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GameTime

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#15 : May 30, 2012, 10:32:05 AM

While the money is now less of an issue, the opportunity cost is still there. After the Bucs took Barron at #7, the next safety went at #29 and after that #48. By the time the third safety was picked, nine offensive linemen and seven wide receivers had been picked. By picking a safety that high, the Bucs missed the opportunity for much higher ranked players at other positions later. For that reason, it's not ok for Barron to just be above average. He needs to be really, really good to justify passing on depth at other positions.

i sometimes wonder about this train of thought, and maybe im not understanding you completely.  is the 10th best OL a better player than the 3rd S?  i dont understand how the Bucs missed the opportunity for much higher ranked players at other positions?  Barron needs to be above average because he was the #7th overall pick.  and for a team to be great they need to hit on their top picks.

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#16 : May 30, 2012, 10:40:47 AM

....and the knock on Barron is that while he is great vs. the run, a great tackler, and excels at man coverage vs tight ends....he doesn't have the speed or acceleration to play center field. I don't know if this is true, but that is what all the scouting reports say. If this is the case and he does lack that versatility, it will be hard for him to ever live up to being the 7th overall pick as a true Strong Safety in a passing league.

It also makes me wonder how this season will play out, because it seems that Barron, Grimm, and Barber all fit the strong safety role and we don't really have a free safety to play deep center field. We could end up being very susceptible to deep throws. Maybe Asante or Black will step up...but they both seem more like strong safeties as well. It would be awesome if Devin Holland and his 4.35 speed would blossom and dominate camp/preseason. Love to see him rise up and earn the FS spot. Total unlikely dark horse, but it would be great.


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#17 : May 30, 2012, 10:45:58 AM

While the money is now less of an issue, the opportunity cost is still there. After the Bucs took Barron at #7, the next safety went at #29 and after that #48. By the time the third safety was picked, nine offensive linemen and seven wide receivers had been picked. By picking a safety that high, the Bucs missed the opportunity for much higher ranked players at other positions later. For that reason, it's not ok for Barron to just be above average. He needs to be really, really good to justify passing on depth at other positions.

i sometimes wonder about this train of thought, and maybe im not understanding you completely.  is the 10th best OL a better player than the 3rd S?  i dont understand how the Bucs missed the opportunity for much higher ranked players at other positions?  Barron needs to be above average because he was the #7th overall pick.  and for a team to be great they need to hit on their top picks.
The line of thinking is that if you're going to pick a premium position, you need to do it earlier because so many of them get picked so highly, by the time you're into the 2nd or 3rd rounds, you're left with almost all garbage yet you still have reasonably well regarded players at non-premium positions. So if you're going to maximize your picks, you target premium positions early and then non-premium positions later. That's why when you pick a non-premium position early, he needs to be really, really good. Average players at non-premium positions are meaningless and much less valuable than average players at premium positions.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#18 : May 30, 2012, 10:50:10 AM

Exactly FRG. This is why you can always find good running backs and safeties in the middle rounds. You can take a guy at these positions in the 4th round and still get a top 5 guy....where as if you take a CB or OT in the 4th you are likely not getting a guy in the top 10 at his position. The CBA has change the top of the draft and what risks teams are willing to take, but it hasn't change the value of each position.

All that said, with the league moving so strongly towards the passing game...safeties might find their value rising.


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#19 : May 30, 2012, 10:53:23 AM

I understand the logic behind the opportunity cost argument (and note - there is always an opportunity cost once a selection is made - for the Bucs, it was every player prior to their next pick and any safety they decided not to pick since they had Barron)., But, as GT notes, that calculus assumes a lot about the quality of players that may or may not be true in any given draft.

I like to keep it simple - if you are picking in the top 10, the guy needs to be a high impact player, especially if you are going away from the big 4 (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT).


GameTime

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#20 : May 30, 2012, 10:59:25 AM

The line of thinking is that if you're going to pick a premium position, you need to do it earlier because so many of them get picked so highly, by the time you're into the 2nd or 3rd rounds, you're left with almost all garbage yet you still have reasonably well regarded players at non-premium positions. So if you're going to maximize your picks, you target premium positions early and then non-premium positions later. That's why when you pick a non-premium position early, he needs to be really, really good. Average players at non-premium positions are meaningless and much less valuable than average players at premium positions.

gotcha, i certainly understand the premium position argument.  and as you said, the guy better be better than good.  but i also believe any position can be a premium one if the player is good enough.  ed reed/polamalu both certainly make the case for the S position.  our own derrick brooks at OLB.  we all know about LT, CB, QB, and DE.  WR's and TE's in todays NFL can be considered premium i think.

grab the best players and develop a defense (offense)  around them.  and this year was a prime example...CB was staring us in the face but our scouting dept didnt like it.  we'll see how it turns out.

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#21 : May 30, 2012, 11:10:42 AM

A big concern is what happens if you miss. Let's say with the #7 overall pick you eventually end up with a player who would be considered the #10 player at his position over a given time. Using PFF, here's a couple different positions and players:

QB: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe
OT: Marcus McNeil (in his prime), Bryant McKinnie (in his prime)
DE: Jason Babin, Robert Mathis
CB: Nate Clements, Brandon Carr
S: Roman Harper, Bernard Pollard

If you have your choice of all of these players with the #7 overall pick, you're picking the two safeties last every time.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#22 : May 30, 2012, 11:22:48 AM

I understand the logic behind the opportunity cost argument (and note - there is always an opportunity cost once a selection is made - for the Bucs, it was every player prior to their next pick and any safety they decided not to pick since they had Barron)., But, as GT notes, that calculus assumes a lot about the quality of players that may or may not be true in any given draft.

