The Pocket Passer Is An Endangered Species

[michael89156]

NFL Quarterbacks: The Pocket Passer Is An Endangered Species

By Anthony King



January 16, 2013 10:10 am
 






Reporters asked the head coach who he would play in place of the starting quarterback with the torn rotator cuff. The coach looked dumbfounded as he replied, “What do you mean? Of course he’s still going to start, he doesn’t need a rotator cuff to run the read-option 50 times a game.”
 
This terrible joke has been brought to you by the nightmarish hellscape that could be the NFL’s future.

In years past, making it in the NFL as a running quarterback generally meant you would have to change positions. Antwaan Randle El did it for the Pittsburgh Steelers when they shifted him to wide receiver. Former Penn State QB, Michael Robinson, packed on 40 pounds to play fullback for the Seattle Seahawks. Even past Heisman winners, such as Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward and Troy Smith found there was no place for their style of play in the NFL – but it appears now there is.

Thanks to the quick success this season of the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks, both of whom handed the reins of their offenses to unconventional quarterbacks, a frightening shift may occur whereby other NFL franchises will start to copy the formulas of these two immediate playoff teams?

Looking back just a few seasons, to 2009, Michael Vick was the only unconventional quarterback leading an NFL team. Fast forward to 2012, and there are now six. Big deal right, six out of 32 teams is still just a microcosm of the league – which is true – until we look at the top players who will be coming out of the college ranks next.

Running quarterback, Johnny Manziel, became the first freshman ever to win the Heisman trophy, and while he still has at least two seasons left in school, he just goes to highlight the kind of shift the game is in the midst of making. The college and pro games had never been more dissimilar in recent years, yet it is actually the NFL who seems to be adopting more elements from college, instead of the other way around.

The read-option was a play no one ever tried in the NFL, because conventional wisdom said it was just a college gimmick with no chance for success against the fast, professional defenses in the NFL. Yet somehow, this play has finally permeated the NFL game, and its early effectiveness could signal a dangerous sign of things to come.   

Last Three Heisman Trophy Winners

2012 Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

2011 Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

2010 Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Add Tim Tebow and Troy Smith’s names to the mix and we see that five of the last seven Heisman trophies have gone to running quarterbacks. This just goes to underscore the type of players the college game is starting to consistently produce. In 2012, seven quarterbacks rushed for over 1,000 yards in college football – only three QBs amassed the same feat in 2011.

West Virginia’s QB, Geno Smith, looks to be the next in line from a stocked stable of running quarterbacks set to emerge from the college game. Clemson’s Tajh Boyd, Ohio State’s Braxton Miller, North Illinois’ Jordan Lynch and Kansas State’s Collin Klein are some of the other names sure to pepper the NFL landscape in the coming years as well.

So, while there are only six unconventional quarterbacks leading offenses right now, in a year or two, we could see a drastic shift in how the NFL game is played. Going from one running quarterback in 2009, all the way to potentially half of the league in just a three or four year stretch is not just a trend, but more accurately, it may usher in a systematic change to how the NFL game is played.

Big time college programs, such as the University of Michigan, are no longer interested in cultivating the Tom Brady’s of the game. For a school that once prided themselves on a “three yards in a cloud of dust” style of offense, even their stodgy old traditions have been dusted off to make way for a more open offensive attack with the likes of Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner as their quarterbacks.

Some of the blame has to go to the culture of the “business” of college football. For college coaches who have to win now to keep the tentative grips they have on their own jobs, the “best athletes” are generally the ones who are able to make the shift from high school to college most swiftly. This means, instead of schools looking for the pro-style project they can mold into the pure pocket passer who can read coverages and quickly run through his progressions, we get the fast athlete freshman who can also throw a little being asked to take over premiere college programs immediately.



So what does this mean for the game’s future? Are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady the last vestiges of a dying breed of quarterback who one day dreamed of growing up to be Joe Montana? Instead of running through scenarios in the backyard where they make the perfect pass to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone, are kids now just imagining juking out two defenders to run for the game-winning score?

