Election Year Cooking of the Books?

[VinBucFan]

One man's view. To believe the post-debate jobs number you have to believe that at a time when NO major economist from either side of the fence was predicting unemployment below 8% three -- yes, that's right THREE  - - -different component statistics BROKE records that existed for DECADES. To arrive at the post-debate jobs number:

1. "the labor-force participation rate in the U.S. dropped to 63.5%, the lowest since September 1981"

2. "in the months of August and September, federal, state and local governments added 602,000 workers to their payrolls, the largest two-month increase in more than 20 years"

3. "overall, 873,000 workers were added in September, the largest one-month increase since 1983, during the booming Reagan recovery."

Hmmmm . . .  does it feel like we are in a "booming recovery'?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444897304578046260406091012.html

[dbucfan]

It isn't new - in origin or the rhetorical denials.  Oh yea, and I am neither a fan nor a supporter of the action.

[deadzone]

Islamobama and his worshipers have cooked the unemployment books from day one. The White House must smell like **CENSORED** by now.

[Morgan]

Islamobama and his worshipers have cooked the unemployment books from day one. The White House must smell like **CENSORED** by now.

Day one?

Ignoring your religious slur, if that were the case, why wouldn't they have "cooked the books" years ago to make it look like they've been making progress.

BLS is a non-partisan organization. Funny how the numbers were just fine a few months ago when they favored rightwingnutjobs' negative outlook.

[dalbuc]

Simple fact if you compare the Establishment Survey with the Household Survey you see a big problem. Household survey says 1.2m people found jobs while establishment survey says they created 143,000 jobs. There's 1.1m "mystery" jobs in there somewhere.

The Household Survey has always been the methodologically weaker survey to be honest because the survey is calling a ton of households as opposed to fewer companies and they haven't changed how they survey in decades because they want an "apples to apples" compare on the household. The numbers aren't right somewhere and if I had to guess it'd be the household figures are wrong.

[dbucfan]

Dal - if I understood the explanation the jobs you referenced occurred because of a reevaluation of the prior months based upon the findings of this monthly evaluation.  So the outcome isn't that 1.1 million of jobs occurred in the this monthly report, but rather that jobs were missed over a period of prior months.  None of that speaks well for the report.  Nor does it make sense that because of one month results one should amend multiple prior months.  I am neither a fan nor a supporter of such actions.

[deadzone]

Islamobama and his worshipers have cooked the unemployment books from day one. The White House must smell like **CENSORED** by now.

Day one?

Ignoring your religious slur, if that were the case, why wouldn't they have "cooked the books" years ago to make it look like they've been making progress.

BLS is a non-partisan organization. Funny how the numbers were just fine a few months ago when they favored rightwingnutjobs' negative outlook.

Hurt that liberal breast huh?

[dbucfan]

Islamobama and his worshipers have cooked the unemployment books from day one. The White House must smell like **CENSORED** by now.

Day one?

Ignoring your religious slur, if that were the case, why wouldn't they have "cooked the books" years ago to make it look like they've been making progress.

BLS is a non-partisan organization. Funny how the numbers were just fine a few months ago when they favored rightwingnutjobs' negative outlook.

If you have been playing along at home you would note that many felt the dropping out of previously supported citizens was misleadingly low a few months ago. 

[deadzone]

Morgan walking alone on the Ballast Point Pier..............

[spartan]

Simple fact if you compare the Establishment Survey with the Household Survey you see a big problem. Household survey says 1.2m people found jobs while establishment survey says they created 143,000 jobs. There's 1.1m "mystery" jobs in there somewhere.

The Household Survey has always been the methodologically weaker survey to be honest because the survey is calling a ton of households as opposed to fewer companies and they haven't changed how they survey in decades because they want an "apples to apples" compare on the household. The numbers aren't right somewhere and if I had to guess it'd be the household figures are wrong.

Yea but to the tune of 1 million jobs? I don't want to run out into the street shouting "conspiracy" as there are no facts, or even innuendo to back it up, but I must admit to raising an eyebrow when this came out. Taking politics out of it you have to hope it is true as that is a million Americans with a new job.

[dbucfan]

The point is that those surveying and reporting were wrong at least once, either now, or in the preceding months that were revised based upon the latest survey results.  The revision is pretty questionable if the jobs per month are anywhere near accurate - so we will see where future reports trend.  Odd this occurred in the last timely report before the election.  Coincidental? - well let's hope so as the other option is ugly.

[Bayfisher]

I think there is one more report to come out before the election. This is a simple case of the govt lying so much that the people don't know what to believe anymore.   

[dbucfan]

I believe there will be one the first week of November - but that would not be in time to be much of an impact to my way of thinking. 

[Morgan]

Islamobama and his worshipers have cooked the unemployment books from day one. The White House must smell like **CENSORED** by now.

Day one?

Ignoring your religious slur, if that were the case, why wouldn't they have "cooked the books" years ago to make it look like they've been making progress.

BLS is a non-partisan organization. Funny how the numbers were just fine a few months ago when they favored rightwingnutjobs' negative outlook.

If you have been playing along at home you would note that many felt the dropping out of previously supported citizens was misleadingly low a few months ago.

big difference between a faulty metric and claiming someone is cooking the books

[dbucfan]

Yes there is, the timing of the dramatic change does create some worries though.  And if you can recall this is not the first time the survey has been questioned.  And that is why I have referred many to the U6 - a bit more certain format.   And U6 for the same time doesn't support the Unemployment Report at issue.