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alldaway

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ę #135 : June 08, 2007, 06:37:11 PM Ľ


Nice that you repeated the concept dal, but Buenning and Joseph were BOTH hurt at the onset of the season - and there was nothing to be done. Adding in yatta's injury and three supposed starters were either disabled or playing injured - and that is an issue for any team, and a disaster for one which was already wanting on the oline.

Yeah but Davin obviously played so it isn't like he was gone ALL season long. Davin started 12 games so 3/4 of the season Caddy has no excuse. You notice Caddy didn't get better as the year worse on. He averaged 2.5 ypc in December when that line was at it's peak. He stared the year with 3 games under 3.0 ypc and ended with 3 games under 3.0 ypc ina nice sort of symmetry.

I call shenanigans if the Bucs o-line in 2006 was at its peak with Buenning out and Mahan in.

His point was that Mahan was there both years, so you can't really pin the 2006 troubles on him. 

Yes you can.

The left side was not vastly superior to the right side in 2005.  But it sill was better (LG Buenning/LT Davis) no matter how you slice it (RG Mahan/ RT Walker).

The Bucs drafted Davin Joseph and had him slated to play right guard.  Reason being? Mahan was the weakest link.  Buenning was not the weakest link.

But not having Buenning 100% healthy and putting the weakest link back onto the field exposed this time the leftside.  Davis was not playing too hot in 2006 but is it fair to blame him since Mahan was next to him?

A chain is as strong as the weakest link.  Mahan went from the right to left and has been consistently the weakest link the past two years.

Coaching is the biggest factor (Muir) but Mahan has been a factor as well.  And frankly Muir and Mahan are joined at the hip as far as I am concerned.

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ę #136 : June 08, 2007, 06:59:13 PM Ľ


I call shenanigans if the Bucs o-line in 2006 was at its peak with Buenning out and Mahan in.

That line in December was as good as that line was gonna get last year in terms of the rookies being at their peak. Obviously the line is better without Mahan on it.

Still, Beunning played in games 2 and 3 when Caddy popped those 2.5 ypc efforts and that made it the same line he ran behind as in 2005 and ATL and CAR had average to awful run defenses last year - oh yeah and Simms was a the QB so teams couldn't "stack the line".

you're much more intelligent than what you've been typing here. This team was behind the entire season which limits Caddy's carries and chances to bust one. He didn't improve, there's no doubting that, but given the chances Caddy will produce in this league. Last year can't be washed away but it's clearly not productive to evaluate anything offensively last year on statisitcs.


Being behind should help your YPC figure - teams are basically giving you the run. It is why Pittman's ypc is no nifty now- all he does in run in passing situations. His raw totals are down but his ypc isn't related to that number of carries.

Of course, one reason we were behind was that he wasn't doing his job and getting yards for us on the ground. In over half the games he played he averaged LESS than 2.9 ypc (that'd be 8 BTW). That's a line that can't just be explained by the line or "men in the box". I mean Jamal Lewis had an awful year lasy year and did the same thing 3 times (also had a similar 3.6 ypc figure). Even as mediocre a back behind as poor a line as Ruben Droughns only did that 6 times.

There's no doubt the line didn't help Caddy a ton last year but it really didn't help him a ton in 2005. He made that line look a lot better than it was that year. He's never gonna be the rushing champ with a line like last year but there's just no reason to have as pitiful a season as he did without looking at the RB for a big chunk of that blame.
What are you talking about? What happen the last two games Pittman started last year verse the Browns and the Seahawks..Pittman Avg over 5 yards in the Cleavand game and over 7 yards on the ground in the seattle game, and could of easily went over a 100 yards in both of them. And wasn't Pittman longest run of the season on 1st down last year.. 30 plus yards against the Seahawks. And how about the year before that when he broke against the Saints ON " 1st Down" and he took it 60 plus yards...and what about the Miami game same year when it was 3rd and short and Pittman made 3 people miss and took it 50 plus yards for a TD. dalbuc get some facts first before you try to present your case.. cause I'm sorry brother you dont have one. All of Pittman's longest runs last year and the year before came either on 1st down or 3rd and short not in "obvious passing situations"...your wrong.. Now go back and do some more research.

