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michael89156

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« : March 28, 2013, 12:34:11 AM »



PFF’s 2009 First Round Re-draft

Khaled Elsayed | 2013/03/27



If you don’t learn from the mistakes of the past then you’re destined to repeat them, right? So while everyone is shifting focus to the incoming class of rookies, we’re spending some time looking back at previous draft classes, assessing just how good picks were, and what teams should have done.
 
Here I’ll be using the PFF grading scale, so anything from -2.0 (terrible) to +2.0 (excellent) is possible.
 
Let’s see how 2009 comes out.


 
1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
 
Key Stat: After finishing fifth in our Adjusted Accuracy Percentage signature stat in 2011 Stafford dropped to 25th a year later.
 
Notes: What can you say about Stafford? His yardage totals impress in fantasy football, but with a huge numbers of attempts, and huge number of bad plays he’s yet to live up to what was expected. Equipped with a cannon for an arm and one of the best receivers in the game, he’s flashed his top end talent on plenty of occasions. Still, the jury is out.
 
Re-Draft: The Lions desperately needed a quarterback and there’s no doubting the ceiling of Matthew Stafford. Right pick, even if he’s not the best player in this class by some distance.
 
Grade: +0.0
 
 
 
2. Jason Smith, OT, St Louis Rams
 
Key Stat: Unfortunately, Smith would end up playing just six snaps of his Rams career at left tackle.
 
Notes: A massive bust, there were times when you thought Smith might develop into a competent player. However, with a questionable attitude, and struggling to stay on the field, a new regime in St Louis cut their losses. A big let down.
 
Re-Draft: This was a team going nowhere fast so going best player available made a lot of sense. You wouldn’t want Marc Bulger or Kyle Boller throwing to him in the long term, but Hakeem Nicks is a very nice choice.
 
Grade: -1.5
 
 
 
3. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
 
Key Stat: Jackson has never managed more than eight combined sacks, hits and hurries in a season.
 
Notes: A terrible selection with the benefit of hindsight. It became quickly apparent to all that Jackson couldn’t handle an every-down role as he lacked the ability to generate any pressure. Even a breakout 2011 year (where he was a force in the run game) looks more like the exception than the rule, with Jackson barely being an adequate early downs guy.
 
Re-Draft: The team was in the midst of converting to a 3-4 defense and who knew if Tamba Hali would transition successfully. Even so, pairing him with Clay Matthews would have really added something to this team.
 
Grade: -1.0
 
 
 
4. Aaron Curry, OLB, Seattle Seahawks
 
Key Stat: Curry only earned a -11.8 grade in coverage in just over two years in Seattle.
 
Notes: Was considered by many to be the most NFL-ready player from the 2009 draft class. Shows what they know. A liability in coverage, Curry may have been an extraordinary athlete but he was a less than ordinary football player. A new regime and some schematic changes signaled the end for Curry as a Seahawk, despite Pete Carroll giving him a chance to prove his worth. He didn’t.
 
Re-Draft: This team didn’t have a running back on the roster it trusted. Arian Foster could have worked for this team in a number of ways.
 
Grade: -1.0
 
 
 
5. Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
 
Key Stat: Finished in the bottom six of our Adjusted Accuracy Percentage every year he’s been in the league.
 
Notes: The Jets made a bold move to make Sanchez their quarterback of the future. On the surface of it two AFC Championship games might signal a decent return on investment. The truth is that the Jets were blessed with an excellent roster and he failed to take full advantage it. As the roster became older, his flaws were more exposed. A disappointment.
 
Re-Draft: You wouldn’t have traded up for him, but with the fifth overall pick the Jets would want a difference maker. Percy Harvin has proven he can be productive regardless of who’s playing quarterback.
 
Grade: -1.0
 
 
 
6. Andre Smith, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
 
Key Stat: In 2012 Smith was our top ranked right tackle.
 
