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BucsBay

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: January 24, 2013, 09:36:51 AM

When I look around the league at the top CB's, I see a lot of players drafted in later rounds, or a lot of players who didn't really shine until they got to their second team. We can debate the top 10 CBs in the league, but for the sake of time in starting the discussion I'll borrow a list from a thread at http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=509697

1. Darrelle Revis
2. Jonathan Joseph
3. Charles Tillman
4. Richard Sherman
5. Joe Haden
6. Brandon Flowers
7. Patrick Peterson
8. Tim Jennings
9. Champ Bailey
10. Asanta Samuel

Not saying I agree with the list, or the order, but the only players on it who were first round picks and still play with the team who drafted them are Darrelle Revis (at least for now), Joe Haden, and Patrick Peterson. Even Revis took time do develop into the player he is (and hopefully will still be after the knee injury), and Haden and especially Peterson were both viewed as the top CB prospects in many years when they came out.

My point is that taking a CB at the top of round 1 doesn't guarantee you a good player, especially not in their first few years.

Feel Real Good

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#1 : January 24, 2013, 10:15:03 AM

As you watch league trends over the years, it's definitely true that good-to-really good CB's move teams more than any other premium position.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

BucNY

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#2 : January 24, 2013, 04:28:52 PM

Can you pass and can you stop the pass. Can we pass? Hells yeah we can pass, Free just broke the Franchise record. Can we stop the pass? Hell no we can't we just broke the franchise record for most passing yards given up. FS or CB or I'm very disappointed in the 1st round.

\\\\\\\"This forum needs a poster like BucNY now more than ever\\\\\\\"
      - Everyone

Lord Bortles

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#3 : January 24, 2013, 05:29:53 PM

If I'm a talented CB and my team is offering me money, I'm not going to leave just because of trends. Draft the playmakers and be done with it.

RD 1) QB B. Bortles/ T. Bridgewater/ J. Manziel
RD 2) WR Kelvin Benjamin/ A. Robinson/ D. Adams/ M. Lee/
RD 3) OG D. Dozier/ C. Richardson/
RD 5) WR D. Archer/ J. Huff/ M. Davis/ TJ Jones/ R Grant
RD 6) OLB P Shembo/ R. Powell/ - DE A. Lynch/ M Sam  RD 7) G B. Thomas (injured)

bucinnj

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#4 : January 24, 2013, 05:39:39 PM

Good list Bucs Bay.

Now the key is finding that player that will thrive in Tampa Bay.

Much easier said then done.

Turn the page.

NotDeadYet

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#5 : January 24, 2013, 06:54:23 PM

    If you're gonna draft a CB in round 1, ya better be prepared to put big $$$ into the position. And I wouldn't draft the divas, of which there are many among elite CBs, as they are likely to leave an organization that doesn't tolerate diva behavior...

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#6 : January 24, 2013, 08:54:38 PM

Which is why Trufant will be the best CB in the draft.


Blaze688

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#7 : January 24, 2013, 09:19:42 PM

Since 2000, there have been 48 corners drafted in the first round.  Fourteen of them made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted them:

1. Nate Clements
2. Chris McAlister
3. Nnamdi Asomugha
4. Terence Newman
5. DeAngelo Hall
6. Darrelle Revis
7. Marcus Trufant
8. Deltha O'Neal
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Lito Sheppard
11. Patrick Peterson
12. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Mike Jenkins
14. Devin McCourty

So, you're looking at a one-in-three shot of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in Round One, which isn't too bad in my opinion.


BucsBay

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#8 : January 24, 2013, 09:35:56 PM

Since 2000, there have been 48 corners drafted in the first round.  Fourteen of them made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted them:

1. Nate Clements
2. Chris McAlister
3. Nnamdi Asomugha
4. Terence Newman
5. DeAngelo Hall
6. Darrelle Revis
7. Marcus Trufant
8. Deltha O'Neal
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Lito Sheppard
11. Patrick Peterson
12. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Mike Jenkins
14. Devin McCourty

So, you're looking at a one-in-three shot of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in Round One, which isn't too bad in my opinion.

I'm not going to take the time to run the numbers, but I'm willing to bet that if you counted the number of CBs drafted 2nd round and after you'd have at least 3 or 4 times as many pro-bowler. Where if you look at positions like DE or LT, it is probably much closer to 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 (number of pro-bowlers drafted in the 1st rounder vs number drafted after).

I know it's not much of an argument without better stats, but it is the impression I have.

BucsBay

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#9 : January 24, 2013, 09:38:41 PM

Since 2000, there have been 48 corners drafted in the first round.  Fourteen of them made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted them:

1. Nate Clements
2. Chris McAlister
3. Nnamdi Asomugha
4. Terence Newman
5. DeAngelo Hall
6. Darrelle Revis
7. Marcus Trufant
8. Deltha O'Neal
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Lito Sheppard
11. Patrick Peterson
12. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Mike Jenkins
14. Devin McCourty

So, you're looking at a one-in-three shot of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in Round One, which isn't too bad in my opinion.

