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Feel Real Good

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« : February 28, 2013, 09:41:39 AM »

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Scouting The 2013 NFL Draft: Ranking the Running Backs

When it comes to the NFL Combine, the 40-yard dash is the main event. As with the 100m dash in the Olympics, everyone wants to see who the fastest player available is. Millions of dollars have been earned and lost by a good or poor time, respectively. Certain teams like the Oakland Raiders have based their drafting philosophies off of speedsters. However, such philosophies generally fail, as the 40-yard dash is a poor predictor of future performance.
Introducing, the Speed Score.

The Speed Score is not a new measurement. In fact, here is a description of it provided by Football Outsiders:

Fully introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 by Bill Barnwell, a system for projecting the success of college running backs entering the NFL. Combines a player's weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average. Formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4).

All 40-yard dashes are not created equal. If a 170lb scatback runs a 4.3 40, that's difficult to compare it to the 4.7 the 245lb bulldozer ran. You can't weigh a 40-time too heavily, either positively or negatively, without putting it in context. That's where the Speed Score comes in. As the block quote above says, it is generally ranked from 80 to 120, with 100 being the average. There's a high correlation between a higher score and a successful NFL career, although of course there are numerous other factors to consider (including work ethic, usage, injuries, etc.). For example, Bo Jackson scored a 149.5. Eric **CENSORED**erson scored a 112.2. Barry Sanders scored a 110.6. According to Football Outsiders, there have been only four running backs since 1999 with Speed Scores under 95 to become viable starting backs, including Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Darren Sproles).

The measurements from the 2013 Combine are in, and we can now calculate the Speed Score of the running backs and project their NFL futures. So without further ado, here are the rankings:

Knile Davis: 227 lbs, 4.37, 124.49
Mike James: 223 lbs, 4.53, 105.91
Christine Michael: 220 lbs, 4.54, 103.57
Matthew Tucker: 221 lbs, 4.55, 103.13
Le'Veon Bell: 230 lbs, 4.60, 102.74
Michael Ford: 210 lbs, 4.50, 102.42
D.J. Harper: 211 lbs, 4.52, 101.10
Johnathan Franklin: 205 lbs, 4.49, 100.88
Zac Stacy: 216 lbs, 4.55, 100.79
C.J. Anderson: 224 lbs, 4.60, 100.06
Cierre Wood: 213 lbs, 4.56, 98.53
Mike Gillislee: 208 lbs, 4.55, 97.06
Kerwynn Williams: 195 lbs, 4.48, 96.82
Giovani Bernard: 202 lbs, 4.53, 95.94
Onterio McCalebb: 168 lbs, 4.34, 94.71
Braden Wilson: 251 lbs, 4.81, 93.78
Kenjon Barner: 196 lbs, 4.53, 93.09
Lonnie Pryor: 227 lbs, 4.70, 93.04
Montee Ball: 214 lbs, 4.66, 90.76
Zach Line: 232 lbs, 4.77, 89.63
Stefphon Jefferson: 213 lbs, 4.68, 88.80
Joseph Randle: 204 lbs, 4.63, 88.78
Andre Ellington: 199 lbs, 4.61, 88.12
Tommy Bohanon: 246 lbs, 4.88, 86.75
Montel Harris: 208 lbs, 4.68, 86.72
George Winn: 218 lbs, 4.75, 85.65
Rex Burkhead: 214 lbs, 4.73, 85.51
Jawan Jamison: 203 lbs, 4.68, 84.63
Theo Rid**CENSORED**: 201 lbs, 4.68, 83.80
Stepfan Taylor: 214 lbs, 4.76, 83.37
Zach Boren: 238 lbs, 5.00, 76.16
Ray Graham: 199 lbs, 4.80, 74.98
Robbie Rouse: 190 lbs, 4.80, 71.58

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2013/2/24/4025752/scouting-the-2013-nfl-draft-ranking-the-running-backs

For anyone who cares, Doug Martin had a speed score of 104.1 last year.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

3rd String Kicker

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« #1 : February 28, 2013, 10:00:45 AM »

Thanks for sharing FRG, interesting formula. Davis runs a solid 40 for a guy almost 230.

Sweep

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« #2 : February 28, 2013, 10:05:14 AM »

Interesting, FRG.  Thanks.    Bucs need another RB 220 lbs+, with power.

It’s going to look to some people like a different play every time we use it, but pretty soon they’ll be able to recognize it....by watching the official for the first-down signal.   -Vincent T. Lombardi

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« #3 : February 28, 2013, 10:07:33 AM »

I'm interested to see if Gio Bernard can transfer his skills to the NFL.  He is only a Soph and has been hurt a few times in college.  I wonder if he will stay 202 lbs or try to put a few extra pounds on to take those hits.  Kid is lightning every time he gets the ball though. 

blind melon

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« #4 : February 28, 2013, 10:09:05 AM »

I am still saying Johnathan Franklin is going to be a hella RB come the 2013/14 season...

Where is he expected to be picked?

Who knew how good it would feel as a fan when we now know what it\'s like for our team to have a direction, an attitude, and dare I say an offense?.  

Good time to be a Bucs fan.

Biggs3535

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« #5 : February 28, 2013, 10:43:33 AM »

Mike James, Mike Gillislee, and Zac Stacy did very well for themselves at the combine, moving from late-rounders to early/mid rounders.


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« #6 : February 28, 2013, 11:46:06 AM »

Really like the "tape" of both Knile Davis and Mike James.

It’s going to look to some people like a different play every time we use it, but pretty soon they’ll be able to recognize it....by watching the official for the first-down signal.   -Vincent T. Lombardi

JDouble

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« #7 : February 28, 2013, 02:34:47 PM »

I like Mike James a lot as a late round flyer. Wouldn't get too carried away and take him in the mid rounds, but he has a lot of potential. Could be a steal in the 6th or 7th. I think he is a better receiver than he is a runner.
« : February 28, 2013, 02:41:38 PM JDouble »


STULAAKE

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« #8 : February 28, 2013, 03:42:23 PM »

Thanks FRG for posting...

Would be curious to know what was Doug Martin's speed score?

You must be accountable for your actions!

JDouble

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« #9 : February 28, 2013, 03:56:03 PM »

Thanks FRG for posting...

Would be curious to know what was Doug Martin's speed score?

If it is only taking into account weight and 40 time, it would be almost identical to  Mike James'


Feel Real Good

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« #10 : February 28, 2013, 04:16:56 PM »

Thanks FRG for posting...

Would be curious to know what was Doug Martin's speed score?
For anyone who cares, Doug Martin had a speed score of 104.1 last year.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

youngone

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« #11 : February 28, 2013, 08:23:07 PM »

I always thought Andre Ellington was a burner. Kinda surprising to me that he didn't run well.
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