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traew01

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: April 23, 2013, 01:31:19 PM


After reading this - the words "no brainer" seem to be the most fitting:


 A breakdown of the combined 50 players selected at No. 13 and No. 80 overall over the past 25 years shows:

Of those 50 players, it's fair to say that a healthy Revis has already proved to be a better player than all but three. And even those three are somewhat debatable.


Tony Gonzalez heads into his 17th NFL season. Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez, a 13-time Pro Bowler who holds nearly every receiving record for his position and seems a sure bet to make the Hall of Fame, is the only one of those 50 who has had a better career than Revis. The next two up for discussion are former tight end Keith Jackson, a six-time Pro Bowler, and current free agent defensive end John Abraham, who is the only other player in that group to make four Pro Bowls.

The other 47 are a mix of some good players (Brian Orakpo, Takeo Spikes and Brad Hopkins) and a lot of anonymous players like Troy Edwards, Ramos McDonald and Eugene Chung.

Or consider this: The whole group of 50 has combined to be selected to 45 Pro Bowl appearances. Those 45 appearances were split among 14 players and includes the combined 23 by the trio of Gonzalez, Jackson and Abraham.

In other words, the Jets will be extraordinarily lucky to get a player even close to Revis in talent. Heck, they'll be fortunate to get a guy who might make even one Pro Bowl appearance in his career. Only two (Orakpo, Jammal Brown) of the past 11 players selected at No. 13 have made a Pro Bowl so far.

"When you put it that way, it's kind of a no-brainer," an AFC coach said with a laugh. "We probably should have been in on that [but] right now, we're all thinking about getting a young player who is going to be great who we're about to take.

"Then they get to the building and you realize they have a long way to go."




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#1 : April 23, 2013, 01:39:36 PM

After the deal was announced Sal Paolantonio's text to Bucs high level official believed to be Mark Dominik  "You stole from the Jets".

But hard to believe that there is so much polarity on who got the best of the deal.

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#2 : April 23, 2013, 01:42:37 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#3 : April 23, 2013, 01:59:09 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

I don't care to look up other threads so I'll just respond to this in this thread. That doesn't make any sense. I agree that it's really hard to judge the value of a pick that hasn't happened yet, but where do you stop with what you could have done? Every pick behind 13? Undrafted FAs as well? Yes if you stack Darrelle Revis up against every pick #13 and later then there are better players, but that's really kind of stupid don't you think? I guess you could do every pick between #13 and the Bucs next pick, but that doesn't really take into account the possibilities of trading up or trading back. It's too convoluted to say any pick #13 and beyond and it's not as easy as saying every #13 pick.

In the end, it will be pretty simple to evaluate the trade on the Jets end, but not for the Bucs.

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#4 : April 23, 2013, 02:08:40 PM

Any analysis that doesn't include much about the difference between 16M and what a 13th pick gets paid is far from the best I've seen.

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#5 : April 23, 2013, 02:15:29 PM

I don't think you can break down a draft and a trade like that, just doesn't work that way. However, I do believe you can generally look at our needs and say that we were likely going to address the CB spot at #13 or trade down using #13 for a CB. With that in mind, we have drafted 19 CB or S since Dom was moved into a spot to have influence on drafting as director of pro personnel. That's 19 people and here are the best we ended up with....

1. Jermaine Phillips
2. Aqib Talib
3. Mark Barron.

Some picks were higher rounds, some not. A large large majority of guys WERE NOT IMPACT PLAYERS and depth at best and many were busts who most would not identify as NFL players, some nothing about Buccaneer players.

So some quick math shows us that a 15% of guys we drafted in the secondary have actually helped this team win games. Now that may be because we didn't use many 1st rounders on CB/S or it could be that Dom is just not very good at evaluating that position.  Don't know and to some extent, it doesn't matter. We've spent a lot of years trying to find the next ronde barber or john lynch. Barron may eventually be the next Lynch but the closest we've come to finding another Ronde is Aqib Talib and that isn't very close.

So in my mind, yes we could have found a homerun this year, but based on the past history, it's less likely to happen. Maybe Schiano changes that as last year those two had our best draft in years, again we don't know. Revis was a known commodity as long as we felt his knee was right, we think it is and his cost was very inexpensive considering the talent he brings. He really was a no brainer and we needed to KNOW that next year we were going to be better at CB, not hoping a draft pick could figure it out on the fly.

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#6 : April 23, 2013, 02:16:28 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

I don't care to look up other threads so I'll just respond to this in this thread. That doesn't make any sense. I agree that it's really hard to judge the value of a pick that hasn't happened yet, but where do you stop with what you could have done? Every pick behind 13? Undrafted FAs as well? Yes if you stack Darrelle Revis up against every pick #13 and later then there are better players, but that's really kind of stupid don't you think? I guess you could do every pick between #13 and the Bucs next pick, but that doesn't really take into account the possibilities of trading up or trading back. It's too convoluted to say any pick #13 and beyond and it's not as easy as saying every #13 pick.

