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JavaBuc

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: May 04, 2007, 06:35:50 AM

I thought this article from bucpower (taken from Pro football weekly) was interesting:



First-round picks traditionally are a 50-50 proposition
It’s just a matter of fact: About half of the first-round picks from Saturday will fail. And though "fail" is a subjective term, not fulfilling expectations is another way of saying it. Basically, 16 of the 32 first-round picks will come up short.

It’s true. Go back and look at any draft in the past 20 years. It’s about a 50-50 shot. There might not be a cut-and-dry definition of what success entails. Take, for instance, Marc Colombo. He suffered injuries in Chicago after being taken by the Bears with their first pick in 2002, and though he never made it there, he has become a productive pro with the Cowboys. Chalk Colombo as a circuitous success, though the Bears never saw the benefit of any rewards.

That said, applying the 50 percent rule to this year’s class, it’s impossible to say which guys will succeed and which will flunk out. Some will get hurt unexpectedly — there’s a Yatil Green every few years, guys who should have made it — and some will get dealt a bad hand.

And this is all assuming that we have a fairly consistent standard deviation in terms of talent. In truth, many NFL people shrugged at this year’s talent pool, writing it off somewhat as shallow and uninspiring. No way will it approach the greatness of last year’s banner rookie class, at least not right away. But let’s make our best guess, picks 1-32, at which players ultimately will fare well in the league. There will be 16 “booms” and 16 “busts.”

1. Oakland — QB JaMarcus Russell — Prediction: Bust
Like Nolan Nawrocki, who follows this stuff more closely than I do, I just have a hard time thinking that Russell is going to meet the extremely high expectations that have been put on him. His talent ceiling is undeniable, but I never really saw those moments of brilliance in college on a regular basis, and I watched a fair number of LSU games. Russell might not be enough of a gym rat and a worker to get it done. Years from now, Russell will be seen as Al Davis' final big mistake as the team's owner.

2. Detroit — WR Calvin Johnson — Prediction: Boom
How can this kid not do well? (Bad question to ask of a Lions player.) But really, there are too many reasons to think that he’ll be the best player to come out of this draft when we look back three years from now and beyond. With Roy Williams opposite Johnson, we’ll be comparing this pair to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin very soon and arguing over which is the best WR combo in the league.

3. Cleveland — OLT Joe Thomas — Prediction: Bust
I hate to do this because I think Thomas is a good kid and a good player, but ultimately, I think he’ll be moved to right tackle. Now, he might end up being a serviceable player at that spot, but I never have seen that dominant streak that defines the league’s great left tackles. Jonathan Ogden had it. Orlando Pace still has it. Walter Jones. William Thomas. Chris Samuels. All of them play with an edge, but I rarely see that out of Thomas. The problem is that his becoming a solid, eight-year starter at right tackle has to be deemed a failure for a No. 3 pick.

4. Tampa Bay — DE Gaines Adams — Prediction: Bust
There are some guys whom you just get a bad feeling about, and it’s tough to put your finger on it. There are many things to love about Adams, including the fact that it often looks like he is shot out of a gun when he pins his ears back and attacks the quarterback or picks up a loose ball. But there are enough questions about his character and intelligence, starting his career out on a transitioning Bucs club, that scare me off.

5. Arizona — OT Levi Brown — Prediction: Boom
This might come as a surprise, seeing as how Brown needs more refinement than Thomas, but if Levi is good enough for the Mushroom Society, the exclusive, semi-secret sect of OL coaches around the league, he’s good enough for me. I say he turns into what the franchise thought Leonard Davis could be.

6. Washington — FS LaRon Landry — Prediction: Boom
Landry is a good football player, and he fills a need with the Redskins. He should help get Sean Taylor’s head back on straight, and the defensive scheme will be set up to allow Landry to make plays. Is he going to help the Redskins improve significantly this season? Probably not all that much, but I like his chances to be good.

7. Minnesota — RB Adrian Peterson — Prediction: Boom
The only thing that will keep Peterson from being great would be injuries. Maybe he’s not an ideal fit in this offense, but he sure can run. And I think he'll learn to run in a way that preserves him for a longer career.

8. Atlanta — DE Jamaal Anderson — Prediction: Bust
This is one I struggled with. Although I like Anderson’s production and grade him higher for doing well against SEC teams, I see him as a classic ’tweener: not explosive enough as a pure pass rusher and not enough of a beast against the run. My guess is that he’ll turn into a pretty good player, but never a great one. Think a poor man’s Adewale Ogunleye.

9. Miami — WR-RS Ted Ginn — Prediction: Bust
He has something you can’t teach, but like many other people, I am not convinced that he’ll ever get it as a receiver. I just don’t salivate when I think about John Beck throwing to Ginn. Maybe he’ll be a good punt returner, but as great as Devin Hester was last year, no one in their right mind would say he was worth taking with the ninth pick in the draft.

10. Houston — DT Amobi Okoye — Prediction: Bust
Boy, I am harsh, eh? Basically any kid with potential is a dog in this draft so far. In reality, I just think he’s going to fall short of expectations, given that he might not get better from this point on. People talk about how advanced he is for his age, but I can tell you I can’t think of too many 19- or 20-year-olds anywhere who can handle the bright lights and distractions of the NFL.

