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jerseybucsfan

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#30 : November 14, 2013, 09:33:46 AM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

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#31 : November 14, 2013, 09:36:13 AM

And FRG is right, scouting is better these days.
Also, QBs are significantly more prepared in college these days and the passing game in the NFL has gotten easier, too.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#32 : November 14, 2013, 09:50:19 AM

Bradford isn't terrible , he simply doesn't come close to living up to #1 pick status . If we decide Glennon is our guy at the end of the season then I think Bradford would be a great signing for us . He's someone who can push Glennon in camp and then be a fail-safe if Glennon turns into Chris Simms Part II
You're insane. Put up on straight jacket.
We need a franchise QB, not a band aid. Yes, Bradford isn't terrible.... And that is the problem. Freeman wasn't terrible in 2010 and at least superficially didn't look that way in 2012. We finally get free from the almost-good enough syndrome and you want to get back into it?
David Garrard, Jon Kitna, Jason Campbell, Jim Hart, the list goes on... Norm Snead, Steve DeBerg....
You avoid this type of QB at all costs. They can waste decades of your time and play just well enough to keep you from getting to where you want to go.

If the Bucs decide to go with Glennon. I didmt say this is what will happen or definitely should happen. They still depends on the rest of this season. . Relax.

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

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#33 : November 14, 2013, 11:09:11 AM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
: November 14, 2013, 11:14:35 AM TBayXXXVII

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#34 : November 14, 2013, 11:52:04 AM

Big difference between Bradford and Freeman is Bradford won't cause problems off the field and I'm guessing he takes his job a little more seriously.  He obviously wouldn't be my first choice in options but if were the best QB this team can get I guess I could live with it.


freddy

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#35 : November 14, 2013, 12:16:09 PM

I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.

I do agree 100%, but doesn't that same logic apply to every round of the draft?  If we expand this list out to the top 10 or worse all 1st rounder, the list of busts jumps dramatically.  Why is that?



Here are teh rest of the 1st rounders in that same time period (non top 5 picks)

RND           Pick
1   24   Aaron Rodgers
1   11   Ben Roethlisberger
1   10   Blaine Gabbert
1   22   Brady Quinn
1   22   Brandon Weeden
1   7   Byron Leftwich
1   12   Cade McNown
1   18   Chad Pennington
1   12   Christian Ponder
1   11   Daunte Culpepper
1   16   E.J. Manuel
1   22   J.P. Losman
1   8   Jake Locker
1   25   Jason Campbell
1   11   Jay Cutler
1   26   Jim Druckenmiller
1   18   Joe Flacco
1   17   Josh Freeman
1   19   Kyle Boller
1   10   Matt Leinart
1   32   Patrick Ramsey
1   22   Rex Grossman
1   8   Ryan Tannehill
1   25   Tim Tebow
1   6   Trent Dilfer
: November 14, 2013, 12:22:09 PM freddy

Biggs3535

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#36 : November 14, 2013, 12:20:26 PM

I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.

If we expand this list out to the top 10 or worse all 1st rounder, the list of busts jumps dramatically.  Why is that?

Because there is a finite amount of premium level talent, which is why it's important to have a top draft pick so you have more options in that finite number.


freddy

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#37 : November 14, 2013, 12:28:14 PM

I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.

If we expand this list out to the top 10 or worse all 1st rounder, the list of busts jumps dramatically.  Why is that?

Because there is a finite amount of premium level talent, which is why it's important to have a top draft pick so you have more options in that finite number.

That is a true statement, but if the scouting is good enough to see the top 1 or 2 players, why is it so dismal in scouting the 3rd to 5th players (QB's)? 

My point is, that maybe it really isn't the scouting at all.  Even an average NFL personnel man could tell that Luck was the cream of the crop.  But when it gets to the nuts and bolts, the scouting has not been very successful of separating the busts and successes.

Biggs3535

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#38 : November 14, 2013, 12:33:42 PM

Again, because as a general rule, there aren't 5 top QBs in any draft.  Usually you have one and maybe two in any given draft.


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#39 : November 14, 2013, 12:38:07 PM

I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.

If we expand this list out to the top 10 or worse all 1st rounder, the list of busts jumps dramatically.  Why is that?

Because there is a finite amount of premium level talent, which is why it's important to have a top draft pick so you have more options in that finite number.

That is a true statement, but if the scouting is good enough to see the top 1 or 2 players, why is it so dismal in scouting the 3rd to 5th players (QB's)? 

My point is, that maybe it really isn't the scouting at all.  Even an average NFL personnel man could tell that Luck was the cream of the crop.  But when it gets to the nuts and bolts, the scouting has not been very successful of separating the busts and successes.
Because you still have to play someone and if a coach is looking at a bunch of established crappy players as his starting QB, he's going to see no other choice than to take a chance on a flawed prospect and hope he works out. I'm sure Mike Mularkey didn't think JP Losman was the next John Elway, but he knew Drew Bledsoe was washed up and didn't have any better options than rolling the dice.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

jerseybucsfan

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#40 : November 14, 2013, 03:17:59 PM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
You conveniently left out the 60.0 percent passing in his rookie year, so that the second number would represent a regression. You also leave out the fact that in two of those three years he only played about a half season because of injuries, being fragile being one of the top criticisms of him. En route to a fourth consecutive losing season.

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Lord Jenkins

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#41 : November 14, 2013, 03:17:59 PM

Try to keep in mind that draft position doesn't make a player. Drafting someone a round later won't magically make them worse and reaching on a player won't magically make them better. I understand probability and stats but come on.

Do your scouting and pick the winner.


jerseybucsfan

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#42 : November 14, 2013, 03:21:38 PM

Oh and FYI. His ypa every season has been below the league average and usually at the very bottom: 6.0, 6.1, 6.7, 6.4.
He's a dink and dunker who is 18-30-1 lifetime. No thanks.

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Booker Reese

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#43 : November 14, 2013, 03:32:09 PM

    We've had our share of first round franchise QB busts here in Tampa Bay. Freeman was just the latest. How about Trent Dilfer? And Testaverde was a bust here, although he developed into a respectable QB elsewhere. Then we traded the #1 pick for Jack Thompson, and a 2nd overall for Chris Chandler. There may be more...

I believe Chandler was in exchange for the 16th pick of the draft.

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#44 : November 14, 2013, 03:59:06 PM

I'm curious about FRG's claim that scouting is better - I think to an extent that's undeniably true. Or at least teams are better informed. On average - they have more access to film and better, more meaningful data. There are very few guys coming out totally from left-field like they did when guys scouts like Gil Brandt and Bobby Beathard were plying their trade. 

But are they actually making better decisions? With regard to QB, is it that suddenly they figured out how to scout them, or are college programs developing more of them (they certainly seem to be throwing more)? Is the NFL passing game easier on QBs than it was 10 years ago?

Gladwell has talked about these kinds of things in the past with regard to the NBA - more info doesn't necessarily better picks. I believe the concept involved is discussed in Blink.

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