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dbucfan

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« #15 : March 02, 2014, 10:04:44 AM »

IIRC Bush announced the business day was over and invited his staff and cohorts to Happy Hour.  Am I right?

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

gbobucsfan

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« #16 : March 02, 2014, 10:41:53 AM »

Please excuse my utter and complete ignorance on the subject but why does the US care if Russia invades Ukraine?  Yes this is a serious question, politics have never interested me until recently.   

Sailing2smth

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« #17 : March 02, 2014, 11:51:01 AM »

Please excuse my utter and complete ignorance on the subject but why does the US care if Russia invades Ukraine?  Yes this is a serious question, politics have never interested me until recently.   

Good question - bottomline, huge strategic value to the US and EU to separate Ukraine from Russia, and admittance into the EU and NATO (which would take years).  Then what would stop the US to position american troops right on the doorstep of the kremlin.
That has never been done before and other presidents have tried - all have failed.   

Ukraine has strategic value being that they are a border county to Russia and was part of the previous USSR structure.  Ukraine has long had an allegiance to Russia, mainly because Russia supplies Ukraine with natural gas/oil and other financial and economic needs. 
The Bush administration attempted to test Russia foreign policy by trying to tilt both Georgia and Ukraine into the EU and into NATO alliance.  This would have been a huge strategic and political defeat to Putin and Russia, long story short - it did not happen.


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« #18 : March 02, 2014, 11:52:28 AM »

Please excuse my utter and complete ignorance on the subject but why does the US care if Russia invades Ukraine?  Yes this is a serious question, politics have never interested me until recently.   

Fairly simple, you are looking at the remnants of the old Soviet Union here and the biggest chunk. Russia has already got Kazakshtan and Belorus back into their new Soviet Union, the Eurasian Union. They were trying to rope the Ukraine back into band. The Maidan revolt was against the reintegration into the Russian Empire. If the west abandons Ukriane you are looking basically a return to your Cold War era sphere of Russian influence and domination because countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, Estonia and likely Poland and Slovakia are going to realize the west can't or won't help them in the face of Putin's aggression.  I realpolitik concerns you are allowing the reformation of another major power to operate counter to the wishes of the West. Unlike the last time we slapped the Soviets down the Chinese are a much, MUCH bigger player. You can effectively kiss good bye the moment of the wave of freedom that started in the 1990s. That is a less stable, less free and less prosperous world.

Toss on top of that that the USA is party toot one but two agreements (Budapest Agreement) and a NATO declaration that affirm the sovereignty and territorial integrity and inviability of the Ukraine so international credible beyond Eastern Europe is on the line. Also, of course, the is the moral component that Putin is a human rights violating dictatorial **CENSORED**bag and he's not concerned about Russians being second class citizens in Crimea because they are already second class citizens in Russia.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

dbucfan

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« #19 : March 02, 2014, 12:09:49 PM »

And there is the part where the recent actions of the US in other areas of the world haven't been successful, i.e. the Arab spring, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, and now Iraq, and the rest of the world which looked at the US as a solid, dependable partner gets to watch as sand in kicked in the US's proverbial face... And in a game where perceived strength is huge, well the US has been pissing any positive perceptions away... proverbially speaking. jmvho

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

Sailing2smth

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« #20 : March 02, 2014, 12:33:06 PM »

And using the same argument and logic, Putin could invade Ukraine mainland because there are millions of Russians who live on the eastern Ukrainian border - what is to stop him from taking his crown jewel, Ukraine - by force.  Also, as a previous poster mentioned, Poland and Belarus better be ready for an embrace with the Red Army.

But seriously - this is an issue that this administration must respond to effectively and immediately, not only because of what is perceived of the US worldwide, but to show Putin that he will not unilaterally dictate central and eastern European policy  while snubbing US doctrine.  The US must do everything in its power both diplomatically and economically to cripple the kremlin because getting into a war is not an option...not with Russia.

dalbuc

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« #21 : March 02, 2014, 02:18:17 PM »

Well sadly Putin doesn't care about diplomacy and there isn't much economically we can do to him.  At this point, he has already won. He has troops on the ground and control of the region. The game is over and we can't even get ourselves and our allies to agree what game we are playing. 

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

dbucfan

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« #22 : March 02, 2014, 03:15:41 PM »

Putin can look at US economics and decide the US isn't going to get too involved in an economic struggle (such as the arms races of the past) for several years (the balance of Obama's term and a recovery from his policies), and I agree allied trust/participation in US plans is pretty much a thing of the past.  Another element that will be an issue for several years

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

gone

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« #23 : March 02, 2014, 05:07:24 PM »

Please excuse my utter and complete ignorance on the subject but why does the US care if Russia invades Ukraine?  Yes this is a serious question, politics have never interested me until recently.   

