Reach for need, or BPA?

[michael89156]

Star Lotulelei - Reach for need or BPA?



By Twitter on Feb 6, 4:41p



I've now read two mocks in the space of two days that have Star Lotulelei going at pick 13, the latest being Draftteks 12th 2013 Mock. Personally I'd be dancing round the streets of Stoke-on-Trent if that one came off.
 
I've also seen WalterFootball's latest mock draft have Jarvis Jones drop to 17, while another I read today had Bjorn Werner going at 15. In both of those, they had Banks going to the Bucs. Even though DE (I can't see either fitting into OLB in a 4-3 defence) isn't a position of need, I would love either of those to be in pewter and red.
 
So do we draft to cover our needs, even if it is a reach? Or do we take a chance on the BPA, especially if the unthinkable happened and an elite talent like Lotulelei fell to us at 13? I personally think we go BPA all the way.



http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/2/6/3961062/star-lotulelei-reach-for-need-or-bpa

[TampaBucks05]

For the Bucs, trade down as far as possible and draft according to what happens in FA. Almost seems like a no brainer.

[1sparkybuc]

BAP

[jerseybucsfan]

BPA in almost every possible case.

[TampaBucks05]

You only go pick BPA when its a top ten pick.

[Legend]

Star Lotulelei falling to #13 is laughable

[Benchwarmer#1]

BAP

Best **CENSORED** player?

...but sap is now in the HOF.

[yuccaneers]

I'm all for looking at BVA (Best Value Available) and or VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)...drafting BPA (Best Player Available) leads to teams drafting for need and reaching as they factor in what they need in to a players value thus ranking players at positions of need slight higher.

[dalbuc]

I'm all for looking at BVA (Best Value Available) and or VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)...drafting BPA (Best Player Available) leads to teams drafting for need and reaching as they factor in what they need in to a players value thus ranking players at positions of need slight higher.

Thank you. Value matters. How much does player X make your team better over players Y,Z? This is why no matter the grade they have on him SEA and WAS aren't drafting QB's.

In the end BPA is a mostly irrelevant idea since it is uncommon that teams have players graded far enough apart to matter. If Banks is a 8.6 on our board and Star is a 8.7 do you really think it is smart to draft Star? I've said this before BPA is a theory that deals with teams having a guy on the board in R2 they had an R1 grade or even more commonly in R5 there was a non-need guy with an R3 grade. Short of those gross disparities you likely have teams looking a a pool of players at each pick from a variety of positions with very similar grades and in that case rather than narrowly parsing grades that have little meaning you want to draft for value which has a huge element of need in it.

[CaptainStagger]

If Star, Werner, or Jones is there at 13 I'd be quite pleased. And if we took anyone else, if they are available, I'd drive to Dominick's house and piss in his pool.

[Dolorous Jason]

I was listening to scout on the radio one time and he brought up a good point. He said bpa sounds great but its somewhat of a myth. He said as you present these players to the coach and gm,  they subconsciously and naturally fall in love with the players they really need. In many cases this results in players being ranked on your board higher than they probably would be otherwise.

[yuccaneers]

I'm all for looking at BVA (Best Value Available) and or VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)...drafting BPA (Best Player Available) leads to teams drafting for need and reaching as they factor in what they need in to a players value thus ranking players at positions of need slight higher.

Thank you. Value matters. How much does player X make your team better over players Y,Z? This is why no matter the grade they have on him SEA and WAS aren't drafting QB's.

In the end BPA is a mostly irrelevant idea since it is uncommon that teams have players graded far enough apart to matter. If Banks is a 8.6 on our board and Star is a 8.7 do you really think it is smart to draft Star? I've said this before BPA is a theory that deals with teams having a guy on the board in R2 they had an R1 grade or even more commonly in R5 there was a non-need guy with an R3 grade. Short of those gross disparities you likely have teams looking a a pool of players at each pick from a variety of positions with very similar grades and in that case rather than narrowly parsing grades that have little meaning you want to draft for value which has a huge element of need in it.

I think some fans, and further more draft zealots would be surprised at how closely players are graded from one position to another. Once teams vertically ( by position) and then horizontally (across different positions) stack their respective draft boards. Typically this is where the Scouting Combine, Pro Days & Private Workouts come in to play to help determine after hours of film study the logjam of players in both the vertical and horizontal stacks comes from, that and of course to confirm or debunk what is seen on tape...

[blind melon]

They are going to target their guys and move to get them in the first four rounds. That has become the Dominik/Schiano standard.

My guess is these guys won't reach in the draft, although it's a lot cheaper to do so now.

[yuccaneers]

They are going to target their guys and move to get them in the first four rounds. That has become the Dominik/Schiano standard.

My guess is these guys won't reach in the draft, although it's a lot cheaper to do so now.

While it happened, this past draft. I'm not so sure it necessarily makes it a trend.

[NotDeadYet]

    There is naturally some degree of subjectivity in player evaluation. What a player does real well may be of greater value to one team than to another team. Or a player's weaknesses may devalue him more in one team's eyes than in another. Different teams rate a players attributes differently; for instance, speed versus size, or quickness vs strength, etc...
    BPA based on a team's rating system shoud apply early in the draft. Teams will gamble on the magical 'potential' though. Daquan Bowers was a gamble due to known serious injuries, but Dom made the call the risk was worth the potential reward...