Great article on NFL success rate in the draft.

[lyronmewis]

My favourite comparison is seeing how many quality starters we have drafted/udfa pickup from 2002-2008 compared to good teams.

Bucs

Zuttah
Joseph
Penn

Penn and Joseph are above average players. A bit overrated, but still good enough to call a quality pickup. Although, drafting a guard in the first round really should yield you a decent player, otherwise you really screwed up.


49ers

Frank Gore
Joe Staley
Vernon Davis
Patrick Willis

Dashon Goldson
Ray McDonald
Isaac Sopoaga
Tarell Brown


So you have a handful of players who are elite/borderline elite, and a couple who are solid, maybe some above average players.

The heart of their team - the offensive line - and other impact players like Aldon Smith, Crabtree, and Bowman were drafted 2009 and later, but I really doubt that they would even make the playoffs unless they had previous talent.

[Booker Reese]

Illuminator, don't use a straw man to beat another one up.

He's identifying 1 and 2, of which there are many. Those in group 2 may not like his drafting, but it came with the territory, no?

[dalbuc]

It's an interesting analysis, but the problem with these types of analysis is the tug of war between quantity and quality.

Cards are #1 over the last 10 years but they would be a better team if instead of all the "wins" in the draft they had they'd just drafted Tom Brady.

Sadly a better way to value this might b the total  salaries earned by your draftees since better players get paid more and higher value players get paid more.

[Foedus]

 "It does seem most Dominik haters are still wanting Gruden to be the coach."

It only seems that way because you like to make up imaginary opponents. If there are so many of these people, why don't you name a few? I'll remind you of the qualifications you've set:
1. Dominik hater
2. Wants Gruden to be coach
3. Thinks Gruden drafted well

Good luck making your imaginary persecutors real.

 You can't have 2 without 3 it certainly wasn't Bruce Allen pulling the strings. 

[Booker Reese]

It's an interesting analysis, but the problem with these types of analysis is the tug of war between quantity and quality.

Cards are #1 over the last 10 years but they would be a better team if instead of all the "wins" in the draft they had they'd just drafted Tom Brady.

Sadly a better way to value this might b the total  salaries earned by your draftees since better players get paid more and higher value players get paid more.

I like that salary idea.

I do think the Cards have drafted pretty well - it's just that they've been woeful at the most important spot, and not that great at the OL. They passed on quite a few reasonable options in 2011 so that they could take Patrick Peterson. 

[Feel Real Good]

It's an interesting analysis, but the problem with these types of analysis is the tug of war between quantity and quality.

Cards are #1 over the last 10 years but they would be a better team if instead of all the "wins" in the draft they had they'd just drafted Tom Brady.

Sadly a better way to value this might b the total  salaries earned by your draftees since better players get paid more and higher value players get paid more.

I like that salary idea.

I do think the Cards have drafted pretty well - it's just that they've been woeful at the most important spot, and not that great at the OL. They passed on quite a few reasonable options in 2011 so that they could take Patrick Peterson.

Also, many of the good players they drafted are no longer on the team.

[The Anomaly]

How about wins and losses?

Starting your own crappy players every year because you are stubborn and don't have anything else doesn't equate to "great drafts".

This is beyond awful.

[lyronmewis]

Ravens from 2002-2008

Flacco
Rice
Suggs
Ngata
Reed

Marshal Yanda
Ma'ake Kemoeatu (left for a few years)


Would they be in the Superbowl if they started at the same position we did in 2009? They've had decent drafts, but nothing spectacular.

Oher is a bit of a disappointment at this point, he was drafted in the first to be a LT eventually.. Jimmy Smith is also a disappointment. He's a first round pick that isn't a starter despite injuries. Sergio Kindle is a bust. Terrence Cody is a disappointment.

Ellerbe, Webb, Pitta and Torrey Smith are good players. Kruger's performance matches his draft position.

[lyronmewis]

Packers

Rodgers
Nelson
Jennings
Tramon Williams
Josh SItton
James Jones

AJ Hawk
Jermichael Finley

[Feel Real Good]

Ravens from 2002-2008

Flacco
Rice
Suggs
Ngata
Reed

Marshal Yanda
Ma'ake Kemoeatu (left for a few years)


Would they be in the Superbowl if they started at the same position we did in 2009? They've had decent drafts, but nothing spectacular.

Oher is a bit of a disappointment at this point, he was drafted in the first to be a LT eventually.. Jimmy Smith is also a disappointment. He's a first round pick that isn't a starter despite injuries. Sergio Kindle is a bust. Terrence Cody is a disappointment.

Ellerbe, Webb, Pitta and Torrey Smith are good players. Kruger's performance matches his draft position.

