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dalbuc

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#45 : February 22, 2013, 07:59:59 AM

"This isn't track. Its football. Its a game of angles and transitional movements when you really break it down. Players in full gear are asked to stop, start and change direction with a violent burst of speed.

The 40 doesn't measure that. It never will. But I guarantee it is the one drill we all will be talking about once the numbers start to post in Indianapolis."


+1

Guy do run long distance on teams and all the skill players might have to on a play that is going really well or really badly. Again, they run it for a reason.  They have other drills that measure change of direction and explosion. I wish more attention was given to the 10 and 20 splits which down in a down out likely have more bearing on "football speed".

You can talk about tape but tape can lie as badly as the underwear olympics do. You have no idea how fast those guys he is running away from are. I look fast on tape vs my sons' 4th grade class.

Everything is a tool and all of it becomes a part of the overall analysis.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

Dolorous Jason

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#46 : February 22, 2013, 08:04:36 AM

"This isn't track. Its football. Its a game of angles and transitional movements when you really break it down. Players in full gear are asked to stop, start and change direction with a violent burst of speed.

The 40 doesn't measure that. It never will. But I guarantee it is the one drill we all will be talking about once the numbers start to post in Indianapolis."


+1

Guy do run long distance on teams and all the skill players might have to on a play that is going really well or really badly. Again, they run it for a reason.  They have other drills that measure change of direction and explosion. I wish more attention was given to the 10 and 20 splits which down in a down out likely have more bearing on "football speed".

You can talk about tape but tape can lie as badly as the underwear olympics do. You have no idea how fast those guys he is running away from are. I look fast on tape vs my sons' 4th grade class.

Everything is a tool and all of it becomes a part of the overall analysis.

Exactly . Some guys are fast enough to get it done on the college level ,  playmakers who look great on tape , but thier speed doesn't translate to the next level.  Someone like Alan Zematis comes to mind.

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

BucNY

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#47 : February 22, 2013, 08:28:11 AM

No one is saying speed doesn't matter, it's extremely important. What the smarter people on this board are saying is that watching a guy run a straight line 40 in spandex and track shoes in not a good indicator of how fast he plays in the game or how much ground he can cover while being chased in full pads holding a football.

I'm saying, some are saying, the 40 is just not a good indicator of that speed and thus should not sway your thoughts on a player. Dom has is right, so i'm happy.

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Dolorous Jason

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#48 : February 22, 2013, 08:35:21 AM

I guess that's why the NFL continues to use the 40 and make all prospects run it... because they aren't as smart as the smart people on this message board. LOL

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dalbuc

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#49 : February 22, 2013, 09:00:25 AM

No one is saying speed doesn't matter, it's extremely important. What the smarter people on this board are saying is that watching a guy run a straight line 40 in spandex and track shoes in not a good indicator of how fast he plays in the game or how much ground he can cover while being chased in full pads holding a football.

I'm saying, some are saying, the 40 is just not a good indicator of that speed and thus should not sway your thoughts on a player. Dom has is right, so i'm happy.

It is a good indicator of speed. It isn't 1:1 to football speed but it provides a baseline. It is no different than using an SAT instead of high school GPA or class rank. SAT is a measure of academic readiness but it isn't a full measure.

What "smart" people are basically saying is that we have an additional data point to review but we want to ignore it. Sounds pretty flippin' stupid for smart people.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

BucNY

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#50 : February 22, 2013, 10:27:22 AM

No one is saying speed doesn't matter, it's extremely important. What the smarter people on this board are saying is that watching a guy run a straight line 40 in spandex and track shoes in not a good indicator of how fast he plays in the game or how much ground he can cover while being chased in full pads holding a football.

I'm saying, some are saying, the 40 is just not a good indicator of that speed and thus should not sway your thoughts on a player. Dom has is right, so i'm happy.

It is a good indicator of speed. It isn't 1:1 to football speed but it provides a baseline. It is no different than using an SAT instead of high school GPA or class rank. SAT is a measure of academic readiness but it isn't a full measure.

What "smart" people are basically saying is that we have an additional data point to review but we want to ignore it. Sounds pretty flippin' stupid for smart people.

You really don't have additional data though. Everything you need to know about the guy is on tape. How strong he is, how fast he is ect.... Watching a guy bench press or run in shorts doesn't change what he put on tape. It's a show for the fans and besides the interviews should provide very little extra information about a prospect.

If you saw a CB who consistently got burned on a deep ball, didn't show he has the quickness to cover short routes and didn't appear to be able to catch up on deep routes he guess wrong on. Would it matter to you if he ran a 4.3? It sure as hell shouldn't.

