011.

+1.0: That move could work out very nicely!

Juqua Parker to CLE: Parker may not play a full set of snaps, but he’s proven over the past two years that he can handle a decent amount of work and still produce. Even though he found opportunities limited in Philadelphia, he still responded with 22 combined sacks, hits and pressures on 138 pass rushes.

Jeremy Mincey to JAX: With the Bears being interested you figured the price could really fly up for Mincey, but he returns on a reasonable deal for $27m over four years. Our 12th ranked DE in 2011, Mincey has always done well when given an opportunity to get on the field.

Cory Redding to IND: Great to see the Colts making moves, and this one makes a lot of sense. Redding excelled in Chuck Pagano’s hybrid defense and should ease the transition in Indy.

Marques Colston to NO: Considering the money the other receivers got, the Saints must be happy they acted just before the start of free agency. A perfect fit in NO, Colston has the 10th highest receiving grade of all wideouts over the past three years.

Jared Gaither to SD: It was imperative for the Chargers to re-sign Gaither who makes a big difference to Philip Rivers’ ability to go deep. A true frachise left tackle even if there are some red flags regarding past behavior and durability.

Robert Meachem to SD: Limited because of the nature of the Saints offense, Meachem never really had a chance to be a number one guy in New Orleans. Makes up, to a degree, for the loss of Vincent Jackson.

Peyton Hillis to KC: A low risk deal for the Chiefs, Hillis can act as a complement to Jamaal Charles or fill in if he’s not healthy. Excellent in all three phases, he’s not without his issues but did finish second in our combined 2010 RB rankings.

+0.5: Common sense shines through

Steve Hutchinson to TEN: It will be interesting to see what it means for the rest of the line, but Hutchinson is a better run blocker than anything they had last year. For that alone we like this move.

Ben Grubbs to NO: The Saints picked up a pretty decent consolation prize in the shape of Grubbs after losing Carl Nicks. He doesn’t have the talent of Nicks, but he’s been a consistent performer at left guard for the Ravens these past three years and comes $2m per year cheaper.

Chad Henne to JAX: We haven’t seen as bad a quarterback as we did with Blaine Gabbert in 2011. So now the Jags have a viable option behind him that can step it if he doesn’t take a huge leap forward.

Kyle Orton to DAL: The Cowboys have been hurt in recent years by injuries to Romo affecting his performance and ability to stay on the field.

Reggie Wayne to IND: Wayne may have lost a step, but our 6th ranked receiver over the past three years has a lot to offer a potential new starting QB. Always where he should be and rarely drops balls.

Desean Jackson to PHI: A move that carries little risk the way it’s structured, Jackson is one of the premier game changers in the NFL. We don’t like his consistency, but you can’t deny the impact he has on defenses.

Nick Hardwick to SD: Not one of the more dominant centers in the league, Hardwick is still solid technically and doesn’t let much pressure up the gut. Another in a series of move to make life easier for Philip Rivers.

Carlos Rogers to SF: It’s a bit pricey given how Rogers hasn’t always been the most consistent cornerback in the league, but the 49ers now return their entire starting defense from 2011. That’s tremendous work when you consider they were our top ranked unit by some distance.

Cortland Finnegan to STL: The money is a little rich, but at the same time Finnegan is a true number one cornerback who can track receivers, play in the slot and come up and help in run support. Now let’s just hope he can control his ‘fesity-ness’ as well as he did in 2011.

Vincent Jackson to TB: Jackson may be walking a disciplinary tight rope, but is one of the leagues most dominant deep threats. He automatically gives Josh Freeman the consistent down field target he’s needed to raise his game.

Jason Campbell to CHI: Given how the Bears line has played over the past few years, it doesn’t hurt to have a backup who can play to a decent level. Campbell was our 15th ranked QB in 2011.

Eric Weems to CHI: A move that allows Devin Hester to focus on punt returns and playing receiver, while making up for the loss of Corey Graham. Weems was a top five ranked returner over the past three years.

Tim Jennings to CHI: The perfect type of corner for the Bears cover two defense, Jennings was one of only two cornerbacks who didn’t give up a touchdown the entire year.