You tremendously underrate other players.

Chester Taylor: 2002 6th round 1,200 rushing yard season
Jarret Johnson: 2003 4th round Chargers signed to $19 million contract
Ovie Mughelli: 2003 4th round Falcons made highest paid FB in NFL
Aubrayo Franklin: 2003 5th round 49ers franchised a few years ago
Dwan Edwards: 2004 2nd round Bills signed to $17 million contract
Jason Brown: 2005 4th round Rams signed to $37 million contract
Derek Anderson: 2005 6th round Made Pro Bowl in 2007
Chris Chester: 2006 2nd round Redskins signed to $20 million contract
Dawan Landry: 2006 5th round Jaguars signed to $27 million contract
Ben Grubbs: 2007 1st round Saints signed to $36 million contract
Le'Ron McClain: 2007 4th round Had 900 yard rushing season
Jared Gaither: 2007 supp Chargers signed to $24 million contract

[lyronmewis]

Ravens from 2002-2008

Flacco
Rice
Suggs
Ngata
Reed

Marshal Yanda
Ma'ake Kemoeatu (left for a few years)


Would they be in the Superbowl if they started at the same position we did in 2009? They've had decent drafts, but nothing spectacular.

Oher is a bit of a disappointment at this point, he was drafted in the first to be a LT eventually.. Jimmy Smith is also a disappointment. He's a first round pick that isn't a starter despite injuries. Sergio Kindle is a bust. Terrence Cody is a disappointment.

Ellerbe, Webb, Pitta and Torrey Smith are good players. Kruger's performance matches his draft position.

You tremendously underrate other players.

Chester Taylor: 2002 6th round 1,200 rushing yard season
Jarret Johnson: 2003 4th round Chargers signed to $19 million contract
Ovie Mughelli: 2003 4th round Falcons made highest paid FB in NFL
Aubrayo Franklin: 2003 5th round 49ers franchised a few years ago
Dwan Edwards: 2004 2nd round Bills signed to $17 million contract
Jason Brown: 2005 4th round Rams signed to $37 million contract
Derek Anderson: 2005 6th round Made Pro Bowl in 2007
Chris Chester: 2006 2nd round Redskins signed to $20 million contract
Dawan Landry: 2006 5th round Jaguars signed to $27 million contract
Ben Grubbs: 2007 1st round Saints signed to $36 million contract
Le'Ron McClain: 2007 4th round Had 900 yard rushing season
Jared Gaither: 2007 supp Chargers signed to $24 million contract

I'm going by who is on the team right now, and who helped them to their deep playoff runs.

I'm saying that there's few teams who would be good if they had to pretty much start from scratch from 2009 like we did.

Seattle is pretty much the only one that I can think of.

I'm blaming Gruden and his cronies for putting the team in the current position it's in. Most good teams haven't had to hit on all of their top picks, because they had a lot of talent from before. Dominik has pretty much no room for error. Half of Freeman, Bowers, Clayborn, Foster, Benn, Martin, David, Barron need to turn into elite players, and the rest need to be above average players if we plan on winning the Superbowl anytime soon. 

Teams can go from a bad team to a playoff team in one season, but most likely it means a first round exit because there's too many holes.

[The Anomaly]

lyron:  Oh geez, you were the guy who wanted to give Dom 20 years.  This is year FIVE of a rebuild.  Gruden has ZERO to do with today.  I'm tired of the Gruden whiners and please enough is enough.  We jettisoned all kinds of players old, young, talented...we started from scratch.  If you can't build a playoff team in FIVE years...you suck as a GM.  Period.  If you think I'm wrong....let's have a poll.  We can have the board decide.  Wager?

[lyronmewis]

lyron:  Oh geez, you were the guy who wanted to give Dom 20 years.  This is year FIVE of a rebuild.  Gruden has ZERO to do with today.  I'm tired of the Gruden whiners and please enough is enough.  We jettisoned all kinds of players old, young, talented...we started from scratch.  If you can't build a playoff team in FIVE years...you suck as a GM.  Period.  If you think I'm wrong....let's have a poll.  We can have the board decide.  Wager?

I just showed the rosters of some successful teams.

If you think that they would have made the roster with mainly the guys they drafted since 2009, then I don't know what to say.

The roster has improved every year since 2009, and that's what a GM is supposed to do.

Dom gets 6-7 years in my opinion as long as the roster doesn't decline in talent. In that time, 4 years worth of drafts would have accumulated enough experience to judge them.

This team would be in the playoffs if it had 3 elite players from 2002-2008 still here, and 2 other good players.

[The Anomaly]

Then bang on the glazers for giving up 2 ones and 2 twos.  That's a big hole.