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Feel Real Good

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« : March 26, 2013, 02:07:13 PM »

Quote from: Chase Stuart
The best drafting teams from 2000 to 2007

In this post I derived the expected value of the contribution of each draft slot based on Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Approximate Value system. You can see the full draft chart here. Once you know what the expected value is for a draft pick, the next step to grading a draft pick is to measure how much actual value was provided. As before, I used the marginal Approximate Value generated by each player in each of his first five years, with the caveat that a player is only credited for his AV after his first two points of AV. Using that formula, Patrick Willis, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Maurice Jones-Drew come in as the three most valuable picks over that time period.

Since 2000, the team with the most amount of draft value in terms of picks was the 2002 Texans. Houston not only received the first pick in each round that year, but the expansion Texans were given several supplemental draft picks as well. The 2007 Raiders and 2000 Browns tied for the second mount amount of value in terms of raw draft picks, but both of those teams wound up with many more whiffs than hits.

The table below lists the best drafting teams from 2000 to 2007. I’ve also broken out each team’s AV above expectation for each year. If you click on any of the values in the columns from 2000 to 2007, you can see the players drafted by the team that year.

1. San Diego: 197
2. Indianapolis: 196.6
3. Jacksonville: 179.4
4. New England: 175.8
5. Green Bay: 131.4
6. Pittsburgh: 120.6
7. Baltimore: 97.2
8. Dallas: 94.9
9. Carolina: 87.8
10. Philadelphia: 80.8
11. New York Giants: 80.5
12. Chicago: 79.9
13. New Orleans: 78.7
14. New York Jets: 65.7
15. Atlanta: 61.8
16. Tennessee: 57.7
17. Seattle: 55.8
18. Buffalo: 47.1
19. Denver 33.4
20. Washington: 23.0
21. Cincinnati: 14.9
22. Houston: 5.8
23. San Francisco: 3.6
24. Miami: 2.6
25. Kansas City: -11.6
26. Minnesota: -34.8
27. Tampa Bay: -49.9
28. Arizona: -51.4
29. St. Louis: -60.1
30. Cleveland: -99.2
31. Oakland: -100.9
32. Detroit: -112.3

The best year — both in overall value and in value above expectation — came from the 2005 Dallas Cowboys, when they drafted DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Kevin Burnett, Marion Barber, Chris Canty, and Jay Ratliff — giving them an incredible haul of starters, Pro Bowlers, and All-Pros.

It’s not hard to see why the Chargers fare so well here — they drafted LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees (who had two big years in SD) in 2001, and then were outstanding in 2004 (Philip Rivers1, Igor Olshansky, Nick Hardwick, Shaun Phillips, Michael Turner – and that doesn’t even include Nate Kaeding), 2005 (Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles) and 2006 (Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeill, Jeromey Clary). And that doesn’t include picking up Antonio Gates as an undrafted free agent. Had they been able to keep all that talent (and had better coaching), they probably would have won a Super Bowl, but they did post the 5th most wins from 2002 to 2010.

The Lions have had years of bad drafts, but the 2005 one stands out as their worst. They grabbed Mike Williams with the 10th overall pick, and he had 449 yards and 2 touchdowns in two years. With the 37th pick they went back to USC and selected Shaun Cody, who started just 12 games in four years for Detroit. With a top-ten pick in the third, they drafted CB Stanley Wilson from Stanford two spots ahead of where the Giants grabbed Justin Tuck. To cap things off, they selected the star of the 0-16 season, quarterback Dan Orlovsky, in the fifth round.

Finally, one final note on this. You might notice that most of the teams seem to be doing pretty well in this study. That’s because the data used to derive these numbers go back to 1980; as it turns out, the years from 2000 to 2007 happen to be a very efficient period in NFL drafting history. I also confirmed this with friend of the site Danny Tuccitto, who has his own excellent draft article out today.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-best-drafting-teams-from-2000-to-2007/#more-8725

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

3rd String Kicker

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« #1 : March 26, 2013, 02:12:50 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.

GameTime

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« #2 : March 26, 2013, 03:17:37 PM »

its a shame its from 2007.  is there a more current version? 

for the most part this is a blackeye on mckay-dungy-allen-gruden...possibly showing why dominik-morris-schiano had so much work to do.

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bradentonian

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« #3 : March 26, 2013, 03:18:08 PM »

Must not be including the "second draft"


Feel Real Good

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« #4 : March 26, 2013, 03:54:46 PM »

Must not be including the "second draft"
Nope. San Diego would be higher if Antonio Gates was part of this.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

Chris_BucFan60

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« #5 : March 26, 2013, 03:58:44 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.


blind melon

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« #6 : March 26, 2013, 04:01:29 PM »

And Arizona ...

Who knew how good it would feel as a fan when we now know what it\'s like for our team to have a direction, an attitude, and dare I say an offense?.  

Good time to be a Bucs fan.

Feel Real Good

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« #7 : March 26, 2013, 04:02:59 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.
Jax drafted six players who would make at least one Pro Bowl during this time.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

BucNY

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« #8 : March 26, 2013, 04:57:10 PM »

Must not be including the "second draft"

Hahaha, that's great. I'd like to see who signed the most UDRFA that actually played like 7th round picks, we'd be killing it in that category.

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danlowe748

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« #9 : March 26, 2013, 05:17:03 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.
Jax drafted six players who would make at least one Pro Bowl during this time.


I guess that goes to show you that teams who draft well may still stink.

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« #10 : March 26, 2013, 06:59:59 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.
Jax drafted six players who would make at least one Pro Bowl during this time.


I guess that goes to show you that teams who draft well may still stink.
between. 2004 and 2007 they were 40-24 including a 12 win and 11 win season. 


Skull and Bones

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« #11 : March 26, 2013, 07:05:07 PM »

And that was with so so QB play. 


Dolorous Jason

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« #12 : March 26, 2013, 07:20:55 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.


The Blaine Gabbert pick alone should send the Jags straight to the bottom. 

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

danlowe748

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« #13 : March 26, 2013, 07:28:42 PM »

Love it.

Strong correlations to success, Not a shocking top half either.
Actually Jacksonville is very shocking.
Jax drafted six players who would make at least one Pro Bowl during this time.


I guess that goes to show you that teams who draft well may still stink.
between. 2004 and 2007 they were 40-24 including a 12 win and 11 win season.

That was when Mike Smith was their defensive coordinator.   As soon as he left and went to the Falcons, the Falcons became winners and the Jaguars became losers.    Good coaching is more important than good players.
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