BOOM
11. San Francisco — LB Patrick Willis, 13. St. Louis — DE Adam Carriker, 14. N.Y. Jets — CB Darrelle Revis, 15. Pittsburgh — LB Lawrence Timmons, 19. Tennessee — S Michael Griffin, 22. Cleveland — QB Brady Quinn, 24. New England — FS Brandon Meriweather, 25. Carolina — LB Jon Beason , 26. Dallas — OLB-DE Anthony Spencer, 27. New Orleans — WR Robert Meachem, 29. Baltimore — OG Ben Grubbs, 32. Indianapolis — WR Anthony Gonzalez

BUST
12. Buffalo — RB Marshawn Lynch, 16. Green Bay — DT Justin Harrell, 17. Denver — DE Jarvis Moss, 18. Cincinnati — CB Leon Hall, 20. N.Y. Giants — CB Aaron Ross, 21. Jacksonville — FS Reggie Nelson, 23. Kansas City — WR Dwayne Bowe, 28. San Francisco — OT Joe Staley, 30. San Diego — WR Craig Davis, 31. Chicago — TE Greg Olsen

Eric Edholm , Pro Football Weekly 3 May 2007

coolhandluke

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#1 : May 04, 2007, 06:56:05 AM

WHOOPS, I thought this was another "DAMN" thread when I saw BOOM or BUST..

Carry on

flyinbuc

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#2 : May 04, 2007, 08:55:07 AM

very incitefull, why dont we separate the boom and bust by how many letters in the last name evens boom odds bust.

JavaBuc

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#3 : May 04, 2007, 09:04:17 AM

very incitefull, why dont we separate the boom and bust by how many letters in the last name evens boom odds bust.

That would be an interesting study.

Skull and Bones

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#4 : May 04, 2007, 09:05:02 AM

Disagree about Thomas being move to RT.  Levi Brown is the guy I see having to be moved there.  I also I see Peterson being an injury bust and think Adams is a relatively safe pick.  Other than that I agree with his predictions.


dalbuc

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#5 : May 04, 2007, 09:10:21 AM

Again, given the 50-50 nature that list is about as good as any other on that. As long as Ginn is in your bust list you are already ahead of the game.

I think the problem with Adams on that list his his consistent production and not just potential (Okoye and Anderson) is what got him drafted.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

umguy1999

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#6 : May 04, 2007, 09:35:19 AM

I would agree with him other than about Adams because his reason was weak "Something about him", he pretty much said he was dumb and had character issues, you don't have to be Einstein to play DE, IMO Reggie White was dumb as a stump and had no common sense and made George Bush sound like James Earl Jones reciting Shakespeare.
I didn't know he had Character Issues, what were they?

Skull and Bones

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#7 : May 04, 2007, 09:42:17 AM

didn't he have a 7 wonderlick score?  How could he make it thru 4 years of college? Simply amazing.


Feel Real Good

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#8 : May 04, 2007, 09:45:51 AM

didn't he have a 7 wonderlick score? How could he make it thru 4 years of college? Simply amazing.
Not saying he's a genius, but if you're in Indianapolis to run some drills that will determine the rest of your life, how much attention span are you going to have for some stupid test?

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

Tampa Bay Todd

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#9 : May 04, 2007, 09:46:15 AM

And how could Dexter Manley make it as far as he did without being able to read?
Love these "studies" because it's purely speculation and guessing. So many factors play into success. We'll have to wait and see.


GameTime

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#10 : May 04, 2007, 09:49:12 AM

Disagree about Thomas being move to RT.  Levi Brown is the guy I see having to be moved there. 

he plays for a lefty QB...would it be an honor to play RT there?

\"Lets put the O back in Country\"

Skull and Bones

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#11 : May 04, 2007, 09:59:44 AM

Disagree about Thomas being move to RT. Levi Brown is the guy I see having to be moved there.

he plays for a lefty QB...would it be an honor to play RT there?

probably why they reached for him at #5.  He won't be matched up against the speed rushers.


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#12 : May 04, 2007, 10:03:07 AM

Disagree about Thomas being move to RT. Levi Brown is the guy I see having to be moved there.

he plays for a lefty QB...would it be an honor to play RT there?

probably why they reached for him at #5. He won't be matched up against the speed rushers.
But how many times does Dwight Freeney or Simeon Rice line up on the other side because the quarterback is left handed?

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

Skull and Bones

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#13 : May 04, 2007, 10:04:42 AM

And how could Dexter Manley make it as far as he did without being able to read?
Love these "studies" because it's purely speculation and guessing. So many factors play into success. We'll have to wait and see.

I thought college athletics had evolved since the days of Dexter Manley but I guess not.  Maybe the NFL should start some kind of farm system for those prospects that have no business or real desire to go to get a higher education.


Skull and Bones

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#14 : May 04, 2007, 10:07:53 AM

Disagree about Thomas being move to RT. Levi Brown is the guy I see having to be moved there.

he plays for a lefty QB...would it be an honor to play RT there?

probably why they reached for him at #5. He won't be matched up against the speed rushers.
But how many times does Dwight Freeney or Simeon Rice line up on the other side because the quarterback is left handed?


To be honest I've never noticed. But I'm sure they do try to create mismatches.

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