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michael89156

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« : September 18, 2013, 03:43:44 AM »


Predicting what Johnny Manziel’s stats will be in the NFL


Prediction Machine crunches the numbers.

 

USA Today Sports

By Paul Myerberg

September 16, 2013 at 5:49pm EDT



Sep 14, 2013; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies  quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) meets with Alabama Crimson Tide players at Kyle Field. Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Texas A&M Aggies 49-42.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports


Johnny Manziel: Top-tier NFL prospect?


As a redshirt sophomore three years removed from his high school graduation, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel is eligible for the NFL draft at the conclusion of the 2013 season. After winning the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman – becoming the first in Football Bowl Subdivision history to do so – and excelling in Saturday’s loss to No. 1 Alabama, Manziel could choose to forego his final two years of eligibility after this season and enter the draft while his stock is at its highest point.
 
If he does leave Texas A&M after this season, Manziel would immediately become one of the more popular – and perhaps most divisive – prospects in the 2014 draft. He’d also join a fairly crowded quarterback class headlined by Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, Clemson’s Tajh Boyd and Alabama’s AJ McCarron, among others.
 
“I think the rise in popularity of dual-threat quarterbacks certainly aids his projection to the NFL,” said Rob Rang, an NFL draft expert for CBSSports.com. “What also helps is that he does appear to have a stronger arm than a year ago, and that was the number one physical concern I had about him. It wasn’t his height. It was that I saw him rely on his mobility and touch rather than velocity to complete passes.
 
“So I certainly think he’s demonstrating he has the skill set to compete. The big concern is the leadership qualities that NFL teams require at that position.
 
“Hopefully, as the season goes on he’ll continue to make strides in that way. When he is pinned in the pocket, so to speak, can he still be successful? I think that he is improving in that way, but after only a couple of games this season there are still improvements to be made.”
 
Detractors point toward Manziel’s lack of prototypical size and Texas A&M’s untraditional offensive system, one that has bolstered quarterbacking numbers for other prospects in the recent past. But as with other high-profile draft picks, such as Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, a franchise that selects Manziel would likely tailor its offensive system to match his dual-threat abilities.
 
According to Prediction Machine, which uses a complex set of algorithms to calculate statistical inputs for rookies, Manziel would have a noteworthy rookie season despite two factors: one, his lack of prototypical experience, since he’s only a redshirt sophomore; and two, the fact he’s played only in a system unlike any currently used on the NFL level.
 
If a 16-game starter “for a totally average team,” Prediction Machine projects Manziel to complete 57.9% of his attempts for 3,338.6 yards and 22.6 touchdowns against 19.3 interceptions. As a runner, Prediction Machine forecasts Manziel to add 494.5 yards on 95.1 carries on the ground.
 
How his skill set translates to the NFL might depend on team needs, not Manziel’s own ability. For example, a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, which has long utilized a traditional, ball-control offense, might view Manziel as a poor fit for its scheme. On the other hand, the new-look Philadelphia Eagles, as coached by Chip Kelly, would view Manziel’s tendencies as a perfect match for its offensive system – as Kelly would know, because he recruited Manziel as a quarterback while the coach at Oregon.
 
“I don’t know that there are any quarterbacks anymore that teams are willing to completely cater their offense to, unless he has shown that he can also be successful in more traditional offenses,” Rang said.
 
“I think the biggest concern is that teams are going to have to really do their diligence to get to know Johnny as a young man. Because I think that he does have some steps he must make to be a successful starting quarterback in terms of just improving on the football field. At the same time, I don’t necessarily know that he has the maturity to handle being a backup. If all eyes aren’t on him at all times, then is he going to get himself into even more trouble? That’s the concern teams might have.”
 
***
 
If a 16-game starter “for a totally average team,” here’s how Prediction Machine projects Manziel’s rookie season:
 


Mike Foss/FTW (Photo:Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports)


“Presently, among college quarterbacks as NFL prospects, we would rank Johnny Manziel behind AJ McCarron, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota and Aaron Murray,” Prediction Machine says in its evaluation. The forecast gives Manziel “a similar grade to Brett Hundley, Tajh Boyd and David Fales,” and ranks the sophomore “firmly ahead of other prospects including  Stephen Morris, Derek Carr, Zach Mettenberger, Keith Price, Logan Thomas, James Franklin and Bryn Renner.”
 