I like to keep it simple - if you are picking in the top 10, the guy needs to be a high impact player, especially if you are going away from the big 4 (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT).

Right and it remains to be seen whether he is a "high impact player, but that discussion highlights another potential  flaw in the "opportunity cost" argument logic.  The premise of that argument, at least as I read it is:  safety is a non-premium position.  That may generally be true, but that does not appear to be the case in this defense, at least from what I read.  If not Barron then they take Kuechly at the same spot or higher even though conventional wisdom says the position is not worth the high pick.  I think the conventional wisdow is just that, nothing more.

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#23 : May 30, 2012, 11:32:21 AM

Safety is a bit tough to say it is or isn't a premium position because it's not a dime a dozen position like RB's or OG's for example, on one hand they typically aren't drafted high but on another it is tough to find good ones and they are capable of being MVP type players.

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#24 : May 30, 2012, 12:27:43 PM

A big concern is what happens if you miss. Let's say with the #7 overall pick you eventually end up with a player who would be considered the #10 player at his position over a given time. Using PFF, here's a couple different positions and players:

QB: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe
OT: Marcus McNeil (in his prime), Bryant McKinnie (in his prime)
DE: Jason Babin, Robert Mathis
CB: Nate Clements, Brandon Carr
S: Roman Harper, Bernard Pollard

If you have your choice of all of these players with the #7 overall pick, you're picking the two safeties last every time.

If team need is out the window maybe you pick Safety last each time.
But do we need a 1st round:
QB? - No, we have Freeman. We'll see if that changes after this year.
WR? - No, we have VJax, MWill, Benn, Briscoe, Parker, etc
OT? - I'd say no. It would be more of a luxury. Penn is slotted at LT and #7 for a RT is really high.
DE? - No, at the time of draft we had Clayborn, Bowers and Bennett.
CB/S? - Both were definite needs. We dropped back two spots and were basically guaranteed either Barron or Clayborne. Not that the other positions aren't important and are maybe more "valuable" but as far as team needs, I think we did just fine.


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#25 : May 30, 2012, 12:42:21 PM

A big concern is what happens if you miss. Let's say with the #7 overall pick you eventually end up with a player who would be considered the #10 player at his position over a given time. Using PFF, here's a couple different positions and players:

QB: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe
OT: Marcus McNeil (in his prime), Bryant McKinnie (in his prime)
DE: Jason Babin, Robert Mathis
CB: Nate Clements, Brandon Carr
S: Roman Harper, Bernard Pollard

If you have your choice of all of these players with the #7 overall pick, you're picking the two safeties last every time.

If team need is out the window maybe you pick Safety last each time.
But do we need a 1st round:
QB? - No, we have Freeman. We'll see if that changes after this year.
WR? - No, we have VJax, MWill, Benn, Briscoe, Parker, etc
OT? - I'd say no. It would be more of a luxury. Penn is slotted at LT and #7 for a RT is really high.
DE? - No, at the time of draft we had Clayborn, Bowers and Bennett.
CB/S? - Both were definite needs. We dropped back two spots and were basically guaranteed either Barron or Clayborne. Not that the other positions aren't important and are maybe more "valuable" but as far as team needs, I think we did just fine.
Top 10 picks are supposed to be ten year players. Need is irrelevant.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#26 : May 30, 2012, 01:27:17 PM

I really dont agree with the, 'if you pick a safety at that level, he better be very good because there are many good ones in later rounds' way of thinking.

Out of the top , say 10, who you would expect to contribute at a high level, a good number of them simply will not. to me, unless your scouting gets to be 80% hits, I think you take the guy who most believe is a cant miss. Out of that group. I think the ones with the least chance of failure is Luck, Barron, Trent richardson and maybe Keickly. (spelling, I know and I dont care) I have serious doubts on the tackle, on the corner even on the other QB. So considering we got David later for our linebacker and who was there for us to pick, I think we took the right guy.

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#27 : May 30, 2012, 01:45:20 PM

A big concern is what happens if you miss. Let's say with the #7 overall pick you eventually end up with a player who would be considered the #10 player at his position over a given time. Using PFF, here's a couple different positions and players:

QB: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe
OT: Marcus McNeil (in his prime), Bryant McKinnie (in his prime)
DE: Jason Babin, Robert Mathis
CB: Nate Clements, Brandon Carr
S: Roman Harper, Bernard Pollard

If you have your choice of all of these players with the #7 overall pick, you're picking the two safeties last every time.

I get the point you are making, FRG, and it's an interesting way to slice it - although it's simply another way of stating that S isn't generally a premium position, a point on which few on this board disagree. 

The problem is, it's just not all that realistic - you don't get to pick players from a variety of drafts. I know that's a simple point, but it matters.  You pick players based on their relative abilities in the draft in which you are picking. So the only comparison that really matters is that of Barron to the next 20+ players. Those are the only players the Bucs missed on by taking Barron.

Just as an aside, I suspect the Vikes will have much more trouble justifying the pick of Harrison Smith in the long run.

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#28 : May 30, 2012, 01:53:35 PM

Barron is a Baller. Excited to see him play.

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#29 : May 30, 2012, 02:01:36 PM

I suggest a few people go back and see how Schiano like's to run his defense. The key position on his defense is the saftey position. As such, despite some here thinking otherwise, apparenrly Schiano thinks Barron will play the premier position on his team.
http://fastandfuriousfootball.com/wp-content/uploads/coachingmaterial2/43%20AFCAMiamiHurricanesDefensebyChuckPagano.pdf

Also, in regards to the 10th best player at their position that FRG showed. You know what else it shows? The quality of talent at the safety position falls off dramitically sharper than it does at other positions so maybe it's not the smartest move to wait longer.

And Booker, you are absolutely correct about comparing Barron to his draft class only.
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