This season even saw a top five passer, Alex Smith, being benched in favor of the unconventional style of Colin Kaepernick. All Smith did was throw 12 touchdowns to only five interceptions, have a completion percentage of 69.3, rack up a passer rating of 104.1 and lead his team to a division-leading 6-2 record. If this were the corporate world, Smith might have a very strong wrongful termination case to levy against the San Francisco 49ers.

Yet, the Niners decided to go with the unproven Kaepernick and adapt their offense to incorporate his strengths as a running quarterback. You can’t argue with the early success of Kaepernick so far, but will the pedestal that these running quarterbacks are being put on actually hurt the NFL product down the line?

Robert Griffin III took home the Rookie of the Year award over Andrew Luck, but examining the two as pure passers of the football, an alarming philosophical change in offenses takes shape. The Washington Redskins have adapted their offense to fit RG3’s skill set, which did prove to earn them a post-season berth, yet many of his throws could fall firmly into the category of dump-off passes.

The West-coast style of system which sees a lot of screen passes and short throws that turn into 10-yard pass completions on the stat sheet may make people believe some of these quarterbacks are better at doing certain things than they really are.

If one needed a precise, 15-yard out-route thrown toward the sidelines, I can’t imagine RG3, Russell Wilson or Cam Newton would be the quarterbacks high on the list for such a throw. Yet, Griffin’s 20 touchdowns to only five interceptions seems to indicate that this type of throw could be in just as much danger as the pocket-passer who used to throw them.

How will offenses change in the coming years? Will the game devolve to be played closer to the line-of-scrimmage, in which case, is the 50-yard deep throws and blazing fastballs being rifled through the tight windows of the defensive secondary going to also become extinct?

Still, all of this could be premature. Many feel NFL defenses themselves will limit the change at quarterback due to them eventually adapting to stop this new breed to quarterback. Injuries are also a big concern for this type of passer. Michael Vick saw immediate success but has only been able to play a full 16-game schedule in one of his 10 professional seasons. Robert Griffin III was also bit by the running-quarterback injury bug as he lost games due to injury and unceremoniously ended his season with an ACL and LCL tear that could even threaten his availability and productivity in the 2013 season.

So, does Football Nation see a permanent shift in the type of NFL quarterbacks we will see in the coming years? Maybe more importantly, do you feel this trend will have a positive or negative impact on the future of the game?
 
 
 




http://www.footballnation.com/content/nfl-quarterbacks-the-pocket-passer-is-an-endangered-species/20890/

[baybuc35]

Matt ryan , Tom Brady , joe flacco seem like pocket passers

[bucsquad]

Geno Smith really isn't a running QB.

Marcus Mariota to the Eagles in a couple years.

[Chief Joseph]

 "Still, all of this could be premature."

Probably the only part worth reading.

[The Anti-Java]

Geno Smith really isn't a running QB.

Agree, and if Freeman doesn't pan out,  maybe they can get in position to draft Johnny Football.  Although I suspect that might require a 0-16 record or close to it.  Consolation prize.....Clowney.

[TBTrojan]

Hmmm, lets see....
At least 1 of the Super Bowl QBs is already sure to be a pocket passer.
3 of 4 QBs in this weekends championship games are pocket passers
2 of the 4 who were sent packing last weekend were pocket passers.
All 6 AFC playoff teams had pocket passers while th #1 seed in the NFC has one.
A pocket passer just broke a bunch of the rookie QB records.
A pocket passer in New Orleans is breaking records left & right in recent seasons.
The league MVP will likely be a pocket passer.
The 3 highest scoring teams in the league all had pocket passers
Yeah it's safe to say their time is done, you can win in todays NFL unless you have one of the flavour of the week type mobile guys.

Seriously, how many times do they have to learn.
No end of times we've had the hype of the mobile QB killing off the pocket passer and yet here we are with a league where the teams that have success generally have pocket passers.

[JDouble]

Everything goes in cycles. This same conversation has been had before. Great pocket passers will always remain and excel.

[BucfanNC12]

I think obvious change in the league is CBs are getting bigger than the traditional 5'9 guys.

[JDouble]

I think obvious change in the league is CBs are getting bigger than the traditional 5'9 guys.