Notes: It certainly took Smith a while to get going. He was slow to his first camp with a holdout, and then continual weight issues kept him off the field. However, he got in better shape and has developed into a an elite right tackle. He’s much better going forward than back, and in that respect has become a perfect fit for Cincinnati. The character concerns haven’t gone away though.
 
Re-Draft: A team sorely lacking pass rush. Brian Orakpo could help that out for sure.
 
Grade: +0.5
 
 
 
7. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders
 
Key Stat: Picked up just 1.19 Yards Per Route Run in 2012 — 11th lowest in the NFL.
 
Notes: The Raiders fell in love with “DHB” because of his speed, viewing him as being the receiver to get behind opposing defenses. It didn’t work out that way as he would spend his four years catching just 11 deep balls. To put that in perspective, 10 guys caught more than that last year alone. Just not a productive player and drafted far higher than he ever should have been.
 
Re-Draft: So you’re desperate for a speedy receiver? Just pick Mike Wallace.
 
Grade:  -1.0
 
 
 
8. Eugene Monroe, OT, Jacksonville Jaguars
 
Key Stat: Gave up 90 quarterback disruptions in his first two years in the league. Monroe then improved to 58 in the next two years.
 
Notes: Monroe may never be an elite left tackle, but he’s got the look of a guy who is going to be a very good one for a long time. He’ll get beat at times by some of the better pass rushers out there, but more often than not can keep his quarterback protected.
 
Re-Draft: Not a home run by most counts, but the Jags wanted a franchise left tackle and Eugene Monroe was that guy.
 
Grade: +0.5
 
 
 
9. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay Packers
 
Key Stat: Managed 51 quarterback disruptions on the Packers’ run to the Super Bowl in 2010.
 
Notes: What to make of B.J. Raji? On one hand he’s a guy who can dominate at times, such as when he went on a tear in the 2010 postseason. However, too often he’s a guy who looks relatively invisible, leaning on offensive linemen rather than doing something… well, productive. The Packers have used him more at defensive end recently, with some more noteworthy performances, yet we’re left wanting to see more from him.
 
Re-Draft: The Packers could bring in Sebastian Vollmer and get him ready to take over from either Chad Clifton or Mark Tauscher.
 
Grade: +0.5
 
 
 
10. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
 
Key Stat: Finished 2012 with 2.55 Yards Per Route Run, which was fifth-highest (and equal to Calvin Johnson) in the league.
 
Notes: For a while you wondered just what the 49ers had in Crabtree. A difficult rookie year was followed by a couple of seasons where he was good, but not great, with a tendency to drop passes. Then 2012 happened, and with a switch at quarterback he would finish the year our seventh ranked receiver. A player that’s getting better and better.
 
Re-Draft: Desperately low on talent at wide receiver, Michael Crabtree remains the right move.
 
Grade: +0.5
 
 
 
11. Aaron Maybin, OLB, Buffalo Bills
 
Key Stat: Had 11 combined sacks, hits and hurries in two years with the Bills.
 
Notes: A true waste of a pick. The Bills had him on the field for 330 snaps in two years and received desperately little production. Woeful. What else can you say?
 
Re-Draft: A player like Brian Cushing would have given this defense a much needed boost.
 
Grade: -2.0
 
 
 
12. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
 
Key Stat: Averaging 4.0 yards per carry in his career.
 
Notes: When Josh McDaniels came in he had some pretty big shoes to fill. Mike Shanahan had built a running game that could plug in runners and get production, and so in a radical, symbolic departure from that, the Broncos picked up Moreno. That doesn’t make him worth the 12th pick in any draft, and given how easy the Broncos have found it to replace him at times, it’s something of a waste.
 
Re-Draft: If you want a running back so bad then Lesean McCoy is the kind of playmaker they could do with.
 
Grade: -1.0
 
 
 
13. Brian Orakpo, OLB, Washington Redskins
 
Key Stat: Owner of the sixth-highest Pass Rushing Productivity score of all 3-4 outside linebackers in 2011.
 