That's my biggest gripe. The combine doesn't change anything about what happened during the season 4 months ago.
: February 22, 2013, 10:29:08 AM BucNY

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dalbuc

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#51 : February 22, 2013, 11:09:06 AM

You really don't have additional data though. Everything you need to know about the guy is on tape. How strong he is, how fast he is ect.... Watching a guy bench press or run in shorts doesn't change what he put on tape. It's a show for the fans and besides the interviews should provide very little extra information about a prospect.

If you saw a CB who consistently got burned on a deep ball, didn't show he has the quickness to cover short routes and didn't appear to be able to catch up on deep routes he guess wrong on. Would it matter to you if he ran a 4.3? It sure as hell shouldn't.

That's my biggest gripe. The combine doesn't change anything about what happened during the season 4 months ago.

Strawman much? Of course no one is gonna look at a guy who sucks (other than Darth Al) no matter how fast he runs. Plenty of guys will burn up the track and not get drafted very high or at all because they lack the tools to play the game.

You and all the other "smart" guys have this backwards. You don't see a guy who sucks but runs well and draft him, it is more about seeing if the things you see on tape are confirmed by the turf. There's almost no reason for good on the field not to translate to good on the turf (spare me the Jerry Rice myth, dude ran a 4.45 per Gil Brandt). It doesn't mean you have to be the best ever but like one of the former GM's was saying you want to know he is in the "normal" range for what a guy does. Put another way if Xavier Rhodes runs a 4.7 40 and there are questions about his speed on the tape and now you have confirmation doesn't that make you more confident about your decisions and evaluations? If, OTOH, he blazes a 4.45 he's not a guy who will magically be a top 10 pick but it makes you look at why he doesn't show fast on tape.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

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#52 : February 22, 2013, 12:22:03 PM

You really don't have additional data though. Everything you need to know about the guy is on tape. How strong he is, how fast he is ect.... Watching a guy bench press or run in shorts doesn't change what he put on tape. It's a show for the fans and besides the interviews should provide very little extra information about a prospect.

If you saw a CB who consistently got burned on a deep ball, didn't show he has the quickness to cover short routes and didn't appear to be able to catch up on deep routes he guess wrong on. Would it matter to you if he ran a 4.3? It sure as hell shouldn't.

That's my biggest gripe. The combine doesn't change anything about what happened during the season 4 months ago.

Strawman much? Of course no one is gonna look at a guy who sucks (other than Darth Al) no matter how fast he runs. Plenty of guys will burn up the track and not get drafted very high or at all because they lack the tools to play the game.

You and all the other "smart" guys have this backwards. You don't see a guy who sucks but runs well and draft him, it is more about seeing if the things you see on tape are confirmed by the turf. There's almost no reason for good on the field not to translate to good on the turf (spare me the Jerry Rice myth, dude ran a 4.45 per Gil Brandt). It doesn't mean you have to be the best ever but like one of the former GM's was saying you want to know he is in the "normal" range for what a guy does. Put another way if Xavier Rhodes runs a 4.7 40 and there are questions about his speed on the tape and now you have confirmation doesn't that make you more confident about your decisions and evaluations? If, OTOH, he blazes a 4.45 he's not a guy who will magically be a top 10 pick but it makes you look at why he doesn't show fast on tape.

Amen.

I believe that most of what you need is on film, but there are valuable things to be learned at the combine. Whether people like it or not, the guys with good numbers on lots of these things tend to be in the league. It shouldn't replace the football judgment, it should supplement it.

A very good JuCo player is going to look fast on film, because film is relative.

Another example - let's say you have a player who looks a little slow on film, but has some correctable technique flaws. Is he slow because of those flaws, or is he just a slow guy who also has technique flaws? I also suspect that some athletic limitations - not so much the 40, but things like flexibility (knee bend v. waist bend, e.g.) are harder to hide in shorts and t-shirts.

I've yet to hear a single person argue that the combine should trump everything else, so can we knock of the "smarter" stuff?

BucNY

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#53 : February 22, 2013, 12:28:59 PM

The combine is for the fans as much as anything else. 40 times don't always translate to the field and reverse. I'll continue to say this and I believe it wholeheartedly. Beware the prospect that jumps up the boards AFTER having a monster combine.

You want me to be impressed with speed? Show me a screen pass where the WR catches it and outruns the guys chasing from behind, show me a play where defenders had an angle on you and you ran past it, don't show me a video of you on a track in shorts.

