Welcome, Guest
Pewter Report  >>  Boards  >>  The Red Board (Moderators: 3rd String Kicker, PRPatrol)  >>  Topic: Boom or Bust? « previous next »
Page: 1 2 3 4

bklynbucs11

****
Starter

Posts : 740
Offline
#45 : May 05, 2007, 11:28:27 AM

Thats the trouble with "statistics" ike 50% boom/50% bust rates. They are RIDICULOUSLY skewed across positions. If you want to look at true stats, its best to look at top-15 selections. First round collectively skews results - particularly for "Safe" positions such as LT.

For instance - LT's drafted in the top-15, historically have a 75% percent chance of success. This isn't a number pulled out of my ass either. Thereh ave been 17 tackles drafted in hte top-15 since 1996 - 4 have been busts. Go back to 1993 - that % increases to 80%. However, fall out of the top 15, the percentage plummets to the tune of slightly <50% success.

However, even more safe of a position is DE. Since 1995 (I don't remember players before that so I can't speak accurately), there have been a whalloping 32 DE/OLB's drafted (almost twice as many as LT's - which should produce worse results). Except htat, when you really look at it, there have only been 9 busts, which = 72.5% success rate. Slightly lower than LT's - but thats because there's a much bigger sample. And if you exclude Andrew Wadsworth - who was just incredibly unlucky with injury, the percentage goes up to 75%. WIth DE's, that percentage drops down to about 50% after top-15.


SO where, statistically, do all these busts come from? Easy answer - wide receivers (55-60% success rate), RB's (<50% success rate), Quarterbacks (<50% success), and ESPECIALLY cornerbacks (<45% success rate - despite the fact that there have been at least 4 corners drafted in the first round in each of the last 10 years).

Its nearly impossible to imagine CJ not succeeding (except of course as a product of the terrible LIons franchise). Statsitiscally, Gaines, Thomas and Brown have history on their side to prove that its unlikely they will turn into busts.




umguy1999

*
Practice Squad

Posts : 0
Offline
#46 : May 05, 2007, 11:38:19 AM

If someones goal is simply getting drafted then crying is understandable, if a player is striving to be the best and has that hunger and drive in him crying after being drafted is not the reaction I would expect. Rocky didn't cry when he got a shot at the title he cried when he stood in there with the best and got a draw. Benson cried when he got the shot.

gone

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 9244
Offline
#47 : May 05, 2007, 01:46:33 PM

Different people have different reactions to events.  This whole "didn't smile" thing is ridiculous. 

And CJ was almost crying with relief when oakland didn't pick him.  Guess he should have saved that for the SB though...

The White Tiger

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 11371
Offline
#48 : May 05, 2007, 04:38:29 PM

I had the same reaction as you Java - someone posted this for me in another thread. The link explains Gaines, and his lack of emotional reaction:
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/9/1/92274219.html

I just now watched the first round of the draft.  I downloaded it from the internet.   Gaines was the only guy drafted in the entire round who didn't smile.   I found that strange.

But he's smiling in this picture. Maybe it was just nerves at the draft.






Incomparable sig by Incognito

4bucs

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 14164
Offline
#49 : May 06, 2007, 03:49:51 AM

He appears to be layed back and soft spoken.....we had a guy like that once ...now what was his name.....his brother was a linebacker and he played at NEBRASKA...what was his name...Selmon I believe ;D

JavaBuc

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 28661
Offline
#50 : May 06, 2007, 07:23:32 AM

He appears to be layed back and soft spoken.....we had a guy like that once ...now what was his name.....his brother was a linebacker and he played at NEBRASKA...what was his name...Selmon I believe 

Selmon?   How about Booker Reese?

Booker was also quite laid back and soft spoken.   But I have a feeling Booker's score on the wonderlic would more closely resemble Gaines' score than LeeRoy's would.

I don't know any Selmon's who played at Nebraska though.    LeeRoy, Dewey and Lucious Selmon all played college football at Oklahoma.

I was watching some video of Gaines the other day.   He kind of reminds me of Broderick Thomas.

Page: 1 2 3 4
Pewter Report  >>  Boards  >>  The Red Board (Moderators: 3rd String Kicker, PRPatrol)  >>  Topic: Boom or Bust? « previous next »
:

Hide Tools Show Tools