Putin has repeatedly referred to the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest calamity" of the last hundred years.  He wants it back.  While it will never be what it was, he is capable of making Russia into a great power again.  And that will bring us right back where we were before Regan.  This time with Russia closely aligned with both China and Islamic dictatorships. 

cyberdude558

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« #24 : March 02, 2014, 09:23:27 PM »

I dont know about China. They've seemed to have charted their own course since the 1970s and are more recluse in terms of their military and took a different route than Russia. They care more about expanding their influence economically. The US and China are also too linked economically these days for really either one to put pressure on each other for anything. Too much money at stake.

Iran and Syria though is going to continue to be a problem.

alldaway

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« #25 : March 02, 2014, 09:35:33 PM »

The "current" Ukrainian government that seized power outlawed two major opposition parties so the chance of fair elections in a few months seems unlikely.  The Russians are arguing that they have legal grounds to protect assets in Crimea, and since Ukraine gave them the keys to the door (an agreement) in hindsight that seems like a bad idea.

Since Poland has mobilized forces near their own border and Ukraine has initiated a draft it seems that it is best the United States doesn't jump head first into the fray or else the situation spirals out of control.  Indeed, Putin made the first move knowing that the West would take a few weeks to calculate a counter to what he has done.  But there are still unknowns that even Putin did not anticipate (eg Poland mobilizing forces, G7 members response).


« : March 02, 2014, 09:39:13 PM alldaway »

cyberdude558

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« #26 : March 02, 2014, 09:42:35 PM »

Joint statement released by the G7...


We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the President of the European Council and President of the European Commission, join together today to condemn the Russian Federation’s clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in contravention of Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter and its 1997 basing agreement with Ukraine. We call on Russia to address any ongoing security or human rights concerns that it has with Ukraine through direct negotiations, and/or via international observation or mediation under the ausp!ces of the UN or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. We stand ready to assist with these efforts.

We also call on all parties concerned to behave with the greatest extent of self-restraint and responsibility, and to decrease the tensions.

We note that Russia’s actions in Ukraine also contravene the principles and values on which the G-7 and the G-8 operate. As such, we have decided for the time being to suspend our participation in activities associated with the preparation of the scheduled G-8 Summit in Sochi in June, until the environment comes back where the G-8 is able to have meaningful discussion.

We are united in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its right to choose its own future. We commit ourselves to support Ukraine in its efforts to restore unity, stability, and political and economic health to the country. To that end, we will support Ukraine’s work with the International Monetary Fund to negotiate a new program and to implement needed reforms. IMF support will be critical in unlocking additional assistance from the World Bank, other international financial institutions, the EU, and bilateral sources.



So Russia is risking political and economic isolation from the west.
« : March 02, 2014, 09:45:08 PM cyberdude558 »

alldaway

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« #27 : March 02, 2014, 09:53:24 PM »

Putin holds most of the cards...economic isolation isn't likely as Europe is heavily reliant on NG.  Saudi Arabia cant make up for the amount of oil barrels from Russia, etc.

In such a situation where the West is in a defensive situation you have to play the few cards you have right and don't do anything rash. 

The other problem is the Svoboda Party isn't sunshine and lollipops either so the West can't back them directly, especially Germany.


Sailing2smth

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« #28 : March 03, 2014, 02:19:16 AM »

Even with Poland and Ukraine mobilizing their forces, it still is not enough to match Russia.  No, they would need to resort to guerrilla warfare/asymmetric warfare tactics and not go out the Red Army head on - would be their only chance.  The problem is that the current (temporary) Ukraine regime is not considered to be a legitimate government - and nobody (to include most Ukrainians) do not respect them as such.  Now other governments want to support them because primarily, they are not pro-Russian.  But at what cost because it is unlikely that any US/EU state will provide boots on ground in support of Ukraine.  Which is why, what is to stop Russia from further polarizing former Soviet states to form the Eurasian Union.  However, I disagree with the fact that the EU is solely dependent on Russia for natural gas.  While it is true that they do import natural gas and crude oil from Russia, that is not there only supplier.  Norway and Algeria also exports crude oil and natural gas, and there are countries in the middle east that could also begin to export.  But in the meantime, that could wreak havoc on (temporarily) on EU economies because Russia could virtually [overnight] shut down that trade relation, with no remorse.  It could have an effect on their export trade revenues, and if the US/EU begin more economic sanctions targeting specific members, freezing business and trade assets such as contracts Russia has with numerous other countries - that will have a lasting affect on their currency which could lead Russia back into the same fray they saw in 1991 when Russia crumbled.  Especially now that the G7 leaders are all in agreement that this action could isolate Russia from the international community.  There are cards that the US and EU can play here that does not necessarily need to lead to direct combat, which would be devastating, in particular to the US. 

cyberdude558

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« #29 : March 03, 2014, 08:14:21 AM »

Russian financial markets are crashing. The Russian stock market lost 10%. And the Ruble falls to historic lows against both the Euro and the USD.

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