People have been saying this for years, but it still isn't true. There are always goinf to be freak WRs and CBs that are taller and bigger than the average, but the average height of a WR is still  just a hair over 6ft, and the average CB height is still just under 5'10".  Teams will always look for the freaks, but the truth is that the vast majority of guys over 6ft tall don't have the quickness and change of direction ability to play the position.

[Benchwarmer#1]

Geno Smith really isn't a running QB.

Agree, and if Freeman doesn't pan out,  maybe they can get in position to draft Johnny Football.  Although I suspect that might require a 0-16 record or close to it.  Consolation prize.....Clowney.

It matches right up IMO.

We get to see freeman in this offense one more time, and if he fails, Tampa could nab Johnny up. Perfect timing.

Besides, what team out there is going 0-16/ 1-15? Kc will improve, the jags are always a step above bad or better, and besides the cards or browns, I can't think of any team being that bad. We also have to figure that if schiano and Co don't start out strong, it might go downhill very quick.

I say trade up to get him if we have to. He's a damn good pocket passer that can run very well. He's not running in a gimmick offense, so i really don't see the comparisons to tebow either. Mostly everyone that has their anger pointed at freeman should love this pick. He's the total anti-freeman.

I'm going out on a limb here and say Johnny would be worth a very large trade.

[McBarron]

The article may apply to CFB but not the NFL. Simple reason is mobile QBs who play run-first take an ungodly beating every Sunday. Look at McNair and McNabb.......they were run-happy in their first few years but had to transition to being pass-first. They did that and BECAUSE OF THAT they had remarkable careers.

Cam Newton will be the next example, and hopefully RGIII will follow suit. If RGIII keeps playing the way he has been playing, he may end up in a coma before his 3rd season.

Someone name the best 3-5 QBs since 2000 and tell me whether they are great due to rushing yds or passing yds. Are they known for mobility or pocket-passing?

[McBarron]

"Even past Heisman winners, such as Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward and Troy Smith found there was no place for their style of play in the NFL – but it appears now there is."

Eric Crouch ran the f%^&in option at Nebraska. Of course there isn't, never has been, and never will be a spot for option-QBs who can't throw their way out of a wet paper bag. 


Stats of these QBs the yr they won the Heisman:

Troy Smith - 203-311 / 65.3% / 2542yds / 30tds / 6ints / 161.9 rating
Charlie Ward - 264-380 / 69.5% / 3032yds / 27tds / 4ints / 157.8 rating
Eric Crouch - 105-189 / 55.6% / 1510yds / 7tds / 10ints / 124.3 rating

Troy Smith actually showed some signs of life as a NFL QB the few chances he got. But, he was and is way too damn short to play the QB position. I'm biased towards Ward as he was my childhood hero. The NBA veteran was a much better football player than a basketball player. Maybe that can put into perspective how good he could've been in the NFL.

[Feel Real Good]

Eric Crouch ran the f%^&in option at Nebraska. Of course there isn't, never has been, and never will be a spot for option-QBs who can't throw their way out of a wet paper bag. 

This. The NFL will always be about good passing QB's. These days more and more good passing QB's can also run some, but there will never be a situation where bad passing QB's who can run will be successful for a significant stretch of time.

[BucNY]

I find it hard to believe that in a league that is bigger, faster and stronger by the year that a RGIII is going to make it long term. He's been hurt before and missed several games this year. Russell Wilson is a runner but will slide everytime, which maybe be the only way he survives. With Colin it remains to be seen how he'll fair over the course of a long season.

Let's clear about one thing right now though. RGIII works, Russell Wilson works, Colik Kaepernik works because they can throw the ball very efficiently. They are tough to stop, right now anyway, because when no one is open they can run for a 1st down. This only works if the QB can go through his progression and not take off to quickly. Tim Tebow doesn't work because he can't throw.

The title is misleading. The pocket passer is bigger than ever, what is growing right now is the number of guys who have enough speed and athleticism to run for a 1st down when everything is locked up. I do believe defenses will catch up as defenses continue to get smaller and faster in order to play better coverage.

[ISLAND BUCS]

Good pocket passers seem to get better as they age (Maybe they learn how to better read defenses)

The running aspect of a QB has at best 5 or 6 yrs, then slowing sets in, either because of aging or injury.