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michael89156

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: July 05, 2013, 12:01:25 AM



ESPN: Buccaneers are ready to make the playoffs

By Sander Philipse

on Jul 4 2013, 3:55p




Al Messerschmidt



  Five long years with no playoffs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are about to end, if one man's statistical analysis can be believed. Josh Freeman and Darrelle Revis are at the core of that turnaround.

ESPN thinks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will make the playoffs. Or rather, K.C. Joyner and his statistical analysis does. Joyner's analysis is always interesting to me: the statistics he uses are different from most, and he relies on his own game charting. I don't know if it's overly accurate, but it does offer a different viewpoint.
 
And that viewpoint says the Buccaneers are in excellent position to make the playoffs in 2012. His analysis starts with, what else, Josh Freeman.


Bad decisions weren't Josh Freeman's problem
 
Have you heard of Joyner's Bad Decision Rate statistic? If you have, can you explain to me how it works? No? Well, that's the downside of proprietary statistics. Still, good fun:


  Freeman's 2.0 percent mark in the bad decision rate metric (BDR) was only two-tenths of a percentage point behind Aaron Rodgers in this category and was equal to Matt Ryan's total. (Note: BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team).
 

That's interesting. Decision-making is one of Freeman's criticisms, although that's always hard to judge. What may look like a bad decision could be a good one where the receiver ran a wrong route, or the opposite may be the case. Still, those numbers look good -- but they may simply suggest that the real problem is consistent accuracy. That's something he may be able to improve on but, as always, we have to go "wait and see" on Freeman. Oh good.

More intriguing perhaps is Joyner's comparison of Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman's yards per attempt on various route depth. It shouldn't be a huge surprise that Freeman looks good when looking at yards per attempt as it may very well be the only statistic (advanced or not) that makes him look good.
 


Route depth                          Matt Ryan                          Josh Freeman
 
Short (<12 yards)                      6.2                                       6.3

Medium (11-19 yards)              10.9                                     10.1
 
Deep (20-29 yards)                  11.6                                    14.9
 
Bomb (30+ yards)                     16                                      12.2

 
Overall total                              7.5                                       7.3
 

Intriguing numbers here, and some real surprises. Like Josh Freeman being slightly better than Ryan on short passes, something generally perceived as Freeman's weakness, while he's doing significantly worse on bombs -- supposedly the strong point of his offense. We may need to re-think some of our assumptions
 
Then again, if we look at efficiency at various depths, the conventional image of Freeman is still confirmed. Even within statistics, Freeman's inconsistent. It's impossible to say anything definitive on the man.


Secondary woes
 
The main reason for these terrible figures was the simply unacceptable coverage level of the Tampa Bay cornerbacks. This was an issue almost across the board, as evidenced by the YPA totals against Aqib Talib (14.0 in the four games he was in the lineup), Leonard Johnson (9.5), Eric Wright (9.2) and E.J. Biggers (8.0).
 
Yeah, about those numbers? They're bad. Really, really bad. However, and this is important to remember: the reason those numbers were bad wasn't just the quality of cornerbacks. It was also what they were asked to do. That is, way too much. Asking cornerbacks to go play press man with little safety help will make them look bad.

The addition of Darrelle Revis and Johnthan Banks will certainly help, there. I hope. Unless Revis' shredded ACL turns him into Sabby Piscitelli. A rookie and a cornerback coming off a torn ACL are certainly no guarantees of improvement, although it would be pretty hard to do worse than signing cornerbacks off the street at the end of the season.

Playoffs, finally?
 
Playoffs or bust. That's basically what is going to happen this year. Which is what we've been saying for years, with the exception of 2009 (and maybe 2010). I mean, I'd really like to see the Bucs just, like, appear in a playoff game. I almost don't even care if they get blown out. It has been five years since the Bucs even had a playoff game. That is ridiculous.
 
