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chace1986

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#30 : March 22, 2013, 04:04:44 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.

Don't need a degree in rocket surgery to figure that one out.


Until preseason, you stay classy Red Board.

TBayXXXVII

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#31 : March 22, 2013, 04:18:35 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.

Don't need a degree in rocket surgery to figure that one out.

Hey, the Freepologists need something to hang their hats on.

XFactor

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#32 : March 22, 2013, 04:34:16 PM

Someone asked for it in another thread so here it is. No subjectivity, just the stats.

1. Freeman was by far and away better during his 1st 10 attempts with a passer rating above 100 and a completion percentage above 64%. A Fast starter, not something we would have guess.
2. Freeman was by far and away worst during his his 11-20 attempts with a passer rating of 58.3 and a completion percentage of 46%. These attempts are mostly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
3. Freeman was by far and away best in the redzone, when compared to other spots on the field, with a passer rating above 100 and tossing 20 TDs to only 1 interception.
4. Freeman was only slightly better in the 2nd half compared to the first half with passer ratings of 80.0 compared to 81.2
5. When the game is tied, Freeman had a whooping 103.6 passer rating
6. When the bucs are down by one score, Freeman had his second highest passer rating of 91.6.
7. Freeman's worst passer rating comes when the Bucs are ahead by 2-3 scores, posted at a 59.2
8. Freeman was by far best in the 1st Quarter with a passer rating of 91.9
9. Freeman was by far worst in the 2nd Quarter with a passer rating of 67.9


Okay folks, read these and think. What do these stats tell you about big ol' #5?

Here's some situational stats for you.  Here are Freeman's numbers in games started only vs teams with winning records compared to non-winning records (just to be clear, 8-8 is considered a non-winning record)
                                                 Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (27 games): 537-927 / 57.9% / 6,026 / 33 / 34 / 74.03 / 6.50 / 5.56
Opponents < .500 (29 games): 562-942 / 59.7% / 6,921 / 45 / 29 / 85.51 / 7.35 / 6.29


For comparisons sake... Jay Cutler.  Some have said Freeman is better than him, others have said they were similar, the rest (including me), have said Cutler was better.
                                              Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (43 games): 800-1,339 / 59.7% /  9,147 / 59 / 56 / 77.60 / 6.83 / 5.83
Opponents < .500 (50 games): 996-1,616 / 61.6% / 12,169 / 77 / 44 / 89.36 / 7.55 / 7.26


Too many games?  You want Cutler's first 56 starts?
                                           Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (26 games): 520-848 / 61.3% / 5,778 / 38 / 36 / 78.82 / 6.81 / 5.80
Opponents < .500 (30 games): 638-1,108 / 62.7% / 7,782 / 49 / 29 / 90.34 / 7.64 / 7.33
To note, the same team records that Freeman set, Cutler's numbers would have accomplished the same... possibly more. Also keep in mind that the rule changes that really helped QB's numbers out, really didn't impact the league until 2008, so Cutler's first 21 games didn't have the same advantage Freeman did.


How about we compare the last 56 games so that the time frames are the same?
                                           Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (28 games): 517-883 / 58.6% / 5,917 / 39 / 40 / 74.64 / 6.70 / 5.55
Opponents < .500 (28 games): 517-852 / 50.7% / 6,375 / 43 / 23 / 89.40 / 7.48 / 7.28


How about we look at a guy who was drafted the same year?  How about Matt Stafford?
                                           Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (23 games): 569-977 / 58.2% / 6,432 / 33 / 27 / 77.79 / 6.58 / 6.02
Opponents < .500 (22 games): 545-886 / 61.5% / 6,375 / 47 / 27 / 88.31 / 7.20 / 6.88


Across the board, both Cutler and Stafford have better numbers vs good and bad teams than Freeman.  For the record, Stafford's numbers would be Buccaneer team records as well... and he'd have done it in 11 less starts.

Personally, I don't know your stance on either Cutler or Stafford, but reguardless of what they are... as you can see that both are/have been better.

I dont know where to get the fancy stats just out of curiosity can you compare Freeman and Flacco? Freeman is often compared to Flacco with style of play think it would make for a better comparison. Thanks.


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#33 : March 22, 2013, 05:09:29 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.

Don't need a degree in rocket surgery to figure that one out.

Hey, the Freepologists need something to hang their hats on.

While I don't like to play the "if you ignore these stats" game -- that's a Freepologist thing -- it is instructive to take a look at these.  13 TD to one int when he plays the worst defenses -- "feasting on cupcakes" was the line used about him coming out of college.  For the rest of the year he was pretty awful 13:1 in those five games looked great.  Unfortunately in the other eleven games he was 14:16, which is just horrific.  Obviously you can't take stats away but those five games really skewed his stat line for the positive.

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#34 : March 22, 2013, 05:15:28 PM

Thinking about it more, I found a really interesting little "fun with stats" thing.

