Can people stop saying there are high Bust rate for first round Running backs?

[rgator13]

Everyone is saying the value is at corner...its a safer pick yada yada yada

list of first round backs since 2005
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brwon
Chris Wells
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart
Felix Jones
Rashard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch-Bust
Reggie Bush-Bust
Laurence Maroney
Denaglo Williams
Joseph Addai
Ronnie Brown
Carnell Williams-Bust

3/20 or 15% of the backs drafted since 2005 have been busts(people can argue Ronnie Brown but I dont consider a 800/year average back a bust)

now look at Corners since 2005

Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara-potential bust
Jimmy Smith
Joe Haden
Kareem Jackson
Devin McCourty
Kyle Wilson
Malcom Jenkins
Vontae Davis
Leodis McKelvin
DRC
Aqib Talib
Mike Jenkins
Antoine Cason
Darelle Revis
Leon Hall- Bust
Aaron Ross
Tye Hill-Bust
Jason Allen
Antonio Cromartie
Jonathan Joseph
Kelly Jennings-Bust
Adam Pac Man Jones- Bust
Antrel Rolle-Bust
Carlos Rogers
Fabian Washington-Bust
Marlin Jackson


7/27 or 25% of the corners drafted since 2005 have been busts

People can make the assumptions that running backs dont last as long...ill give you that...but by the numbers there have been more corners that have been busts than Running backs drafted in the recent 7 years

[Booker Reese]

Who is saying it's a safer pick? It's all about value and the importance of the position. Ask any coach/GM what the four most important positions are and they'll tell you QB, LT, Pass-Rusher, and CB.

I like how Prince Amukamara is a "potential bust" because he broke his foot, but Ingram basically running as a 3rd-4th stringer doesn't seem to trouble you.

[3rd String Kicker]

I have trouble with this. Bust is such a loosely used term. Would you be happy spending #5 overall for a back that averages about 800 yards a year? Personally, by my standard, that would be a bust. I want my 1st rounder to make an impact. With that said, I would probably dock your list and say at least half of those backs are in fact busts (no 1,000 yard seasons, injuries, etc.)

Regardless of this, I am still game if we draft Richardson.

[danimal09]

To answer the title, yes people can, when it stops being true.

[BucBalla85]

Its not so much the bust rate as it is that you can find backs with similar production in later rounds.

[BucNY]

Biased opinions of busts, most of which are high arguable. You want Richardson, don't try and fabricate your reasoning. You like him cuz he's got big arms and can hammer curl a 40lb dumbbell. That's all you need to say.

Don't need Richardson as much as we need other people. That remains my opinion.

Blount averaged 4.2 behind a line that NO ONE would say was even average last year.

[MUSCLE_HAMSTER]

TR won't bust.

He's a beast.

[CBWx2]

I have trouble with this. Bust is such a loosely used term. Would you be happy spending #5 overall for a back that averages about 800 yards a year? Personally, by my standard, that would be a bust. I want my 1st rounder to make an impact. With that said, I would probably dock your list and say at least half of those backs are in fact busts (no 1,000 yard seasons, injuries, etc.)

Exactly right. You are being a bit too lenient in how you are assessing the RB's, and that is inflating your non-bust rate. On the flip side, you are way too liberal with your bust labeling of corners. Leon Hall and Antrell Rolle aren't busts. Hall is one of the best corners in the league, and Rolle is one of the best safety's in the league.

[acacius]

I really haven't seem many, if any suggestions that cornerback would be the safer pick.  The anti-TR argument has tended to be that first round running backs are a poor value, pretty much regardless of how good they are.

[TBTrojan]

I'm sorry but I looked at your busts and who wasn't and couldn't stop laughing long enough to see the point you were trying to make.
Marshawn Lynch is a bust after a bunch of 1000 yard seasons including last year when he had 1200 yards and 12 TDs BUT Laurence Maroney isn't a bust?
Leon Hall is a bust?

[BucBalla85]

I dont think Richardson will bust. I actually think this year has a bunch of RBs who could have great years in the NFL imo.

[3rd String Kicker]

I dont think Richardson will bust. I actually think this year has a bunch of RBs who could have great years in the NFL imo.

+1  Really good class for backs in my opinion.

[champkind]

First of all, your whole argument is wrong, because you won't see many people saying "don't draft a running back because they have a high bust rate." The claim is that it is poor positional value, and not worth the pick. But even if your argument was the correct one, your labeling of busts is AWFUL. The guys are all busts, plain and simple, while a few of the ones you call busts are debatable at best.

Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brwon
Felix Jones
Laurence Maroney

[champkind]

I'm sorry but I looked at your busts and who wasn;t and couldn;t stop laughing long enough to see the point you were trying to make.
Marshawn Lynch is a bust after a bnch of 1000 yard seasons including last year when he had 1200 yards and 12 TDs BUT Laurence Maroney isn't a bust?
Leon Hall is a bust?

Holy crap, I didn't even get past the RB list because it was so awful. This is the worst!!!

[CBWx2]

Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller - Bust so far
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno - Bust
Donald Brown - Bust so far
Chris Wells
Darren McFadden - Injury bust
Jonathan Stewart
Felix Jones
Rashard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Bush - Bust until 2011
Laurence Maroney - Bust
Denaglo Williams
Joseph Addai
Ronnie Brown - Bust
Carnell Williams - Bust

Corners since 2005

Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Jimmy Smith
Joe Haden
Kareem Jackson
Devin McCourty
Kyle Wilson
Malcom Jenkins
Vontae Davis
Leodis McKelvin
DRC
Aqib Talib
Mike Jenkins
Antoine Cason
Darelle Revis
Leon Hall
Aaron Ross
Tye Hill - Bust
Jason Allen
Antonio Cromartie
Jonathan Joseph
Kelly Jennings - Bust
Adam Pac Man Jones - Bust
Antrel Rolle
Carlos Rogers
Fabian Washington - Bust
Marlin Jackson - Bust

That's a bit more accurate.