Apparently, we have some reason to believe it will be fixed. Color me skeptical.




http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/7/4/4494050/espn-buccaneers-are-ready-to-make-the-playoffs

The Anti-Java

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#1 : July 05, 2013, 01:18:53 AM

Its not out of the question. But a lot has to happen.

Freeman balls big time for 16

Revis picks up where he left off.  Plays 16, and is solid.

Bowers and Clayborn are racking up sacks so fast we lose count.


sig pic by chace1986

PewterReportMC....
\\\\\\\"Java, do you understand this a perfect example of why people beg me to suspend or ban you on a daily basis? Are you actually trying to make a point? Seriously what is the reason for even commenting. In fact why do you even bother coming to the boards? What happened to the intelligent poster from years ago?  A real shame. Like the Bucs yesterday, a wasted effort.\\\\\\\"

Benchwarmer#1

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#2 : July 05, 2013, 01:29:54 AM

OK, I was listening until he somehow managed to compare revis to Sabby.

_______________

^line drawn.

Naismith was right about Revis. Everyone else is a dummy.

Morgan

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#3 : July 05, 2013, 08:02:47 AM

Its not out of the question. But a lot has to happen.

Freeman balls big time for 16

Revis picks up where he left off.  Plays 16, and is solid.

Bowers and Clayborn are racking up sacks so fast we lose count.

Team has to stay healthy on both sides of the ball. I don't even think Freeman needs to be Superman - just be consistent, get the ball to our weapons (m williams, vjax, dougie).

nitey

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#4 : July 05, 2013, 08:03:21 AM

I'm far more confident in Revis's return to health than I am of Freeman overcoming his consistency issues. What I think will happen is that the defense will improve to a point that they can hold a lead and keep the opponents scoring down and that Freeman will be playing with a lead or in less of a position to feel that he needs to take the team on his shoulders and win. If Sully truly understands Freeman's weaknesses, he'll work to get more successful plays to him which will appear to make Freeman a better quarterback and less inconsistent. If that can happen, Freeman might show more confidence and actually improve.

It's that whole 'Circle of life' thing...  8)

Success is when Skill meets OpportunityFailure is when Fantasy meets Reality

QaZ

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#5 : July 05, 2013, 08:25:02 AM

Why are 'bombs' considered the strengths of his offense? Since when do we have speed at WR? Letting MW or VJAx run the field down the field for 30y and allowing them to set their feet so they then can fight for the ball thrown over DBs heads uesing their size takes alot of time to set up. A little stumble here or slip there while running that route and all of a sudden the ball sails way over everyones head. Must be nice to throw balls shoulder high, just by DBs, anticipating the WR to break his route at the right moment, hard to miss here by much, nor does the ball saill for long until toucheing the ground in case of.  But our WR can not get any separation, nor do they and our QB really have any chemisty (yet).

The Anti-Java

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#6 : July 05, 2013, 08:02:37 PM

I'm far more confident in Revis's return to health than I am of Freeman overcoming his consistency issues. What I think will happen is that the defense will improve to a point that they can hold a lead and keep the opponents scoring down and that Freeman will be playing with a lead or in less of a position to feel that he needs to take the team on his shoulders and win. If Sully truly understands Freeman's weaknesses, he'll work to get more successful plays to him which will appear to make Freeman a better quarterback and less inconsistent. If that can happen, Freeman might show more confidence and actually improve.

It's that whole 'Circle of life' thing...  8)



Agree.  He gets antsy out there when pressing.  Hopefully playing with a lead, will settle him down some.   


sig pic by chace1986

PewterReportMC....
\\\\\\\"Java, do you understand this a perfect example of why people beg me to suspend or ban you on a daily basis? Are you actually trying to make a point? Seriously what is the reason for even commenting. In fact why do you even bother coming to the boards? What happened to the intelligent poster from years ago?  A real shame. Like the Bucs yesterday, a wasted effort.\\\\\\\"
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