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ę #137 : June 08, 2007, 07:03:53 PM Ľ


Nice that you repeated the concept dal, but Buenning and Joseph were BOTH hurt at the onset of the season - and there was nothing to be done. Adding in yatta's injury and three supposed starters were either disabled or playing injured - and that is an issue for any team, and a disaster for one which was already wanting on the oline.

Yeah but Davin obviously played so it isn't like he was gone ALL season long. Davin started 12 games so 3/4 of the season Caddy has no excuse. You notice Caddy didn't get better as the year worse on. He averaged 2.5 ypc in December when that line was at it's peak. He stared the year with 3 games under 3.0 ypc and ended with 3 games under 3.0 ypc ina nice sort of symmetry.

I call shenanigans if the Bucs o-line in 2006 was at its peak with Buenning out and Mahan in.

His point was that Mahan was there both years, so you can't really pin the 2006 troubles on him. 

IF that is the case the point is not made very well, and does not address the loss of three offensive line starters very well. 

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

alldaway

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ę #138 : June 08, 2007, 07:29:38 PM Ľ

That line in December was as good as that line was gonna get last year in terms of the rookies being at their peak. Obviously the line is better without Mahan on it.

Still, Beunning played in games 2 and 3 when Caddy popped those 2.5 ypc efforts and that made it the same line he ran behind as in 2005 and ATL and CAR had average to awful run defenses last year - oh yeah and Simms was a the QB so teams couldn't "stack the line".

Why is Carnell being blamed for what happened in games 2 and 3?  The o-line contrary to popular belief around here was not poor in games 2 and 3 (especially in pass protection).

Game 2 was versus the Atlanta Falcons.

Simms committed 3 costly turnovers (3 INT's) and had 53 pass attempts.   Carrnell only had 15 rushing attempts total in the game.

Of those 15 rushing attempts Carnell had 5 attempts in the first drive of the first quarter.
His gains in order were (2, 4, 4, 5, and 2). What killed this drive? Simms made two bad throws to Carnell and Alstott in the backfield.  Simms was not quick enough with his decision making and too late to put the ball out there for Carnell and Alstott.  Defenders were all over both of them which lead to two incomplete passes.  Carnell's first three runs of the first drive ended up with the Bucs having a first down.  The drive was derailed becuase of Simms' slow decison making.

Carnell ended up having 9 of his 15 rushing attempts in the first half of this game.

Then the second half comes up.

Carnell had 4 rushing attempts in the first drive of the third quarter.  13 of his 15 rushing attempts Carnell has had up to this point.  The yards Carnell gained in those 4 rushing attempts in the third quarter were ( 4,2,3,3).  The first two plays of this drive were run plays and then a pass to Clayton.  On the fourth play where the Falcons were playing the run Simms hit Galloway deep on a play action pass.  Two runs plays of 3 yards for Carnell and the Bucs are near the Falcons goal line.  What happens?  Simms throws it too low for Smith and bounces up to be intercepted.

Of the three productive drives in this game up to this point two of them had Carnell being an integral part of keeping the Falcons honest and moving the chains.  The other drive the Bucs had was in waning moments of the second quarter in a two minute drill.

After Brooks intercepted a pass in the late third quarter the Bucs were in a pass mode.  Productive drive using the pass but Bryant missed the field goal.  Falcons had the ball back but the Bucs defense finally forced the Falcons offense to punt for the first time in the game in the late third quarter.  Carnell only had 6 rushing attempts in second half.  Four of those rushing attempts came in the first drive of the second half of the game.  If I recall correctly many people criticized Gruden for abandoning the run considering the score was pretty close.  But the defense was playing poorly so that may have been a factor as to why Gruden abandoned the run in the second half.  Clearly the Bucs had productive drives when they kept defenses honest by feeding it to Carnell.  But a back like Carnell needs more carries than 15.  Especially in the second half of football games.  