As I said, speed is important, but I'll be damned if I'm going to flip my board on it's ear because someone ran a fast 40 time or bench pressed alot.

We all talk about the FSU corner. He 40 is so important, BS. I've watched him cover the seem route and stay with the receiver and in position. We can watch him at all star games doing the same against top level competition. That's what I need to know, not how fast the 40 time is.

How's Dontay Moch treating everyone? Who? Yeah, exactly what I thought. He is a perfect example of a guy who shot up boards because he was big, fast and strong and not because he put up great tape.

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#54 : February 22, 2013, 12:34:58 PM

Mike Mamula says the combine is the most important reason why "smart" GMs draft guys like him.


dalbuc

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#55 : February 22, 2013, 01:06:51 PM

Mike Mamula says the combine is the most important reason why "smart" GMs draft guys like him.

His 17 sacks the prior year at BC is why he got drafted.  He's more a cautionary myth (like the Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 lie) than a real workout warrior. Again, other than Al Davis no one uses the combine in the stupid way "smart" people think the combine is used. 

I doubt the combined based on what you hear from scouts and GM moves guys up as much as it might move them down -- if a guy just flubs the physical measurable s or blows the interviews.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

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#56 : February 22, 2013, 01:07:27 PM

What boards are you talking about, BucNY? The Kiper boards? The real boards are a different animal and the reality is nobody knows what's on them, or when players move up or down them.

Boid, correct me if I"m wrong, but weren't you one of the posters who was up in arms about McCoy's bench-press numbers? So does the combine matter or doesn't it?

For all the film doesn't lie folks, explain Ali Highsmith to me.

dalbuc

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#57 : February 22, 2013, 01:13:26 PM

The combine is for the fans as much as anything else. 40 times don't always translate to the field and reverse. I'll continue to say this and I believe it wholeheartedly. Beware the prospect that jumps up the boards AFTER having a monster combine.

You want me to be impressed with speed? Show me a screen pass where the WR catches it and outruns the guys chasing from behind, show me a play where defenders had an angle on you and you ran past it, don't show me a video of you on a track in shorts.

As I said, speed is important, but I'll be damned if I'm going to flip my board on it's ear because someone ran a fast 40 time or bench pressed alot.

We all talk about the FSU corner. He 40 is so important, BS. I've watched him cover the seem route and stay with the receiver and in position. We can watch him at all star games doing the same against top level competition. That's what I need to know, not how fast the 40 time is.

How's Dontay Moch treating everyone? Who? Yeah, exactly what I thought. He is a perfect example of a guy who shot up boards because he was big, fast and strong and not because he put up great tape.

how fast are the guys that WR ran away from? He looks fast but a 4.6 guy can look fast running away from 4.7 and 4.8 men. Doesn't make him NfL fast.

As for Mooch, the dude was insanely productive in college. His film was sterling. He was downgraded because people looked at his film and said NFL film, WAC measurables. His measurables seemed to confirm that his NFL film was "real".  Plus, he went in R3 I'm not sure that is epically over what he was projected to. 

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

acacius

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#58 : February 22, 2013, 01:18:17 PM

The combine is for the fans as much as anything else.
The NFL's been holding the combine since 1982.  That's *long* before the offseason became the spectator sport that it is today.  Like it or not, it's something that NFL scouts clearly do care about.

Quote
How's Dontay Moch treating everyone? Who? Yeah, exactly what I thought. He is a perfect example of a guy who shot up boards because he was big, fast and strong and not because he put up great tape.
How's Chris Johnson treating the Titans?  Drafting is a hideously inexact science.  More data is a good thing, but there are never any guarantees.

acacius

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#59 : February 22, 2013, 01:21:25 PM

Mike Mamula says the combine is the most important reason why "smart" GMs draft guys like him.

His 17 sacks the prior year at BC is why he got drafted.  He's more a cautionary myth (like the Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 lie) than a real workout warrior. Again, other than Al Davis no one uses the combine in the stupid way "smart" people think the combine is used. 

I doubt the combined based on what you hear from scouts and GM moves guys up as much as it might move them down -- if a guy just flubs the physical measurable s or blows the interviews.
And as is always worth noting, he was actually a pretty good player in the NFL.  Had he been able to avoid injuries, there's every chance that he would have had a fine NFL career that would have only seemed poor in comparison with Sapp's.  As was, he still had a better career than Derrick Alexander, who may very well have been the actual alternative choice for the Eagles.
: February 22, 2013, 01:24:26 PM acacius
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