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MasterC25

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#15 : March 21, 2012, 02:52:27 PM

Screw percentages Just draft TRENT RICHARDSON because he is the BEST player in the Draft after Luck and RGIII.

TBayXXXVII

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#16 : March 21, 2012, 02:52:30 PM

list of first round backs since 2005
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best - Bust
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brwon - Bust
Chris Wells - Bust
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart  - Bust
Felix Jones  - Bust
Rashard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch-Bust
Reggie Bush-Bust
Laurence Maroney  - Bust
Denaglo Williams
Joseph Addai  - Bust
Ronnie Brown  - Bust
Carnell Williams-Bust

3/20 or 15% of the backs drafted since 2005 have been busts(people can argue Ronnie Brown but I dont consider a 800/year average back a bust)
I have 8 more to add... so I have 11/20... or 55% that bust.  If you are easily replaced, you're a bust.

BucBalla85

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#17 : March 21, 2012, 02:54:08 PM

list of first round backs since 2005
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best - Bust
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brwon - Bust
Chris Wells - Bust
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart  - Bust
Felix Jones  - Bust
Rashard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch-Bust
Reggie Bush-Bust
Laurence Maroney  - Bust
Denaglo Williams
Joseph Addai  - Bust
Ronnie Brown  - Bust
Carnell Williams-Bust

3/20 or 15% of the backs drafted since 2005 have been busts(people can argue Ronnie Brown but I dont consider a 800/year average back a bust)
I have 8 more to add... so I have 11/20... or 55% that bust.  If you are easily replaced, you're a bust.

Its funny, Id take just about everybody on that list to back up Blount. Except Caddy.

acacius

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#18 : March 21, 2012, 02:55:09 PM

And yeah.  Your evaluations of who is and who is not a bust are all sorts of screwy.  And it's not just you being too generous trying to support your own argument.  Lynch wasn't really a bust, and Bush was only a bust when compared to the epic expectations that were put on him.  He didn't change the way the game was played, but he was still a pretty useful player.  That said, there are also a lot of guys on that runnin back list who deserve to at least have the "potential bust" label that you tagged Amukamara with.

TBayXXXVII

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#19 : March 21, 2012, 02:55:43 PM

list of first round backs since 2005
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best - Bust
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brwon - Bust
Chris Wells - Bust
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart  - Bust
Felix Jones  - Bust
Rashard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch-Bust
Reggie Bush-Bust
Laurence Maroney  - Bust
Denaglo Williams
Joseph Addai  - Bust
Ronnie Brown  - Bust
Carnell Williams-Bust

3/20 or 15% of the backs drafted since 2005 have been busts(people can argue Ronnie Brown but I dont consider a 800/year average back a bust)
I have 8 more to add... so I have 11/20... or 55% that bust.  If you are easily replaced, you're a bust.

Its funny, Id take just about everybody on that list to back up Blount. Except Caddy.

I'd take all the one's not labeled a bust.  I don't think those guys are really all that.

CBWx2

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#20 : March 21, 2012, 02:56:22 PM

I don't think being replaceable makes a RB a bust, but it does show why you shouldn't draft that position early. Good backs get found in later rounds almost every year. That's just the simple fact.


TBayXXXVII

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#21 : March 21, 2012, 02:58:46 PM

I don't think being replaceable makes a RB a bust, but it does show why you shouldn't draft that position early. Good backs get found in later rounds almost every year. That's just the simple fact.

I agree.  But those guys were or are being "easily" replaced... by non-first round RB's.

champkind

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#22 : March 21, 2012, 03:02:37 PM

I don't think being replaceable makes a RB a bust, but it does show why you shouldn't draft that position early. Good backs get found in later rounds almost every year. That's just the simple fact.

Good players at all positions get found in later rounds every year. That's just the simple fact. RB's are just a more visible, so everyone perpetuates the myth that this is the reason it is not good positional value. The reason that it is not good positional value is due to the shelf life of RB's.

TBayXXXVII

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#23 : March 21, 2012, 03:05:26 PM

I don't think being replaceable makes a RB a bust, but it does show why you shouldn't draft that position early. Good backs get found in later rounds almost every year. That's just the simple fact.

Good players at all positions get found in later rounds every year. That's just the simple fact. RB's are just a more visible, so everyone perpetuates the myth that this is the reason it is not good positional value. The reason that it is not good positional value is due to the shelf life of RB's.

Don't forget importance.  You can have an elite RB and miss the playoffs (Peterson, Johnson, McCoy, MJD), you'll be hard pressed to find a "really good" QB miss the playoffs.

3rd String Kicker

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#24 : March 21, 2012, 03:06:53 PM

Quote from: TBayXXXVII
You'll be hard pressed to find a "really good" QB miss the playoffs.

Mark seems to have found one.  ;)

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#25 : March 21, 2012, 03:46:02 PM

I'd love to have a bust like JStew on this team


TBayXXXVII

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#26 : March 21, 2012, 03:53:24 PM

Quote from: TBayXXXVII
You'll be hard pressed to find a "really good" QB miss the playoffs.

Mark seems to have found one.  ;)

Nice!   :D

chops

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#27 : March 21, 2012, 05:25:24 PM

I think most people are not opposed to taking a running back later in the first round, the argument is that when you are picking in the top 10 there is better value elsewhere. Here is every running back since 2005 who has been drafted in the top 10.

C. J. Spiller-9th-Total bust as of so far.
Darren McFadden-4th-Had a good season last year but cannot stay healthy. Has not lived up to his draft position.
Adrian Peterson-7th-Elite back, great pick.
Reggie Bush-2nd-No longer with original team, showed some flash last season but has not lived up to his draft position and is the only player chosen in the top six of that draft to not be voted to the Pro Bowl.
Ronnie Brown-2nd-No longer with original team, had a few good seasons in Miami but did not live up to his draft position. Is now a backup.
Cedric Benson-4th-No longer with original team, has been successful in Cincinnati but is just an overall average player. 
Carnell Williams-5th No longer with original team, had a nice rookie season but injuries have turned him into a career backup.

1/6 turned out to be a good pick. 17%

gone

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#28 : March 21, 2012, 05:45:57 PM

RB absolutely busts more than CBs.  It's hard to take the OP's argument seriously with such an arbitrary and often bizarre declaration of who is a bust and who isn't.  And if you consider an 800 yard a season back picked in round one not a bust, then I would expect you don't have anything resembling the same definition of bust as the rest of us.  I would also submit there is a lot more "reaching" on CBs in the first as you need to have at least two of them on the field at all times, often more, and they need to be good--with RB it's a HB and FB and people don't invest high picks in FB. 

All that aside, it is still more important, as others are pointing out, that the shelf life is a bigger issue as well as positional importance.  RBs don't carry a team any longer, the rules have change enough to make that line of thought obsolete.  And with a very short shelf life as "the man" they just aren't worth it.

And to top that all off, if you are in a position to grab the best one in the draft, that top five talent, that usually means you have significant holes and rebuilding to do.  So by the time you patch those and build something that can contend, your back is on the (usually rapid) decline of his career.  A good back is a capstone, not a cornerstone.

SpeedInSpaceBucs!

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#29 : March 21, 2012, 06:12:16 PM

I saw Marshawn Lynch labeled as a bust and couldn't stop laughing...
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