Game 3 was against the Panthers.

In this game Carnell had 19 carries.  And improvement by four carries compared to the last game but still not enough in my opinion.

First play of the first drive?  Carnell gains 5 yards.  Next play?  Simms' pass intercepted.

Second drive with the Bucs down 7-0.

Carnell had two consecutive rushing attempts of 1 and 4 yards.  3 and 5 which is manageable?  Incomplete pass by Simms to Clayton.

The first TD of the game for the Bucs came in the second quarter.  Carnell had three rushing attempts in this drive of (7,2,7) yards.

Of the 19 rushing attempts Carnell had 9 of them in the first half.  

The second half comes around.

The Bucs D forces a turnover deep in the Panthers territory.  Two consecutive runs by Carnell of (11,4) yards results in a TD by Carnell.

11 of Carnell's 19 carries up to this point.

So why is Carnell's averages so low in these two games?  Becuase I did not list the negative yardage he received in both games when he was hit in the backfield.  Simply put Carnell often generated 2 yards when defenders were in the backfield in both of these games. If given blocking and attempts he showed he can put yards on the ground in both of these games.  But given the circumstances of both games (poor defense and Simms' being a TO machine) he did not have any control of the flow of both games. In fairness you could argue the o-line was up/down with their play and did not establish a rhythym.  

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ę #139 : June 08, 2007, 07:42:05 PM Ľ

Simms in 2005 completed 21 pass 20+ yards and 3 pass 40+ yards in 11 games started in the regular season. 

In comparsion Gradkowski who started 11 games in 2006 (as a rookie) completed 16 passes 20+ yards and 3 passes 40+ yards.

We know Simms is better with the deep ball than Gradkowski.  But the gap is no that large in my opinion as people make it out to be.






alldaway

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ę #140 : June 08, 2007, 08:34:34 PM Ľ

Carnell's best rushing games came about after the bye week with Gradkowski starting.

New Orleans game Carnell had 20 attempts for 111 yards.  Reason?  They were playing the pass against Gradkowski and Carnell burned them with several draw plays for huge chunks of yardage.  In this game the Bucs used the pass to set up the run. Not to mention an excellent use of roll outs using Gradkowski (which was never to be seen for the rest of the season sadly despite being the most impressive display of offense the entire season until the Bears game).

The next game was the Bengals game Carnell had 19 carries for 94 yards.  Buenning briefly went out and Mahan came in.  Suprise, suprise Mahan is beat like a drum and AD is left with a 2 on 1 situation.  Justin Smith beats AD since he is at a disadvantage (Thanks Mahan!) and pummels Grads into the ground (which lead to a bogus roughing the passer penalty).  Mahan is in for a brief period and disaster follows this master matador.  But thanks to a bogus call Mahan's blunder turns into a masterstroke (lucky for him).

Next game was the Eagles game. Carnell had 23 carries for 82 yards. Gradkowski was starting to lose steam after his first game.

After that was the Giants game.  Wind + poor pass defense + loads of pass attempts.  Clearly Carnell was not given enough carries in this game.

Carnell only had 12 rushing attempts for 39 yards in the next game against the Saints.  Brees was lighting up the Bucs pass defense in this game (A rookie LT from a small school was owning Rice too).  Enough said.

MNF game against Carolina.  Carnell had only 15 attempts (must be a running theme in this past season no?).  Bucs defense with street players held on but it unraveled in the second half.  Gradkowski had two INT's.

Next game against the Skins Carnell had 27 carries for 122 yards.  Wow week 11 into the regular season and Carnell finally receives 25+ carries (Should I laugh or cry?).  Care to guess how many games of 25+ carries Carnell had in his rookie year (2005) up to week 11?  If my fuzzy math is correct it is definately more than 1 game. The rest I will leave to your imagination.