Notes: Orakpo was miscast in his rookie year as a 4-3 outside linebacker, but since switching to a more attacking role in the Redskins’ 3-4 defense he has flourished. Year after year he has has shown significant improvement, even if he may never be the most complete defender in the league. It’s a shame he missed so much of 2012 injured because his 2011 season, where he earned a +20.0 pass rushing grade, was something to really build on.
 
Re-Draft: The team could look toward thinking to the future with a guy who can be an explosive pass rusher. Like Michael Johnson.
 
Grade: +1.0
 
 
 
14. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, New Orleans Saints
 
Key Stat: Missed one tackle in every 5.2 attempted which was the fifth-worst score for any safety in 2012.
 
Notes: The Saints drafted Jenkins to shore up their cornerback spot. In his rookie year he initially played sparingly as the Saints won the Super Bowl, but it was enough for him to be moved to safety full time. However, like many former cornerbacks, the switch to safety hasn’t been an easy one, despite his profile and it showed up big with a horrible 2012 season.
 
Re-Draft: A much better cornerback to select would have been Lardarius Webb.
 
Grade: -0.5
 
 
 
15. Brian Cushing, ILB, Houston Texans
 
Key Stat: Has missed only 25 tackles in four years in the NFL. London Fletcher by comparison missed 21 last year alone.
 
Notes: After a stellar rookie season, Cushing had to battle suspensions and injuries in a disappointing second year. Still, he bounced back with an excellent 2011 where he showed himself to be an elite linebacker. He was well on his way to reinforcing that before an injury knocked him out of the 2012 season and severely impacted the Texans’ defense. He’s missed more time than you’d like, but Cushing remains an excellent player for the Texans.
 
Re-Draft: The defense had holes everywhere. In a division where they needed to make Peyton Manning uncomfortable, step forward Henry Melton.
 
Grade: +1.0
 
 
 
16. Larry English, OLB, San Diego Chargers
 
Key Stat: After a rookie season where he managed a disappointing 25 quarterback disruptions, he has picked up only 19 since.
 
Notes: The Chargers saw English as a long-term replacement to the fading force that was Shawne Merriman. He wasn’t. Remarkably still with the team, he plummeted down the Chargers’ depth chart and has struggled to get playing time. Even when he has been on the field he’s failed to produce and must go down as a wasted pick.
 
Re-Draft:  It may be a little high for him, but if you’re desperate for pass rush then Paul Kruger is the best guy to fit in their 3-4 scheme.



17. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 
Key Stat: Back in 2010 he threw six interceptions. Since then Freeman has thrown 39 picks.
 
Notes: At the back end of his sophomore season it started to look like Freeman was getting it. Then a horrible 2011, followed by a terrible end to 2012, leaves you wondering if he is the Bucs’ quarterback of the future. The best you can say is that there are questions that need answers.
 
Re-Draft: A ball hawking safety like Jairus Byrd couldn’t hurt.
 
Grade: +0.0




https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/27/pffs-2009-first-round-re-draft/

3rd String Kicker

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« #1 : March 28, 2013, 09:14:18 AM »

This was a funny one, because initially I wanted Peria Jerry which would have been a disaster. We did need a QB, so I would say so.

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« #2 : March 28, 2013, 09:23:31 AM »

Now that is a draft filled with overrated guys. I remember feeling that way at the time too



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« #3 : March 28, 2013, 09:33:59 AM »

With the gift of perfect hindsight, I'd probably pass on Freeman and take Kaepernick a couple years later. Of the QBs drafted since Freeman was picked, I think the guys that are "no-brainers" that you'd rather have than Freeman are Luck, Kaepernick and RG3 if you're confident in Griffin's health. The next tier of QBs (including Freeman) can all go either way. I wasn't sure whether to put Cam Newton at the bottom of the top tier or at the top of the tier that Freeman is in.

