Second-tier free agents, and bye-week observations revisited

[YReceiver14]

This year mirrors a typical FA year in that there are questionable but talented players that will get overpaid, and a slew of second-tier players, some of whom will strike rich and some who will be over looked.  We definitely need to be snagging some of those second-tier FAs, particularly with deep groups at TE and RT aligning our needs.  Some interesting names:

WR Danny Amendola - dynamic but injury-prone, I would be happy to have him at the right price, but would rather draft a mid-round WR for the slot

TE Fred Davis - receiving TE who tore his ACL in October and is one puff away from a year-long suspension
TE Dustin Keller - receiving TE who perennially underachieves, but could flourish with a change in scenery
TE Jared Cook - potential to be a complete TE; has been too vocal about his dissatisfaction with the Titan's coaching staff, but still my choice
TE Martellus Bennett - enigmatic TE who could someday become a complete TE; will joining his more serious brother here help him focus?

RT Andre Smith - run-blocking beast who is probably a first-tier FA
RT Brandon Albert - actually a LT, but I think we move him to RT
RT _____________ - as of yet unknown RT, aged 27-30, who will fall through the cracks and will be signed at near the minimum but perform solidly in 2013

DE Michael Johnson - I had hoped we could get him for a reasonable price as a rotational lineman, but he snagged 3 sacks in the last two games (11.5 on the year), and will probably be overpaid to play elsewhere

SLB Phillip Wheeler - if we can sign him cheap, and if we don't intend to draft Te'o and move Foster to SLB

FS Jairus Byrd - just a pipe dream; there's no way Buffalo lets him go this year


I didn't comment on the pass defense at the bye, but I believe the pass defense issues falls on the stubbornness of the coaching staff.  I think their defensive scheme can be a good one, but only if it has great corners.  Once we lost our two most competent corners, changes should have been made to adjust to the personnel.

That being said...

->Freeman is by far the most frustrating part of every week.

This is indeed still true.  I've gone from hopeful/frustrated to apathetic/angry at Freeman, but I believe we are taking the right approach to letting the situation play out, as there is really no other option:

Helping his cause is the upcoming QB draft class, which IMO is quantity over quality:

Barkley - Not worth the position it would take to get him.  He's a 16-32 pick QB who may go #1.
Geno Smith - No way.  Watch him on TV and then tell me if you think he's not a system QB.  Colt Brennan shakes his head at Geno Smith.
Tyler Wilson - OK, I do think he's actually good.  Not an elite arm, but definitely NFL-caliber, is accurate, tough, and makes good decisions.  If we are taking a QB this year, he'd be my pick.
Tyler Bray - As an SEC fan, I can say... very immature.  If there was a guy in this class who could "Ryan Leaf" himself out of the league, its Bray.
EJ Manuel - He's not as bad as people make him out to be, but is it worth it to trade Freeman's inconsistency for his?
Logan Thomas - Better than Geno Smith, still not that good.
Landry Jones - Awful.  I thought he looked good when he took over for Bradford, but it seems he's completely regressed, and they are handling him with kid gloves in his redshirt senior season.

Since this post, Wilson has risen up the mock drafts out there.  There have been some new QB names put out there, and we might be looking for a mid-round QB, so I'll just briefly say that I like Murray and Nassib, but Murray will probably rise up the boards and Nassib is probably an over-achieving backup-caliber player.  Oh, and I absolutely DO NOT WANT MIKE GLENNON.  I am shocked he is being mocked in the 1st round.  IMO, he has arm talent and looks the part, but for every one of Freeman's faults, Glennon has it double (terrible accuracy, terrible footwork/mechanics, bad anticipation, bad decision-making).  I'd draft 2011 Freeman over him.

->Doug Martin is not as bad as people are making him out to be, but it's clear he would benefit from being in a timeshare.

I didn't expect him to break out like he did, but I still think he needs a complementary back to take the load off of him.

Prediction: 7-9

I can't pat myself on the back much, because I didn't think it would be such a roller-coaster path to 7-9.  The team's 'arrow' is still pointing up, however, and with the right moves during this offseason and an above-average year from Freeman (fingers crossed), we should snag a wild-card berth next year.

[Ft Myers Buc Fan]

I didnt think we had a chance at him as I thought the Dolphins would keep him but this is interesting:

Per the Palm Beach Post, the Dolphins and impending free agent CB Sean Smith are "far apart" on contract talks.
Smith is said to be seeking a deal similar to the one Jason McCourty received from the Titans in August -- six years, $43 million, $20 million guaranteed. Miami is reportedly valuing Smith at a much lesser amount. The Dolphins will have until March 9 to negotiate with their long, physical corner, but it's almost certain that Smith will test the free-agent market.
Source: Palm Beach Post Jan 6 - 10:35 AM

Smith would be a great fit on this defense and I have been high on making a big push for Dustin Keller for awhile.  I think he is just getting into his prime and would be huge for Freeman.  Delanie Walker is another guy to keep an eye on as I dont see Dallas Clark back with the Bucs

I don't know if we can justify another huge contract for the OL and I think Albert will get some big offers from the team that misses out on Jake Long.  I think we draft a RT with the ability to play LT as well in the first 3 round of the draft. 