Game against Dallas.  This was the turning point in my opinion and I will explain why later on.  Carnell finished the game with 17 carries for 78 yards.  The game unraveled when the pass defense simply could not hold up and the Cowboys were torching the Bucs through the air.  If you did not watch the game and spent time with your family I do not blame you. :(

The first drive of the game.  Carnell had 5 of his 17 carries in the first drive with runs (2,4,3,3,4).  Nothing spectacular but this drive produced a TD.

Here comes the second quarter.

Carnell had 5 attempts in the fourth drive of (5,2,5,3,22) yards. Carnell's biggest run of 22 yards came about by breaking three tackles.   This drive ended in a field goal.

Carnell had 3 attempts in the fifth drive of (6,5,5) yards.  This drive ended in a punt.

Carnell had 14 attempts out of 17 in the first half of the game.  Like I said the game was out of control in the second half.  Not to mention in the second half Buenning was out with a knee injury in this game.

Carnell against Pitt had only 11 attempts for 27 yards. That fumble by Carnell hurt the team in that game.

Carnell had 20 attempts (reasonable) for 48 yards (Yuck! I think the last two games indicate that Buenning IS missed). Carnell's yards per carry average has dropped like a rock all of sudden.  Only explanation I have is that Buenning is out and Mahan is in his place. 

Carnell had 11 attempts in the Chicago game for 26 yards.  Not many rushing attempts considering the Bucs were down in the game and rallied only to lose the game.

Pittman had 16 carries for 68 yards against Cleveland.  Much better but against a Cleveland team not all too convincing.

Pittman followed up in the season finale with 17 carries for 73 yards. 

Conclusions:

*Carnell only had one game where he received 25 or more carries in 2006.  In his amazing, rookie year, Carnell had multiple games where he received 25 or more carries and even 30 carries.  Larry Johnson in 2006 easily had many games of 25 or more rushing attempts.

Carnell starts to produce as he approaches --> 20 carries.  His production increases even further as he approaches --> 25 carries.  And when he approaches --> 30 carries Carnell is simply dominating.  Hard to dominate when he had only one game where he had what 25 carries in the entire regular season? ???  And it is not like he had many games of 20 carries at least either.

*Buenning was sorely missed.  The numbers show this.  People can point to Pittman's production in the last two games and claim Buenning was not missed. But I am not convinced since it was against Cleveland and Seattle.  And even then Pittman could have done more on the ground IF he too was given at least 20 carries or more. 

*Carnell is not a home run threat (patient runner).  Pittman is in contrast (impatient runner).  They compliment each other well and that is why their numbers are different given the circumstances.  Basically if you want a back that can produce yards with carries less than 20 then Pittman is ideal for a pass happy offense with little rushing attempts.  If you want a run heavy offense where you feed a back 25+ carries the advantage shifts to Carnell.

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ę #141 : June 08, 2007, 09:31:48 PM Ľ

Carnell's best rushing games came about after the bye week with Gradkowski starting.

New Orleans game Carnell had 20 attempts for 111 yards.  Reason?  They were playing the pass against Gradkowski and Carnell burned them with several draw plays for huge chunks of yardage.  In this game the Bucs used the pass to set up the run. Not to mention an excellent use of roll outs using Gradkowski (which was never to be seen for the rest of the season sadly despite being the most impressive display of offense the entire season until the Bears game).

The next game was the Bengals game Carnell had 19 carries for 94 yards.  Buenning briefly went out and Mahan came in.  Suprise, suprise Mahan is beat like a drum and AD is left with a 2 on 1 situation.  Justin Smith beats AD since he is at a disadvantage (Thanks Mahan!) and pummels Grads into the ground (which lead to a bogus roughing the passer penalty).  Mahan is in for a brief period and disaster follows this master matador.  But thanks to a bogus call Mahan's blunder turns into a masterstroke (lucky for him).

Next game was the Eagles game. Carnell had 23 carries for 82 yards. Gradkowski was starting to lose steam after his first game.

After that was the Giants game.  Wind + poor pass defense + loads of pass attempts.  Clearly Carnell was not given enough carries in this game.

