Draft Trading By the Numbers

[michael89156]

2013 NFL Draft: NFL Draft Trading By the Numbers


Jan 31st, 2013 at 8:01 pm

 by Leo Howell

2013 NFL Draft





 
Looking back at NFL Draft history, most NFL fans can point to two draft trades that stand out as over-the-top, unbalanced, and crippling for the teams who “lost.” The first such trade was the “HWT” between the Vikings and Cowboys. The trade that centered around running back Herschel Walker sent 5 players and 8 draft picks to the Cowboys in exchange for Walker and 4 picks in rounds 3 or later. The Cowboys would turn their draft picks into Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Alvin Harper, and other role players that would be a part of the Dallas rise to prominence in the 90′s.
 
The other trade, one with even more unbalanced terms, was the Saints and Redskins deal that brought Ricky Williams to New Orleans. The Saints would give up 8 picks to move up 7 places in the NFL Draft to select the Texas running back, and give the Redskins draft picks that would turn into Champ Bailey and LaVar Arrington, among others.
 
In response to trades such as these, a point value system was created to assign a value to each pick in the NFL Draft. The chart I am using can be found at Walter Football. The purpose of the chart is to assign every draft pick a value, so that in any trade, teams can be sure both sides of the trade are balanced. With some digital speculation about the Buccaneers trading out of the 13th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, let’s consider what kind of trades they could make.
 
Possibility 1: Trade with Green Bay Packers
 
Should the Green Bay Packers choose to trade up in the draft, the Buccaneers could be a trade partner. The Buccaneers could request the Packers 1st (26th overall), 2nd, and 6th round picks for the 13th overall selection. This would give the Buccaneers four picks in the top 80, which means Mark Dominik could select 2 cornerbacks, a safety, and a tight end, filling almost every key need the Buccaneers are likely to have with players in the top third of the draft.
 
Possibility 1a: Trade with the Green Bay Packers, and then with the San Francisco 49ers
 
Pick up where we left off above, and then follow the pattern set forth by Josh Hill in his article about possible Buccaneers draft trades. The Buccaneers could then offer their original 2nd round pick, along with a 4th and a 5th round selection, to the 49ers for the 31st or 32 pick, depending on the result of the Super Bowl. This would give the Buccaneers two late first round picks, which could be two corners, a corner and a safety, or any other number of combinations.
 
Possibility 2: Trade with the Dallas Cowboys
 
The drop from 13 to 26 is quite large, so if you didn’t like that idea, maybe the Buccaneers trading down to number 18 is easier to tolerate. It would equal out to just about a 3rd and a 4th to make a fair deal to move up to number 13 from number 18 for the Cowboys. If there’s a player they covet, they’re certainly the kind of team who would offer up  a proposal and give up extra draft picks in the process. The Buccaneers would then have 5 picks in rounds 3 and 4, which means plenty of ammunition to turn around and trade back into the first round, or move up a few places with their second round choices.
 

Possibility 3: Trade with the Detroit Lions
 
There are options other than trading down. The Buccaneers could move up the draft board if Dee Milliner is too good to let go. The Buccaneers could offer the Lions a 2rd and two 4th round selections for the right to move up 8 spots to number 5. This would give the Buccaneers Milliner with the 5th pick, and they would still have a third round selection to get a top 100 player. This doesn’t make sense if the Buccaneers have other needs, but if Michael Bennett re-signs, the Buccaneers snag a talented free agent corner, and Ronde Barber returns to play free safety, this may be a worthwhile option.
 
Possibility 4: Trade with the Saint Louis Rams
 
This is the possibility that I like the most, but can’t see happening. The Rams have two first round selections, gaining an additional pick from the Redskins thanks to the RGIII trade of a year ago. The Buccaneers could offer the 13th position, along with 2nd, 4th, and 5th round choices to the Rams for the 16th and 22nd picks. This would mean the Buccaneers move down 3 places in the first round, move up over 20 places from their 2nd round position, and surrender one of their 4th round choices and their only 5th round choice. This could mean Johnthan Banks and Xavier Rhodes in the same draft, or one of these corners along with Jarvis Jones, Ziggy Ansah, or a tight end. The possibilities would be endless, and the Buccaneers would likely wind up with 2 of the 20 best prospects in the draft.



http://thepewterplank.com/2013/01/31/2013-nfl-draft-nfl-draft-trading-by-the-numbers/

[The Anti-Java]

Well we know Dom likes to move around in the draft.  I don't really see a trade up, unless he falls in love with Milliner.  A trade down seems more likely, then he could still get one of.....Banks, Rhodes, Trufant , most likely.   The Niners could possibly be looking to move up to 13.   They have something like 14 picks in this draft and that is before trading Alex Smith.  But none of them are high picks, so they could be willing to move up to 13,  if they liked someone there.

[burke757]

I would take #1 depending on who is available at 13.  If the OT Fisher drops to them, or if Werner or Moore is still there, I would stay and take one of those three.  Otherwise, trade down and grab some more picks.

[Bucs N Beers]

I like #1. That gives you :
Round 1
Round 2
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 4

That's a lot of ammo to move back into round 1, move around in the 2nd, or stay put with it and get 6 good players. I like that better than reaching for a CB.

[The Anti-Java]

I would take #1 depending on who is available at 13.  If the OT Fisher drops to them, or if Werner or Moore is still there, I would stay and take one of those three.  Otherwise, trade down and grab some more picks.

Agree.   I think Dom will play it by ear, if there is a good run on QB's early, all the better.  If a great lineman falls to #13, they snag him.  If not, work the phones.

[mgchat76]

While I love the idea of trading down, I have some reservations regarding this article's info.  First, while walterfootball has lots of info and is a great resource for draft geeks, it's content should hardly be treated as gospel.  They rarely update their info and I see nothing on this draft chart which indicates how old it is.  I'm sure any trade value chart developed since the CBA differs greatly from the pre-rookie wage scale charts.  Secondly, this article doesn't identify why any of the teams mentioned would be interested in trading up.  Did the author just pick random teams, or is there a method to the madness?