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Pteranodon

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#15 : April 23, 2013, 03:10:41 PM


Wrong. They just got the BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER in the League. I will trade the 13th pick in a mediocre draft, a presumably lower 3rd and 16 million for that any day, every day, all day...... it was R_O_B_B_E_R_Y

So basically just look at this deal from one side and ignore everything else? Look I like getting Revis, the compensation was good as you say assuming he is still that player, but that's a question, and 16M is questionable for a CB, things like that should be a part of looking at the deal and it's not wrong to do that.

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#16 : April 23, 2013, 03:13:11 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

I don't care to look up other threads so I'll just respond to this in this thread. That doesn't make any sense. I agree that it's really hard to judge the value of a pick that hasn't happened yet, but where do you stop with what you could have done? Every pick behind 13? Undrafted FAs as well? Yes if you stack Darrelle Revis up against every pick #13 and later then there are better players, but that's really kind of stupid don't you think? I guess you could do every pick between #13 and the Bucs next pick, but that doesn't really take into account the possibilities of trading up or trading back. It's too convoluted to say any pick #13 and beyond and it's not as easy as saying every #13 pick.

In the end, it will be pretty simple to evaluate the trade on the Jets end, but not for the Bucs.
The point is any team with the #13 is realistically looking at between 5-10 players for that slot, so just because one year someone may have screwed up, it doesn't mean #13 is a bad pick, just like #1 isn't bad just because some years teams pick David Carr and JaMarcus Russell.


You have to analyze the picks based on probablity. Thats what this study does.

What is the probability based on factual history that you will end up with a player at #13 the caliber of a KNOWN COMMODITY in Darrell Revis?

And the answer is.... extremely, extremely LOW PROBABILITY.



Booker Reese

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#17 : April 23, 2013, 03:15:26 PM

Maybe this will help illustrate it. Take 1995.

Mark Fields was taken 13. Imagine that the Bucs had pick 13. Do we really think they'd have taken Fields, and not Derrick Brooks at that spot?

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#18 : April 23, 2013, 03:17:45 PM

As has been stated in numerous threads not even about this trade, you don't just judge the value of the #13 pick by what teams in previous years did with the #13 pick. You judge it based on what those teams could have done. A team may have missed at #13 but then at #14, #17, or #20 there was a Hall of Fame player they could have had. That's the true value of a pick.

I don't care to look up other threads so I'll just respond to this in this thread. That doesn't make any sense. I agree that it's really hard to judge the value of a pick that hasn't happened yet, but where do you stop with what you could have done? Every pick behind 13? Undrafted FAs as well? Yes if you stack Darrelle Revis up against every pick #13 and later then there are better players, but that's really kind of stupid don't you think? I guess you could do every pick between #13 and the Bucs next pick, but that doesn't really take into account the possibilities of trading up or trading back. It's too convoluted to say any pick #13 and beyond and it's not as easy as saying every #13 pick.

In the end, it will be pretty simple to evaluate the trade on the Jets end, but not for the Bucs.
The point is any team with the #13 is realistically looking at between 5-10 players for that slot, so just because one year someone may have screwed up, it doesn't mean #13 is a bad pick, just like #1 isn't bad just because some years teams pick David Carr and JaMarcus Russell.


You have to analyze the picks based on probablity. Thats what this study does.

What is the probability based on factual history that you will end up with a player at #13 the caliber of a KNOWN COMMODITY in Darrell Revis?

And the answer is.... extremely, extremely LOW PROBABILITY.

Getting a future Hall of Famer at any position in the draft is a low probability.

But that "analysis" doesn't say much.

traew01

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#19 : April 23, 2013, 03:18:22 PM


Wrong. They just got the BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER in the League. I will trade the 13th pick in a mediocre draft, a presumably lower 3rd and 16 million for that any day, every day, all day...... it was R_O_B_B_E_R_Y

So basically just look at this deal from one side and ignore everything else? Look I like getting Revis, the compensation was good as you say assuming he is still that player, but that's a question, and 16M is questionable for a CB, things like that should be a part of looking at the deal and it's not wrong to do that.


I am not ignoring everything else.

The ONLY risk here is the knee injury. That's the big unknown. But otherwise it is a SLAM DUNK.

When your team has put the worst secondary in the NFL on the field the last two seasons, arguably the worst in NFL history last season, in a passing league, and you have the almost unheard of opportunity to lock up one of the greatest lock down corners in the history of the National Football League - on top of having massive cap room to afford it - you write the check.