Carnell only had 12 rushing attempts for 39 yards in the next game against the Saints.  Brees was lighting up the Bucs pass defense in this game (A rookie LT from a small school was owning Rice too).  Enough said.

MNF game against Carolina.  Carnell had only 15 attempts (must be a running theme in this past season no?).  Bucs defense with street players held on but it unraveled in the second half.  Gradkowski had two INT's.

Next game against the Skins Carnell had 27 carries for 122 yards.  Wow week 11 into the regular season and Carnell finally receives 25+ carries (Should I laugh or cry?).  Care to guess how many games of 25+ carries Carnell had in his rookie year (2005) up to week 11?  If my fuzzy math is correct it is definately more than 1 game. The rest I will leave to your imagination.

Game against Dallas.  This was the turning point in my opinion and I will explain why later on.  Carnell finished the game with 17 carries for 78 yards.  The game unraveled when the pass defense simply could not hold up and the Cowboys were torching the Bucs through the air.  If you did not watch the game and spent time with your family I do not blame you. :(

The first drive of the game.  Carnell had 5 of his 17 carries in the first drive with runs (2,4,3,3,4).  Nothing spectacular but this drive produced a TD.

Here comes the second quarter.

Carnell had 5 attempts in the fourth drive of (5,2,5,3,22) yards. Carnell's biggest run of 22 yards came about by breaking three tackles.   This drive ended in a field goal.

Carnell had 3 attempts in the fifth drive of (6,5,5) yards.  This drive ended in a punt.

Carnell had 14 attempts out of 17 in the first half of the game.  Like I said the game was out of control in the second half.  Not to mention in the second half Buenning was out with a knee injury in this game.

Carnell against Pitt had only 11 attempts for 27 yards. That fumble by Carnell hurt the team in that game.

Carnell had 20 attempts (reasonable) for 48 yards (Yuck! I think the last two games indicate that Buenning IS missed). Carnell's yards per carry average has dropped like a rock all of sudden.  Only explanation I have is that Buenning is out and Mahan is in his place. 

Carnell had 11 attempts in the Chicago game for 26 yards.  Not many rushing attempts considering the Bucs were down in the game and rallied only to lose the game.

Pittman had 16 carries for 68 yards against Cleveland.  Much better but against a Cleveland team not all too convincing.

Pittman followed up in the season finale with 17 carries for 73 yards. 

Conclusions:

*Carnell only had one game where he received 25 or more carries in 2006.  In his amazing, rookie year, Carnell had multiple games where he received 25 or more carries and even 30 carries.  Larry Johnson in 2006 easily had many games of 25 or more rushing attempts.

Carnell starts to produce as he approaches --> 20 carries.  His production increases even further as he approaches --> 25 carries.  And when he approaches --> 30 carries Carnell is simply dominating.  Hard to dominate when he had only one game where he had what 25 carries in the entire regular season? ???  And it is not like he had many games of 20 carries at least either.

*Buenning was sorely missed.  The numbers show this.  People can point to Pittman's production in the last two games and claim Buenning was not missed. But I am not convinced since it was against Cleveland and Seattle.  And even then Pittman could have done more on the ground IF he too was given at least 20 carries or more. 

*Carnell is not a home run threat (patient runner).  Pittman is in contrast (impatient runner).  They compliment each other well and that is why their numbers are different given the circumstances.  Basically if you want a back that can produce yards with carries less than 20 then Pittman is ideal for a pass happy offense with little rushing attempts.  If you want a run heavy offense where you feed a back 25+ carries the advantage shifts to Carnell.

In the Cleavland game Pittman had 16 carries for 86 yards and a TD...not 16 carries for 68 yards...just a little minor correction there. But you made some excellent points.

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ę #142 : June 12, 2007, 02:54:33 PM Ľ

Nice thoughts - but if you want to have a running game - well Pitt is giving everything he can imho, and Carnel as the potential to be a very good runner with a decent qb and oline.  I don't think Pittman has that - but I could be wrong.

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant
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