And I'm pretty sure Jenkins went as a Safety. Like a lot of guys on this list I wouldn't necessarily count him as a great draft pick even though he made a pro-bowl.

Blaze688

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#10 : January 24, 2013, 10:46:59 PM

Since 2000, there have been 48 corners drafted in the first round.  Fourteen of them made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted them:

1. Nate Clements
2. Chris McAlister
3. Nnamdi Asomugha
4. Terence Newman
5. DeAngelo Hall
6. Darrelle Revis
7. Marcus Trufant
8. Deltha O'Neal
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Lito Sheppard
11. Patrick Peterson
12. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Mike Jenkins
14. Devin McCourty

So, you're looking at a one-in-three shot of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in Round One, which isn't too bad in my opinion.

I'm not going to take the time to run the numbers, but I'm willing to bet that if you counted the number of CBs drafted 2nd round and after you'd have at least 3 or 4 times as many pro-bowler. Where if you look at positions like DE or LT, it is probably much closer to 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 (number of pro-bowlers drafted in the 1st rounder vs number drafted after).

I know it's not much of an argument without better stats, but it is the impression I have.

And I'm pretty sure Jenkins went as a Safety.

Jenkins has never played safety.

And as for rounds two and beyond:

1. Asante Samuel (fourth round)
2. Charles Tillman (second)
3. Rashean Mathis (second)
4. Terrence McGee (fourth)
5. Cortland Finnegan (seventh)
6. Nathan Vasher (fourth)
7. Tramon Williams (undrafted)
8. Brent Grimes (undrafted)
9. Corey Graham (fifth)

... made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted or initially signed them.  That's nine players out of the 262 (3%) that were taken in rounds two through undrafted.


BucsBay

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#11 : January 25, 2013, 12:40:29 AM

Since 2000, there have been 48 corners drafted in the first round.  Fourteen of them made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted them:

1. Nate Clements
2. Chris McAlister
3. Nnamdi Asomugha
4. Terence Newman
5. DeAngelo Hall
6. Darrelle Revis
7. Marcus Trufant
8. Deltha O'Neal
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Lito Sheppard
11. Patrick Peterson
12. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Mike Jenkins
14. Devin McCourty

So, you're looking at a one-in-three shot of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in Round One, which isn't too bad in my opinion.

I'm not going to take the time to run the numbers, but I'm willing to bet that if you counted the number of CBs drafted 2nd round and after you'd have at least 3 or 4 times as many pro-bowler. Where if you look at positions like DE or LT, it is probably much closer to 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 (number of pro-bowlers drafted in the 1st rounder vs number drafted after).

I know it's not much of an argument without better stats, but it is the impression I have.

And I'm pretty sure Jenkins went as a Safety.

Jenkins has never played safety.

And as for rounds two and beyond:

1. Asante Samuel (fourth round)
2. Charles Tillman (second)
3. Rashean Mathis (second)
4. Terrence McGee (fourth)
5. Cortland Finnegan (seventh)
6. Nathan Vasher (fourth)
7. Tramon Williams (undrafted)
8. Brent Grimes (undrafted)
9. Corey Graham (fifth)

... made Pro Bowls for the team that drafted or initially signed them.  That's nine players out of the 262 (3%) that were taken in rounds two through undrafted.

My bad. Confused Mike and Malcom Jenkins.

Your list doesn't have Richard Sherman, Browner (undrafted), Walt Harris, Nathan Vasher, Ty Law, and our own Ronde Barber. That's going back to 2005, but your point is there. It is about 1 to 1.


Blaze688

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#12 : January 25, 2013, 10:30:54 AM

Your list doesn't have Richard Sherman, Browner (undrafted), Walt Harris, Nathan Vasher, Ty Law, and our own Ronde Barber. That's going back to 2005, but your point is there. It is about 1 to 1.

Richard Sherman has never made a Pro Bowl.  Walt Harris, Ronde Barber, and Ty Law were all drafted pre-2000, so I purposefully left them out of the discussion.  Nathan Vasher is clearly listed above, at number six.  And Browner was an accidental omission.

But even with Browner's addition, it still gives you just under a four-percent chance of drafting a Pro Bowl corner in rounds two through undrafted.  That is not 1:1 with the 29-percent chance of drafting one in the first 32 picks.
: January 25, 2013, 10:33:15 AM Blaze688


Feel Real Good

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#13 : January 25, 2013, 10:35:49 AM

Excellent work, Blaze688.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

Buc on the Move

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#14 : January 25, 2013, 10:53:20 AM

No offense, Blaze, I agree with FRG, that is some impressive number crunching, but I hope the team doesn't rely too much on "trends" and "metrics" when selecting their players.  I like Stokes approach of going with feel and first impressions.  Also, this is a game played by people, and personalities and "fits" have to be considered too, in order to make a successful team.  If we reach, and take a guy just because first round corners have more success, then we probably won't have a good draft.
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