For those of us critical of Josh, those great stat line games are the fluke.  For his defenders the flukes are the two 4 INT games (they seem to think he played well in every other game). If you take out the games that seem flukey to the "haters" and the ones that seem flukey to the apologists, you get just under half a season where he is 13:8.  Project that into a full season and you get 26:16.  Which is essentially what he was last season (27:17)

Make of that what you will.

Feel Real Good

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#35 : March 22, 2013, 05:56:05 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.
How exactly is it true "competition" whenever Freeman has to go up against a good defense and the opposing QB gets to go against the Bucs defense? If Freeman and the opposing QB are the exact same quality of player, most of the time the opposing QB is going to have the better day.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#36 : March 22, 2013, 07:10:15 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.
How exactly is it true "competition" whenever Freeman has to go up against a good defense and the opposing QB gets to go against the Bucs defense? If Freeman and the opposing QB are the exact same quality of player, most of the time the opposing QB is going to have the better day.

What the hell does the opposing QB have to do with Josh's performance?  Absolutely nothing, why the hell do you constantly try to bring the defense into things when we are talking about Josh's performance? 

Josh plays poorly against decent defenses.  Period.  Forget about the score, forget about the win or loss, just look at his freaking play.  HIS play. 

chace1986

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#37 : March 22, 2013, 07:34:01 PM

Look just at Freeman's play??

Kill the heretic.


Until preseason, you stay classy Red Board.

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#38 : March 22, 2013, 08:32:02 PM

tells me hes inconsistent.

the fact that his worst passing is with a lead is kind of odd. i do recall the playcalls being a bit odd when we were leading, too conservative and too easy to read. hes a bomber, not a dunker

to me his best throws are deep balls.

Not so much "best". Most effective maybe but that is more about the guys catching it than the dude throwing it.

thats not really fair to freeman. he has to place the ball for them to get it. its 60/40 in favor of freeman. if he cant get the ball near them then they cant catch it. the qb has the most responsibility in placing the ball where a WR can catch and run. having a guy like vincent jackson definately helps though

His passes are usually not of the catch it and run type.  He's tossing crap up fornVjax and MW19 to adjust to and get. Yes hebhasnto get the ball there but a lot of guys with big arms can get in the neighborhood.

you are generalizing. There are a lot of good accurate deep passes. I know there are periods of where he can't hit the broad side of a barn. But there are times where he threads the needle, so to speak.


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#39 : March 23, 2013, 10:03:37 AM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.
How exactly is it true "competition" whenever Freeman has to go up against a good defense and the opposing QB gets to go against the Bucs defense? If Freeman and the opposing QB are the exact same quality of player, most of the time the opposing QB is going to have the better day.

What the hell does the opposing QB have to do with Josh's performance?  Absolutely nothing, why the hell do you constantly try to bring the defense into things when we are talking about Josh's performance? 

Josh plays poorly against decent defenses.  Period.  Forget about the score, forget about the win or loss, just look at his freaking play.  HIS play.
So do most players. Good defenses aren't good defenses because they give up a lot of yards and points. How did Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk look against the Bucs back in the day? Not as good as they looked against the lesser defenses. You're not going to play great every game. So you need other players to help pick things up.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#40 : March 23, 2013, 02:14:29 PM


What the hell does the opposing QB have to do with Josh's performance?  Absolutely nothing, why the hell do you constantly try to bring the defense into things when we are talking about Josh's performance? 

Josh plays poorly against decent defenses.  Period.  Forget about the score, forget about the win or loss, just look at his freaking play.  HIS play.

And this is the whole problem. Football is a TEAM sport. You can praise Flacco for having 'outplayed' Brady in the AFCCG, but its still BS. You can cry about being labeled a 'Freeman hater', which i did not, but its not about just being a 'hater', no the problem is just focusing on Freeman, I do not care a bit about Freeman, if there is a better QB available... say goodbye to #5. Its about the TEAM. Having some kind of help by the bucs defense, f/e being average instead of dead last, would help THIS TEAM. And this what i care about. If Tebow improves our team, great, even if its just by making use of the draft picks of a Freeman trade.

But if you just want to talk about QB, you will lose sight of the rest of the team. Funny how the elite QBs, Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, just have won twice in the so called offense driven league since 2004. One needed a bucs TE to draw an BS PI just to make it into the POs. The roller coaster ones, running hot from time to time, assisted by a good defense, Eli, Flacco, Big Ben 'ruled' the NFL during those years. Apparently the years of guys like Brad Johnson or Dilfer winning SBs might be over. So we better make sure we do not have a totally useless QB on our team. But yeah, starting all over again is our best chance, right? Our 40 years looking for a franchised QB is well documented by Freeman breaking all our franchise 'records', which does not show Freemans greatness, it shows how much the alternatives suck, which includes multiple SB winning QBs.

How many game did we win DESPITE Freeman? I recall zero. Pretty much our only chance to win game is by having a good day on offense. If we struggle on offense, which happens from time to time, nothing new, even to the all time greats, we have zero chance on winning right now.

