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: May 11, 2013, 12:03:00 AM

Mocking The Mocks: The Best And Worst Of The 2013 NFL Mock Drafts

By John Garner

May 10, 2013 7:53 am

This 2013 NFL Draft season has been historic.  There were imaginary girlfriends leading up to the draft, and a hotel room trashing at the combine.  Running backs being taken as if they were CFL players, and quarterbacks being drafted as if they played tight end.  Through it all however, there is a new piece of history the 2013 NFL draft has spawned : the worst round of Mock Drafts in NFL history.

I can be pretty generous when it comes to Mock Drafts.  Its hard to predict exactly what each team will do.  With that said however, some of these people are paid to do this.  It is their actual job, full time, to predict what teams will do and when each player will be drafted, and for some, the results were beyond horrible.

I am not even paid and I could give you a mock draft with like 30 out of 32 picks incorrect, but that is what some "experts" put for this season.  Even worse, there weren't many "diamonds in the rough" but a bunch of even less knowledgeable sports bloggers with EVEN WORSE results.

For Example :  Todd McShay, probably featured on ESPN more then anyone besides Mel Kiper himself this draft season, only had 4 picks correct in the first round.  4 out of 32.  Meaning he was wrong on 28 out of 32 picks, or close to 90% of the time.  Unfortunately, this happened to be a "good" score.

His partner Mel Kiper Jr. managed to have 0 picks correct in the entire first round.  Mel Kiper, the "expert" of the draft had NOT ONE PICK CORRECT IN HIS ENTIRE MOCK DRAFT.  It makes me wonder how someone could do this for a living for 365 days a year, and not even GUESS one correctly.

Other poor performers were Russ Lande of The National Football post, who only had 1 pick correct, and if he were way off on any more then another two picks, he could have actually had a negative score.  Meaning below the statistical average of flipping a coin.  In fact, most Mock drafters this year probably did worse then if you were to put together a consensus list of the top players, and simply flip a coin on where each one would be taken.

More statistically based prognosticators such as Ourlads.com, and Walter Football had some of the better results with 6 and 8 picks correct, and a +39, and +44 score , respectively.  With that said however, even these sources were wrong on at least 24 picks out of 32, for less then a 33% or so success rate.

So who did the best?  I was a little surprised to see it was none other then Mike Mayock.  I really like Mike Mayock's analysis during Thursday Night Football and he seems to really know his stuff, but I figured the draft "experts" like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay would have him and others beat when it comes to actually predicting the draft.  Way.  Wrong.

Mike Mayock had by far the best mock draft of the season based on every mock draft I researched, with 9 picks correct, and a +58 score.   In comparison.  Todd McShay had 4, and Mel Kiper had 0.  So in essence, Mike Mayock had more correct picks then Mel Kiper and Todd McShay COMBINED.

If you want to grade your own draft you can use my simple formula and come up with a decent estimate of a mock drafts success rate.  I awarded 5 points for every correct pick, 3 points for being off by 1 position, and 1 point for being within 10 picks, which is fairly generous I believe.  I also had to include a penalty for people who were just way, way off, which was a -1 for being more then 10 selections off, and a -2 for being 20 or more selections off from where the player was drafted.

Using this criteria I graded multiple "experts" and non-experts alike, and found poor results mostly across the board.  One writer on this very site of Football Nation claimed to have a "definite" lock on who would be picked where...and ended up getting a whole 2 picks correct, for a weak +18 score.   Meaning they were wrong on 30 out of 32 picks...or wrong on almost every single pick possible.  Also, the Football Nation collective mock draft did as poorly as Mel Kiper, predicting not 1 choice correct.  This varies however from the official FN Mock Draft done by our in-house experts which yielded a more respectable 3 picks and a +28 score, better then most any singular blogger on any site.

Bleacher Report for instance, fared even WORSE.  One of the more prominent writers on Bleacher Report had a well-read mock draft...and had a whole 1 pick correct for a terrible +8 score.  It is sometimes frustrating that a site such as Bleacher Report was bought up by a prominent national corporation, so now all of their articles get linked by google at the top of any search, when sometimes the content is absolutely abysmal.  This is why I urge people to not just get their news from Bleacher Report, but also look at Football Nation, and look at a collection of sources, as that will get you better insight into things, instead of just one source, as that can often times lead to laughably poor outcomes.



Here is my full list, with all scores :


source                               correct picks     total score

Mike Mayock                                   9                 +58

WalterFootball.com                         8                 +44

Ourlads.com                                   6                 +39

Don Banks at SI.com                     6                  +36

Todd McShay  ESPN                     4                  +36

Chris Burke at SI.com                   4                  +35

FootballNation.com                      3                  +28

Unnamed FN Writer                     2                  +18

Mel Kiper Jr.  ESPN                     0                  +16

Unnamed BR Writer                    1                   +8

Russ Lande at NFP                     1                   +3


Well, there you have it.  If you were claiming to have some glorious mock draft, you probably didn't.  There is unfortunately a plethora of bad sports blogging and reporting that goes on today, so I urge you, please do not make a mock draft, unless you are sure you have information others do not.  With the advent of the internet, and the ease with which people can blog about anything, sports reporting is now filled with probably a record number of poor prognostications and invalid opinions.  It is rampant in the industry so I ask you, please do not be that guy with a terrible mock draft.  If you are not sure who I am talking about...then its probably you. Also, please do not think you know who will be picked because you read one of these mock drafts.

If you personally want to know what your mock draft score is, or if you feel you know a mock draft that outperformed one of these, let me know and I will possibly calculate it for you in the comments section.

Here is to hoping that the 2013 season will not be filled with as much poor sports reporting as this draft cycle was, but I wouldn't count on it.


The Anti-Java

Hall of Famer

Posts : 23376
#1 : May 11, 2013, 01:42:28 AM

                                         correct picks          score

Mel Kiper Jr.  ESPN                     0                  +16


sig pic by chace1986

\\\\\\\"Java, do you understand this a perfect example of why people beg me to suspend or ban you on a daily basis? Are you actually trying to make a point? Seriously what is the reason for even commenting. In fact why do you even bother coming to the boards? What happened to the intelligent poster from years ago?  A real shame. Like the Bucs yesterday, a wasted effort.\\\\\\\"
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