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michael89156

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: January 26, 2014, 02:17:29 AM


Mike Glennon's statistical splits are really weird
 
By Sander Philipse@Sanderrp

 Jan 24 2014, 10:23pm



Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a quarterback with some pretty mediocre statistics. But if we start looking at splits, they suddenly become really weird.

Statistics are fun. You can use them to support your narrative, or to try to refute someone else's. Quarterback statistics are the best in that regard: there's just so damn many of them. One thing we can do with quarterback statistics is look at splits: what does first-half Mike Glennon look like? How does third-down passer differ from first-down passer?
 
Usually, those splits are fairly intuitive. But then I started looking at Mike Glennon's statistics on ESPN.com, and I became confused. Very, very confused.
 
First-half Mike Glennon is outstanding. He's a quarterback who can carry a team to victory, and we wouldn't even be entertaining the thought of a new passer if first-half Mike Glennon showed up for full games. Unfortunately, second-half Mike Glennon is more or less the equivalent of Blaine Gabbert.




We can explain these splits, of course. The score was generally closer in the first half, allowing the Bucs to run the ball more and help their offense that way. Theoretically that would lead to more third-and-longs, and hence to worse play on Glennon's part. Makes sense, right? Unfortunately, that doesn't actually appear to have been the case if we look at Glennon's splits by game score.




Oddly enough, Glennon actually seems to do slightly worse when winning as compared to when he's trailing or tied. He's actually better at playing catch-up than he is at preserving a lead, when the team can lean more heavily on the run and the defense can't sell out against the pass. That's just weird.
 
So, it's not the score, which means it's not the team being forced into a pass-first mentality that's causing this split. But there's something else we can look at: the down-by-down splits. If the down and distance dictate a lack of balance on offense, we would expect first-and-10 to look good, while second-and-long and third-and-long should look pretty bad. Any truth to that theory?



First down is obviously the best situation for Mike Glennon, which is exactly what we would expect, while third-and-long is also the worst result. The twelve sacks especially stand out. But second-and-long isn't really all that different from first down. Yes, the yards per attempt are significantly lower, but with a shorter distance to go the actual success rate is probably similar.
 
There's something else we can examine here: the formations used by the offense. A lack of quality tight ends limited the number of formations the Bucs could use, and they weren't very imaginative with what they did in the first place, but the results are still fairly interesting.



Glennon was actually really good in the spread, but with only 47 snaps it's not clear how telling that statistic is. The fact that he really struggled with three wide receivers on the field is what's most interesting to me. The Bucs predominantly used three wide receivers on passing downs and in two-minute drills -- and this is where he really struggled.
 
When the Bucs presented a run-first formation and when they more often used play-action, Glennon looked a lot better. The 8.5 yards per attempt are very significant, while he also took few sacks. The TD-INT ratio is less promising, but given the small sample size I don't think that split is particularly interesting -- it's too heavily influenced by variance. And part of that ratio is that the Bucs ran very few red-zone passes out of two-wide receiver sets.
 
While these statistics are all interesting, I'm not sure they tell us all that much about Mike Glennon's future. He did show that he at least could be a functional game manager, who would do well when managed well and when the team could keep away from third-and-long. Unfortunately, you'll face some long third downs in every game, and to really help your team win, your quarterback needs to be able to convert those opportunities.
 
But the fact that he couldn't do that last year, when he had a somewhat limited supply of weapons, doesn't mean that he won't be able to learn to do that with Jeff Tedford's help. It also doesn't mean that any of the available quarterbacks, whether in the draft or free agency, would do any better. In other words: we still don't know anything. But at least all these numbers are interesting, right?



http://www.bucsnation.com/2014/1/24/5341118/mike-glennons-statistical-splits-are-really-weird

Benchwarmer#1

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#1 : January 26, 2014, 03:21:49 AM

I'm confused. Is this guy pro/con glennon?

The Anti-Java

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#2 : January 26, 2014, 03:27:06 AM

Half time adjustments by coaches that know what they are doing?


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Benchwarmer#1

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#3 : January 26, 2014, 03:31:16 AM

What....?

A ham sandwich and some mac and cheese is the best halftime adjustment there could be. You're nuts.

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#4 : January 26, 2014, 03:51:28 AM

What....?

A ham sandwich and some mac and cheese is the best halftime adjustment there could be. You're nuts.


LOL

I would like to see Glennon working with Trestman or Mike McCoy.  Good coaches.


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#5 : January 26, 2014, 04:49:15 AM

This is why I'd like to see Glennon in a scheme that isn't chuck n pray. Lets face it, no QB was going to succeed in our failure offense last year and for Glennon to put up the numbers he did is a plus point for him. Give him an offseason with a vet QB to actually push him in TC and in a scheme that is designed for the strength of the players, if he fails then look to get a QB in next years draft as I'm totally uninterested in any of the over hyped candidates of this years draft.

CalicoJack55

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#6 : January 26, 2014, 09:50:51 AM

This team hasn't played full 4 qtr games in at least 5 1/4 years...


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#7 : January 26, 2014, 09:52:58 AM

We were dead last in 2nd half points with 5.2......that's 5.2 points averaged in the entire second half of each game. I don't think Glennon was the only problem, but that is a pretty damning number. Next closest was Jacksonville with 6.7. We were historically awful.

Draft Aaron Donald



TheChronicHotAir

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#8 : January 26, 2014, 10:00:04 AM

What....?

A ham sandwich and some mac and cheese is the best halftime adjustment there could be. You're nuts.


LOL

I would like to see Glennon working with Trestman or Mike McCoy.  Good coaches.

I would like to see Glennon working with Gatorade or Big Chief Tablet.  Good fit.


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Dolorous Jason

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#9 : January 26, 2014, 10:07:11 AM

I want to see Glennon with a real coaching staff around him.

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

TheChronicHotAir

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#10 : January 26, 2014, 10:10:58 AM

I want to see Glennon with a real coaching staff around him.

They have a word for that-- it's called "an experiment".

Haven't we seen enough "experiments" in the last 5 years??


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Dolorous Jason

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#11 : January 26, 2014, 10:15:04 AM

I want to see Glennon with a real coaching staff around him.

They have a word for that-- it's called "an experiment".

Haven't we seen enough "experiments" in the last 5 years??

Personally I'd call it Due Diligence .

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

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#12 : January 26, 2014, 10:20:33 AM

I didn't even read the article....when you play for a coach that thinks half time is just for snacks and a potty break, .....you're gonna have a bad time.

dalbuc

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#13 : January 26, 2014, 10:21:49 AM

The more you look deep into his stats the more a lot of the myths fall apart about dink and dunk and chokes when the score is close. Things clearly get worse in the second half but "choking" isn't an explanation for what went wrong.  One really does get to a loss trying to explain it because defenses don't take that long to adjust to what we are doing, or shouldn't.  It really isn something so inexplicable as to possibly mean nothing...he is what his totals say he is and he just happened to get there in a very odd way b

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

TheChronicHotAir

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#14 : January 26, 2014, 10:23:59 AM

I want to see Glennon with a real coaching staff around him.

They have a word for that-- it's called "an experiment".

Haven't we seen enough "experiments" in the last 5 years??

Personally I'd call it Due Diligence .

Due Diligence is for the OFF-SEASON.
KICKING ASS & TAKING NAMES is the goal once the season starts.


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