Byrd will be franchised but if Dashon Goldston makes it to FA, then I would hope we may a strong push for him.  I like Ahmad Black but I think we need an upgrade at FS that has the ability to also play SS so we can put Barron in the box more.  Swearinger in the draft would also be a great pick to fill this need

[YReceiver14]

Smith would be a great fit on this defense.

I agree on the fit, but I think Sean Smith is overrated at this point.  Unless his best football is still ahead of him, I'm thinking he'll be way overpaid this offseason.

We are very needy at CB, though.  And hey, it'd be better than signing a lesser corner to big money, say Eric Wright...

[Ft Myers Buc Fan]

Smith would be a great fit on this defense.

I agree on the fit, but I think Sean Smith is overrated at this point.  Unless his best football is still ahead of him, I'm thinking he'll be way overpaid this offseason.

We are very needy at CB, though.  And hey, it'd be better than signing a lesser corner to big money, say Eric Wright...

Exactly. We dont have the luxury of waiting some of these FA corners out. We have to grab at least one quality starting CB on the first day of free agency and it will cost us but we have no choice. Smith and Grimes are my first two choices but as always, it all depends on who actually makes it to free agency

[GameTime]

whatever CB's we sign this year will most likely be overrated and overpaid.  unless rolling with biggers-johnson-lewis-gorrer is what our fans want.

[Heisenbuc]

If Jared Cook really is a FA, we need to be all over him. That guy is a great player lost in a crappy offense in Tennessee. Exactly the kind of possession guy that can bail out Freeman in situations. With Cook, we could keep someone like Underwood, Benn or Stroughter in the slot or bring in a new guy in the draft.

[mgchat76]

Man, I hope Sean Smith hits the free agent market.  He's 25 years old, 6'3" 214 lbs, and his physical play would match up well with the bigger WR we see each year.  He's got a competitive spirit, he reportedly asked Miami to be put on opposing teams #1 WR earlier this season.  At the midseason point, Pro Football Focus mentioned him as a potential pro-bowler.  He's had some poor games down the stretch, but he's still far better than anything we have currently.  He's also a very good tackler, so that should fit into Schiano's scheme as well. He'd probably be better off as a #2 CB, but since the pickings are slim and we are so desperate I'd say pay the man.

I'm not a huge fan of signing Grimes, just because of his age, size, and the fact that he's coming off a serious injury.  He's a great player and has torched us many times, but I'd rather throw money at the younger, healthier, and bigger player.

[1Va bucsfan]

I like Delanie Walker/ Jared Cook as our TE targets. I'd like to see if Delmas/Chung could up their game in Tampa. Also wouldn't mind seeing Woodhead and Keenan Lewis in pewter. I'm torn between Michael Johnson and Michael Bennett, both put up career numbers in contract years. I love Bennett's never give up attitude and Work ethic but also love that MJ is 25 and All pro/game changing ability!

[McCoy93]

DJ Moore cornerback bears

[GameTime]

Man, I hope Sean Smith hits the free agent market.  He's 25 years old, 6'3" 214 lbs, and his physical play would match up well with the bigger WR we see each year.  He's got a competitive spirit, he reportedly asked Miami to be put on opposing teams #1 WR earlier this season.  At the midseason point, Pro Football Focus mentioned him as a potential pro-bowler.  He's had some poor games down the stretch, but he's still far better than anything we have currently.  He's also a very good tackler, so that should fit into Schiano's scheme as well. He'd probably be better off as a #2 CB, but since the pickings are slim and we are so desperate I'd say pay the man.

overpay for smith and DRC.  tweak the defense.    sign the bennett brothers.draft ogletree/teo?

[mgchat76]

Not interested in DRC, I don't see him fitting in here.  Wouldn't mind trading for Antonio Cromartie, though.  He's a little long in the tooth (he'll turn 29 this spring), but was one of the best CB's this season after Revis went down.  Jets will need to create some cap space somehow.  Maybe trade one of our 4's and a 6 for him.  Sign Smith and Glover Quin to play FS.  I still think we draft Logan Ryan to play nickel, add depth, and eventually take over when Cromartie becomes a FA.  If we made those moves our secondary would be a top 5 unit in this league.

[GameTime]

Not interested in DRC, I don't see him fitting in here.  Wouldn't mind trading for Antonio Cromartie, though. 

why do you believe that DRC wouldnt fit in but cromartie would?

[mgchat76]

Not interested in DRC, I don't see him fitting in here.  Wouldn't mind trading for Antonio Cromartie, though. 

why do you believe that DRC wouldnt fit in but cromartie would?

DRC's lack of physicality and inconsistent effort this season.  There were times when he looked afraid to tackle.  I just don't think that would fly with this coaching staff.  Antonio has been one of the better tackling CB's this season.  I'm not thrilled about his calling out management regarding the Tebow trade, or his 43 kids in 48 states, but to my knowledge he's been a good teammate and given good effort for the last couple of seasons.  I could be wrong about that, but he's probably the best CB that may be available (if he is, it's just speculation on my part due to the Jets dire salary cap situation).