So yeah, I'd probably take Kaepernick in 2011, but the other guys would all require some maneuvering or tanking, though it's hard to overpay for a franchise quarterback if they decided to trade.

There\'s a very real chance the Bucs waive [Revis] before next season. At the very least, it will be a discussion worth having.

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« #4 : March 28, 2013, 09:43:19 AM »

As much as I'm done with him I would still take him at that point.
We were in dire need of a QB and he was the nearest thing to it that year and it's not like you can predict how things would have played out in future years thanks to the "butterfly effect" but we know now that the 2010 draft was garbage in terms of QBs.
Can you imagine taking over a team with no QB and drafting a DB, then saying "don't worry, we'll draft a guy in 3 or 4 years time."
« : March 28, 2013, 09:46:34 AM TBTrojan »

acacius

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« #5 : March 28, 2013, 09:44:57 AM »

Yeah, Freeman looks like the right call to me even in retrospect, but that's more an indictment of that draft than it is *real* support of Freeman.

blind melon

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« #6 : March 28, 2013, 09:49:48 AM »

Yes.

Who knew how good it would feel as a fan when we now know what it\'s like for our team to have a direction, an attitude, and dare I say an offense?.  

Good time to be a Bucs fan.

dexmonkey

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« #7 : March 28, 2013, 09:52:58 AM »

if i had to do it again id say yes we still take him. you cant neccessairly bank on the future and just pray someone emerges. that

i remember a point where jake locker was considered a #1 overall and then went back to college for his senior year and now looks like a bust a #8.
same thing as matt barkley.

andrew luck was the only sure thing qb who has panned out like expected in a long time. that draft had a lot of bums in it. LOL at the top 5. stafford is the only one worth a damn. look at all the busts in that draft. aaron curry, tyson jackson,  jason smith, mark sanchez, larry english, darius heyward bey, aaron maybin, knowshon moreno, peria jerry, donald brown, and beanie wells. that has got to be one of the worst 1st rounds ive ever seen

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« #8 : March 28, 2013, 09:55:59 AM »

I'd still take him.. I just would have b*tch slapped him the moment he mentioned losing weight.

Feel Real Good

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« #9 : March 28, 2013, 09:56:15 AM »

Since Gruden didn't trade up for Joe Flacco and assuming without Freeman the Bucs would have not been bad enough to draft Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or Robert Griffin III, there have only been two QB's drafted since Freeman that are better than him. So the fact that the Bucs got one of the three best QB's they would have had available in a four year span and got him at the very beginning of the four years, he's been a pretty solid investment.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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« #10 : March 28, 2013, 10:01:33 AM »

With the gift of perfect hindsight, I'd probably pass on Freeman and take Kaepernick a couple years later.

Yeah pretty much. I'm a big freepologist but initially I hated the pick. Looking back at it, he was in college what he is currently. Big arm, athletic (although he doesn't use it anymore) and with some questionable decision making and accuracy.

I still think he can fix or control those bad things but It would be hard to argue that he was the 100% right choice in 2009. I would have been fine playing with JJ for a couple years then grabbing someone else. The problem is, who would have thought Colin Kaepernick would be what he is.

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« #11 : March 28, 2013, 10:02:57 AM »

Yes.


XFactor

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« #12 : March 28, 2013, 10:05:47 AM »

If we are playing the hindsight game would have never traded for Winslow, would have taken Freeman, Lesean McCoy and Mike Wallace with the first three picks.


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« #13 : March 28, 2013, 10:06:06 AM »

assuming without Freeman the Bucs would have not been bad enough to draft Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or Robert Griffin III,  there have only been two QB's drafted since Freeman that are better than him.

Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Brandon Weeden, and even probably Tim Tebow are all better than Freeman.    That's 14 guys in 3 years who are already better than him.   Terrible pick.

BucNY

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« #14 : March 28, 2013, 10:07:41 AM »

Java?

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