Again, its about the TEAM, nothing else.

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#41 : March 23, 2013, 02:20:04 PM


What the hell does the opposing QB have to do with Josh's performance?  Absolutely nothing, why the hell do you constantly try to bring the defense into things when we are talking about Josh's performance? 

Josh plays poorly against decent defenses.  Period.  Forget about the score, forget about the win or loss, just look at his freaking play.  HIS play.

And this is the whole problem. Football is a TEAM sport. You can praise Flacco for having 'outplayed' Brady in the AFCCG, but its still BS. You can cry about being labeled a 'Freeman hater', which i did not, but its not about just being a 'hater', no the problem is just focusing on Freeman, I do not care a bit about Freeman, if there is a better QB available... say goodbye to #5. Its about the TEAM. Having some kind of help by the bucs defense, f/e being average instead of dead last, would help THIS TEAM. And this what i care about. If Tebow improves our team, great, even if its just by making use of the draft picks of a Freeman trade.

But if you just want to talk about QB, you will lose sight of the rest of the team. Funny how the elite QBs, Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, just have won twice in the so called offense driven league since 2004. One needed a bucs TE to draw an BS PI just to make it into the POs. The roller coaster ones, running hot from time to time, assisted by a good defense, Eli, Flacco, Big Ben 'ruled' the NFL during those years. Apparently the years of guys like Brad Johnson or Dilfer winning SBs might be over. So we better make sure we do not have a totally useless QB on our team. But yeah, starting all over again is our best chance, right? Our 40 years looking for a franchised QB is well documented by Freeman breaking all our franchise 'records', which does not show Freemans greatness, it shows how much the alternatives suck, which includes multiple SB winning QBs.

How many game did we win DESPITE Freeman? I recall zero. Pretty much our only chance to win game is by having a good day on offense. If we struggle on offense, which happens from time to time, nothing new, even to the all time greats, we have zero chance on winning right now.

Again, its about the TEAM, nothing else.

Nice post. Forgot about the Lions game we got hosed out of. Weak schedule but that was a great year for Freeman, shame we got screwed out of the playoffs. Perception of Freeman would be a lot different.
: March 23, 2013, 02:25:06 PM XFactor


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#42 : March 23, 2013, 02:30:10 PM

And from the Bureau of Depressing Stats:

32, 30, 28, 25, 19  <---- Defensive ranking (by QBR) of the teams that Josh had his 100+ QBR games against in 2012.

Wonder if that is coincidence or correlation...
So bad defenses give up a lot of yards and points and good defenses don't give up a lot of yards and points? Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah, a real breakthrough.

Yeah, we already know that Freeman can't excel and raise his game to the level of the competition.  Nothing to see here.
How exactly is it true "competition" whenever Freeman has to go up against a good defense and the opposing QB gets to go against the Bucs defense? If Freeman and the opposing QB are the exact same quality of player, most of the time the opposing QB is going to have the better day.

What the hell does the opposing QB have to do with Josh's performance?  Absolutely nothing, why the hell do you constantly try to bring the defense into things when we are talking about Josh's performance? 

Josh plays poorly against decent defenses.  Period.  Forget about the score, forget about the win or loss, just look at his freaking play.  HIS play.

Because when you're constantly playing from behind you'll be constantly passing and the defense knows it. This shouldn't be a difficult concept to grasp.


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#43 : March 23, 2013, 03:32:46 PM

Lol that we got cheated out of the Lions game. Such f*cking BS. Bucs lost that game. Lions won. Period. In the scope of the entire game, the refs had little to do with the outcome.

Right after that play they took the lead with 9 minutes and change left in the game.


Until preseason, you stay classy Red Board.

TBayXXXVII

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#44 : March 25, 2013, 10:05:22 AM

I dont know where to get the fancy stats just out of curiosity can you compare Freeman and Flacco? Freeman is often compared to Flacco with style of play think it would make for a better comparison. Thanks.

I did it in Excel.

FREEMAN                                      Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (27 games): 537-927 / 57.9% / 6,026 / 33 / 34 / 74.03 / 6.50 / 5.56
Opponents < .500 (29 games): 562-942 / 59.7% / 6,921 / 45 / 29 / 85.51 / 7.35 / 6.29

FLACCO (Career)                         Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (38 games): 732-1,199 / 61.1% / 8,422 / 50 / 33 / 84.66 / 7.02 / 6.62
Opponents < .500 (42 games): 775-1,290 / 60.1% / 9,211 / 52 / 23 / 87.91 / 7.14 / 7.14

FLACCO (First 56 starts)            Com-Att / Comp % / Yds / TD / INT / Rating / Y/A / AY/A
Opponents > .500 (28 games): 550-914 / 60.2% / 6,254 / 33 / 27 / 80.47 / 6.84 / 6.24
Opponents < .500 (28 games): 497-811 / 61.3% / 6,003 / 36 / 13 / 92.11 / 7.40 / 7.57
: March 25, 2013, 10:06:57 AM TBayXXXVII
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