An interesting note is that when Tim Tebow is run through the same algorithm as the Patriots’ quarterback, his numbers are virtually identical to Manziel’s if the Texas A&M QB was placed on an average team.
 
How his skill set translates to the NFL might depend on team needs, not Manziel’s own ability. For example, a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, which has long utilized a traditional, ball-control offense, might view Manziel as a poor fit for its scheme. On the other hand, the new-look Philadelphia Eagles, as coached by Chip Kelly, would view Manziel’s tendencies as a perfect match for its offensive system – as Kelly would know, since he once recruited Manziel as a quarterback while the coach at Oregon.
 



Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.
« : September 18, 2013, 03:45:25 AM michael89156 »

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« #1 : September 18, 2013, 07:10:07 AM »

A team like the bucs, who are successful with the run and have two very good wideouts could use a baller like this guy.

VJ's numbers would be insane. We could also use no huddle very, very quickly as well.

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« #2 : September 18, 2013, 08:38:05 AM »

Lol! This guy is going to be the biggest bust of the century.



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« #3 : September 18, 2013, 08:41:18 AM »

A team like the bucs, who are successful with the run and have two very good wideouts could use a baller like this guy.

VJ's numbers would be insane. We could also use no huddle very, very quickly as well.

Jackson's numbers couldn't be too insane if Manziel doesn't throw a great deep ball (heard that many times from many "experts"), only throws for 3,300 yards, and 22 TD's.

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« #4 : September 18, 2013, 01:39:04 PM »

I'd take that


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« #5 : September 18, 2013, 01:45:13 PM »

Scott Milanovich could throw for 3000 yards passing with this offense.


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« #6 : September 18, 2013, 01:50:50 PM »

Sign the 'vich !!!


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« #7 : September 18, 2013, 01:51:10 PM »

College stats are meaningless for projecting NFL QB's.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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« #8 : September 18, 2013, 01:51:31 PM »

Dudes, Manziel is going to be the next Tim Tebow.... A bunch of college talent that will never translate to the Pros. The guys are way too big and fast in the pros for Manziel to make a living running the ball.



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« #9 : September 18, 2013, 01:55:58 PM »

Dudes, Manziel is going to be the next Tim Tebow.... A bunch of college talent that will never translate to the Pros. The guys are way too big and fast in the pros for Manziel to make a living running the ball.


That all assumes too much. He is a pretty good passer as well.

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« #10 : September 18, 2013, 01:58:19 PM »

Manziel and tebow have nothing in common other than being white QBs that can run. JM has such a vastly different style and he's already a better passer than Timmy could ever hope to be.


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« #11 : September 18, 2013, 02:04:51 PM »

Manziel and tebow have nothing in common other than being white QBs that can run. JM has such a vastly different style and he's already a better passer than Timmy could ever hope to be.

They see a white running QB and they automatically think "tebow."

Honestly I think there is some racist viewpoints going on there, because as far as I can tell JM seems more like a young vick than anyone else in the NFL (minus the dog killing/fighting).

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« #12 : September 18, 2013, 02:08:52 PM »

Interesting, 'tho... that Tebow's first full year as a starter at Florida, he threw 32 TDs and 6 INTs to Manziel's 26 TDs and 9 INTs...


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« #13 : September 18, 2013, 02:09:10 PM »

Kid is a determined winner, can put the team on his back, and be counted on to make the big play when it matters.

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« #14 : September 18, 2013, 02:15:00 PM »

Manziel and tebow have nothing in common other than being white QBs that can run. JM has such a vastly different style and he's already a better passer than Timmy could ever hope to be.

They see a white running QB and they automatically think "tebow."

Honestly I think there is some racist viewpoints going on there, because as far as I can tell JM seems more like a young vick than anyone else in the NFL (minus the dog killing/fighting).
I don't know because for one thing Vick was an awful passer in college. He didn't even truly get good in the NFL until he went to the Eagles. Manziel is already much better. Additionally, Vick has an arm from the gods. Manziel is pretty average.

The comparison I can't shake for Manziel is Colt McCoy.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.
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