That doesnt even take into account the intangibles he brings to this defense. He is now the face of our D. He brings leadership, a brash attitude, and I am convinced will be a guy we have been missing like Lynch and Brooks -- who will get these young guys to take the next step.


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#20 : April 23, 2013, 03:26:04 PM

The GOAT himself Jerry Rice said it on ESPN the other day. "I have seen shutdown corners in this league. They are Deion, Darrel Green and Revis".

Revis is not just a pro bowl talent. He is a once in a lifetime corner. Look how badly the Jet's defense feel apart without him. Yes you can point out the pass defense was still great, and give Cromartie his due for being one of the better and most underated corners in the league, but Revis gives a defense so much flexibility. He has shown he can flat out take away one half of the field. Great offenses are based around mis-matches. Look at the falcons. Two stud WRs and a HOF TE. Any other defense cannot handle these guys. Revis can take one of them away at any given moment. His talent gives you the ability the blitz more. He flat out makes everyone on the defense better. I know it's a different position, but look at Troy on the Steelers. The past decade he has just been told to free roam, and make plays. His instincts and range allowed he Steelers to blitz like crazy and get to the QB. When Troy doesn't play that defense just didn't work.

I'm really pumped about this trade. Unless he is not healthy, this might be one of the best moves our team has ever made. 


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#21 : April 23, 2013, 03:29:54 PM

He wouldn't be a buc if we didn't think he was going to 100% by game 1 and the same guy he was before.

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#22 : April 23, 2013, 03:31:51 PM

He wouldn't be a buc if we didn't think he was going to 100% by game 1 and the same guy he was before.

Yea when they said that yesterday I was very happy with the trade. I didnt want to give up 13 because of my uncertainty with his knee but when they said that I thought this deal was a no brainer. It just sucks to be a Jets fan. I guess it has for a while though.

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#23 : April 23, 2013, 03:54:01 PM

AN indicator of the value of the #13 pick is what everyone has done before.  Is it a fair indicator?  Maybe, maybe not, but the more #13 picks you include the fairer the representation because that was a lot of opportunities for people to make good and bad moves. 

Sure there are players picked after #13 who become HOFers, that's why a "better" indicator might be every historical pick at #13 PLUS some discounted value for better players picked later.  In other words, the value of the #13 pick is probably better represented as "the average of all historical picks at #13  . . . PLUS" The difficulty is quantifying the "PLUS"

If Revis is healthy amd plays to form he is worth more to this Bucs team (and this GM)  than "all historical picks at #13 PLUS"


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#24 : April 23, 2013, 05:27:55 PM

VinBuc, you need to look at it from a decision-making point of view.  If I'm a GM, I'm looking at the universe as everybody not already taken in the top 12. That's a larger pool than just one player. I'm guessing that if you asked every team to hypothetically pick at 13 you'd get 10 different players. That's a pool of 250 players, versus a sample of just 25 selections. 

I'm not knocking the deal, just the "best analysis" part of this thread.


HolyBuc

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#25 : April 23, 2013, 06:15:35 PM

There isn't much difference between pick #13 and pick #43 in this draft.  That needs to be talked about more,  JETS wanted a 1st this year for PR purposes.  You could make the argument in this draft our 2nd and 3rd round picks are more valuable than pick #13.  That doesn't happen very often.   

VinBucFan

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#26 : April 24, 2013, 12:33:08 AM

VinBuc, you need to look at it from a decision-making point of view.  If I'm a GM, I'm looking at the universe as everybody not already taken in the top 12. That's a larger pool than just one player. I'm guessing that if you asked every team to hypothetically pick at 13 you'd get 10 different players. That's a pool of 250 players, versus a sample of just 25 selections. 

I'm not knocking the deal, just the "best analysis" part of this thread.

I agree with you.  I think the analysis is AN indication but not the best indication


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#27 : April 24, 2013, 01:25:36 AM

VinBuc, you need to look at it from a decision-making point of view.  If I'm a GM, I'm looking at the universe as everybody not already taken in the top 12. That's a larger pool than just one player. I'm guessing that if you asked every team to hypothetically pick at 13 you'd get 10 different players. That's a pool of 250 players, versus a sample of just 25 selections. 

I'm not knocking the deal, just the "best analysis" part of this thread.

I agree with you.  I think the analysis is AN indication but not the best indication

The "analysis" is a freaking joke, not an indication. 

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