In the end, it will be pretty simple to evaluate the trade on the Jets end, but not for the Bucs.
The point is any team with the #13 is realistically looking at between 5-10 players for that slot, so just because one year someone may have screwed up, it doesn't mean #13 is a bad pick, just like #1 isn't bad just because some years teams pick David Carr and JaMarcus Russell.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

traew01

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#7 : April 23, 2013, 02:40:28 PM

Any analysis that doesn't include much about the difference between 16M and what a 13th pick gets paid is far from the best I've seen.


Why do people care about paying a guy the caliber of Darrell Revis 16 million a year - when 1. it is not guaranteed money; and 2. We are 30 million under the cap this year.

If need be, we could always renegotiate in a future season to get cap relief, especially if Revis ends up being fully recovered, back to his old form, and looks to have 6-7 years left of career.


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#8 : April 23, 2013, 02:42:36 PM

Answer traew: they have to rip the Bucs for something. It's such a one-sided deal that they have to complain somehow.

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#9 : April 23, 2013, 02:44:36 PM

Any analysis that doesn't include much about the difference between 16M and what a 13th pick gets paid is far from the best I've seen.
Why do people care about paying a guy the caliber of Darrell Revis 16 million a year - when 1. it is not guaranteed money; and 2. We are 30 million under the cap this year.

If need be, we could always renegotiate in a future season to get cap relief, especially if Revis ends up being fully recovered, back to his old form, and looks to have 6-7 years left of career.
1. It's guaranteed non-guaranteed money because he's going to make $16 million this year and unless his leg falls off he's going to make another $16 million in 2014 and 2015, or else Dominik will have to admit he made the dumbest trade since Carson Palmer.

2. Renegotiating for cap relief just means you have to pay more later, which means one day the Bucs will be in the position the Jets are in where they can't afford to keep their best players.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#10 : April 23, 2013, 02:51:02 PM

Yeah but that might be six or seven years down the road, after a Super Bowl win, which is a fair trade off.

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#11 : April 23, 2013, 02:55:22 PM

Answer traew: they have to rip the Bucs for something. It's such a one-sided deal that they have to complain somehow.


NO KIDDING!!

Man...I have been a really vocal complainer on this board. But my complaint has always been that Dominik and the Bucs NEVER DO ANYTHING to get better. Well, they are starting to prove me wrong.


These people complaining about the salary are the same people who probably would complain about the taxes they have to pay after winning the lottery. Be HAPPY you have to pay the damn salary. WHY??? Because you just got the BEST FREAKIN DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE NFL!!!! My god. Assuming Revis is Revis - pull out the check book, write the check with a huge smile on your face, and be grateful you finally have some guys on your team who are actually deserving of big money contracts.

Unreal.

The day you do not have enough money to pay all your great players is the day you should be waiting for. Because hopefully that will mean we have a loaded roster. Its the days when you have $$30 million in cap space and guys like Johnson, Biggers, PIscatelli, etc in your secondary that you should be pissed off about.



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#12 : April 23, 2013, 02:55:37 PM

Answer traew: they have to rip the Bucs for something. It's such a one-sided deal that they have to complain somehow.

Wrong, if this deal is going to be looked at it should be from more than just saying there probably won't be a Revis caliber player at 13.

traew01

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#13 : April 23, 2013, 03:01:29 PM

Answer traew: they have to rip the Bucs for something. It's such a one-sided deal that they have to complain somehow.

Wrong, if this deal is going to be looked at it should be from more than just saying there probably won't be a Revis caliber player at 13.


Wrong. They just got the BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER in the League. I will trade the 13th pick in a mediocre draft, a presumably lower 3rd and 16 million for that any day, every day, all day...... it was R_O_B_B_E_R_Y


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#14 : April 23, 2013, 03:08:39 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

I don't care to look up other threads so I'll just respond to this in this thread. That doesn't make any sense. I agree that it's really hard to judge the value of a pick that hasn't happened yet, but where do you stop with what you could have done? Every pick behind 13? Undrafted FAs as well? Yes if you stack Darrelle Revis up against every pick #13 and later then there are better players, but that's really kind of stupid don't you think? I guess you could do every pick between #13 and the Bucs next pick, but that doesn't really take into account the possibilities of trading up or trading back. It's too convoluted to say any pick #13 and beyond and it's not as easy as saying every #13 pick.

In the end, it will be pretty simple to evaluate the trade on the Jets end, but not for the Bucs.
The point is any team with the #13 is realistically looking at between 5-10 players for that slot, so just because one year someone may have screwed up, it doesn't mean #13 is a bad pick, just like #1 isn't bad just because some years teams pick David Carr and JaMarcus Russell.

I like the trade, but I think FRG is exactly right.

I'd point out that Revis was originally drafted at 14.
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