Money Magazine: Expert on Real Estate Market: Uh-oh...

[ufojoe]

I have no idea if these guys are right. I know nothing when it comes to this stuff.

But for home owners or ones thinking about buying, I figured they might want to see this stuff.

[Morgan]

Based on the type of house Java is looking for:

Property tax = $650 ($8k a year for a $350k home)
Home owners = $250 ($3000 a year)
Electric = $200 ($2400 a year)
Phone/Internet/Cable = $150
Water = $50
Community Fees = $100 (most newer subdivisions are more)
Bug/Lawn Chemicals/Service = $100
Gas (car) = $200

That totals up to $1700.   Add the cost of buying/servicing a car, a little food and you will be pretty close to $3k.  If you want to actually do anything worthwhile like Golf or Scuba then the monthly budget really gets out of control.

$36k/yr is about what the Army will pay me to retire soon.   Thanks for the financial advice - but I don't see Buc season tickets on your breakdown.

[mjs020294]

$36k/yr is about what the Army will pay me to retire soon. Thanks for the financial advice - but I don't see Buc season tickets on your breakdown.

You can live cheaper than that, I just used figures based on a decent sized family house.  We have a few ex-military on our street, and all of them work in some capacity.  A guy that was looking at the vacant house next door was retiring but had already found civilian work at McDill AFB.

[JavaBuc]

He said that the median price for homes sold in 2007 would fall by 1 percent to 3 percent, which would be the first price decline for an entire year on the Realtors' records, which go back four decades.

WOW.....that is a bad crash.

It would be the worst in history.   I think it will fall far more than that though.

[mjs020294]

He said that the median price for homes sold in 2007 would fall by 1 percent to 3 percent, which would be the first price decline for an entire year on the Realtors' records, which go back four decades.

WOW.....that is a bad crash.

It would be the worst in history. I think it will fall far more than that though.

1-3% this year is barely a fall in prices.    If that is the biggest fall in history it just shows you how rare house price deflation is.

Now some of the builders are slowing down and sellers are delisting or renting property the demand will eventually catch up with the supply.   Some of the newer areas that people rushed to like Fishawk Ranch and north of Tampa will take a beating though.   It will take a year or two and some areas will see falls of 10-20% but once consumer confidence returns those losses will be recoup pretty quickly.

[JavaBuc]

but once consumer confidence returns those losses will be recoup pretty quickly.

I honestly don't see how.  People without equity don't have enough money to buy houses at those prices.   I really think prices will drop 30%.  Not only in the usa, but worldwide.   Prices went up fast all over the world and it was unjustified.

[mjs020294]

I honestly don't see how. People without equity don't have enough money to buy houses at those prices. I really think prices will drop 30%. Not only in the usa, but worldwide. Prices went up fast all over the world and it was unjustified.

The house prices in the UK never go down Java, and they have had many two or three year periods where prices have doubled.  House prices aren't like the stock market, they don't crash unless the local economy dies, like when a steel mill closes down.

Do you pluck figures out of the air without really thinking about it?  The average house that was $300k in 2001 is now worth $500k.   If the market fell 30% the price would be back down to $350k practically wiping out all the gains of the last 6 years.   

Prices in Tampa might drop 10% in some areas, mainly the areas that saw the largest rises.  Once the market settles down there are plenty of people with equity, and retirees, plus foreigners that will drive the market in Florida. 

BTW – The average home sold in the US went up in March, rising by $2,000 to $254,000.

[JavaBuc]

I'm not sure why you use the UK as a comparison every time.    If you want to talk about a foreign country as comparison, how about Hong Kong?   Their real estate values dropped almost 40% a few years ago.

[mjs020294]

I'm not sure why you use the UK as a comparison every time.    If you want to talk about a foreign country as comparison, how about Hong Kong?   Their real estate values dropped almost 40% a few years ago.

Hong Kong isn’t a country.  You can’t seriously think a principality once governed by the UK and transitioning to Chinese rule is a good example of anything. 

The UK is a western country with a similar culture and business environment.  The prices in Florida aren’t that bad, take a look at California or NY.

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

I agree, mjs.  When we moved to Florida in 1991, I couldn't believe how cheap houses were (coming from Connecticut.)  Yes, they've gone up a lot since then, but still are way cheaper than up north.  I think that as long as Florida is in the pocket of the real estate developers, prices will continue to be low here in comparison to the rest of the country.  Yes, there'll be some corrections, like a few percentage points down from the huge recent gains, but the prices will remain relatively low.

Any state that lets developers just bulldoze over wetlands, filling them in and raising them up, building whatever they want with very little regulation, and very low impact fees, will continue to have huge growth and low prices.

[JavaBuc]

You guys are comparing California, NY and Connecticut to Florida?   How about comparing the salaries for those places to Florida?  They are WAY higher.    If they increased the salaries in Florida to be the same as those other areas, then the real estate would be fairly priced.    The way it is now, it's ridiculous.   The salaries in the area don't justify prices that high.

[mjs020294]

You guys are comparing California, NY and Connecticut to Florida? How about comparing the salaries for those places to Florida? They are WAY higher. If they increased the salaries in Florida to be the same as those other areas, then the real estate would be fairly priced. The way it is now, it's ridiculous. The salaries in the area don't justify prices that high.

Florida is fairly unique for a few reasons.  It is a retirement hotspot, a vacation hotspot and a lot of people want to work and live in the sun.  The salaries are higher in the places you mentioned but the property prices are much higher.

Take NY for an example:  Someone that earns $50k in Tampa would earn about $70k in NY.  The average house in Tampa is probable around $300k and the average price in NY is probably around $600k.

Sure salaries are about 40% higher in NY but the taxes are higher and the houses are off the scale.  There is still plenty of room for house price inflation in Florida for three key reasons:  Northerners and Snowbirds moving down south with NY type money; Foreigners exploiting the weak dollar; and finally the vast majority of people are already on the housing ladder so they have equity.

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

The standard of living is actually higher in Florida than CT for my profession; although the pay is higher in CT, the housing prices and other higher cost-of-living items cancel it out.  California is one place I could do better, though, as the pay is higher proportionately than the cost of living.  One place I checked in California, my standard of living would go up 38 percent.

[mjs020294]

One place I checked in California, my standard of living would go up 38 percent.

The cost of housing is crazy over there isn't it.

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

Yes! It's insane, but with the rise in salary I'd get (they have unions there) it would more than balance out.  Texas is another good option for nurses, but I don't want to live in Texas.