Perrish Cox to SF: The rich keep getting richer. Cox had his problems off the field, but he was actually pretty impressive in his rookie year on the field. 49ers have plenty of depth at cornerback but you can never have too much, so this move represents all upside.

0.0: Indifference

Carl Nicks to TB: Not a reflection on Nicks’ talent (he was our second ranked guard on the year), but making him the highest paid guard when you’ve already got $7.5m per annum invested in another guard? The move seems unnecessary; you just don’t need to spend that much money on an offensive line. Nicks ability saves the move.

Brandon Carr to DAL: Carr is a good cornerback, but the Cowboys have spent an awful lot of money on potential as opposed to production. He is an upgrade for their secondary, but one that may struggle to live up to the price tag.

Dwight Lowery to JAX: A solid safety, the move makes sense for the Jaguars but is a little on the pricey side given the relative lack of upside he possesses. Our 35th ranked safety on the year, he at least offers stability at a spot that has been extremely problematic for Jacksonville.

Jonathan Fanene to NE: A Patriots type of player, Fanene can play all along the line and so has the requisite versatility New England seems to covet. It’s hard to imagine him making a big impression, but there’s little risk attached.

Red Bryant to SEA: We love what Bryant brings to the table as a run stuffing defensive end who allows the Seahawks to play something of a hybrid. We just don’t love giving a guy who is at most a two down player that amount of money. Otherwise it would be a lot higher.

Richard Marshall to MIA: Verging on negative, Marshall brings with him an ability to play every spot in the secondary as he has done over the past year in Arizona. Needs to show more consistency.

Paul Soliai to MIA: Soliai is a big time talent at nose tackle, but for him to justify $6m per year he needs to start seeing more of the field. We looked at this issue earlier in the week.

-0.5: Did you really need to make that move?

Jarret Johnson to SD: There isn’t a linebacker in the league who sets the edge as well as Johnson. But the Chargers didn’t need a guy to do that, they needed an outside linebacker who could get to the passer. Johnson is not the guy and struggled so much to get pressure the Ravens got him off the field in obvious passing situations. Great player, but this one doesn’t match up.

Frostee Rucker to CLE: Rucker is the kind of two down defensive end the Browns didn’t need. They needed (and still need) more pass rush from their base defensive look. Rucker isn’t that guy.

Terrell Thomas to NYG: The deal is back loaded so the Giants appear to have an exit strategy. Nonetheless we’re just not sure that coming off a second ACL injury, and after a poor 2010, Thomas has what it takes to improve the Giants secondary.

Josh Morgan to WAS: There is some upside to Morgan who makes a lot happen after the catch. But he falls into that projection category of receiver, so is something of an expensive risk.

-1.0: That’s an awful lot of money you’ve just gambled away

Laurent Robinson to JAX: People forget that Robinson actually played more in St Louis in 2010, than he did in Dallas in 2011 when he was a starter in their offense. How did that work out? Robinson has talent, but it’s only really come through when he played in a Cowboy offense loaded with receiving options. The move would have been better with less guaranteed money.

Adam Carriker to WAS: A lot of money for an average starter who struggled to make much of an impact last year. Hard to see him holding onto a starting job for long if Jarvis Jenkins is as good as advertised.

Pierre Garcon to WAS: Garcon is a physical receiver who can make a lot happen after the catch, and does offer upside. But he’s a little bit streaky and not the kind of versatile option that should get paid more than Marques Colston.

-1.5: I don’t care how much you’ve spent, that guy just isn’t very good

Eric Wright to TB: Wright earned every bit of his -14.1 grade in Detroit, so how he turned that into such a massive deal a year after he was forced into a ‘prove it deal’ is quite incredible. He does have talent, but he also has the ability to give up an awful lot of plays. This could go very badly.

Adam Snyder to ARZ: Among Snyders’ strengths is his ability to play multiple positions. The problem is what good is that when you’re equally bad at all of them? Has always struggled when he found his way onto the field in San Francisco.

John Carlson to MIN: He may be a good athlete, but Carlson is a poor blocker and has failed to make a consistent impact as a receiver. The Seahawks brought in Zach Miller to replace him for a reason. A truly baffling move.

-2.0: You’re bringing Brett Favre back?

Nobody has yet made a move that qualifies as Favreian.

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