Its All Relative Folks - Tampa's Gonna Be Okay

[nickerson56]

A tale of 2 schedules (and a few breaks)

Vikings (4-3)
- Wins against: Washington (Portis injured), Carolina (Smith injured), Detroit (R. Williams/D. Woody injured), Seattle (Alexander/Hasselbach injured)
- Losses against: Chicago, Buffalo, New England (all teams at full strength)
-November schedule: San Fransisco (2-5), Green Bay (3-4), Miami (1-6), Arizona (1-7)

Bucs  (2-5)
- Wins against: Cincy, Philly (all teams at full strength)
- Losses against: Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Giants (all teams at full strength)
* All Bucs opponents .500 or better
- November schedule: New Orleans (5-2), Carolina (4-4), Washington (2-5), Dallas (4-3)


MEANING...
- Speculative, I know, but Tampa would be over .500 if it had the Vikings schedule.  And Tampa would have a good chance to be 4-0 in the month of November, resulting in a record giving Tampa a chance to get a 1st-round playoff bye.

WHATS THE POINT?
- Bad breaks, bad schedule = no chance.  Wait till we get a favorable (3rd or 4th place) schedule and with some good luck, Tampa will rebound. 

[watson]

And last year the breaks went the Bucs way.  This year they are 2 defensive plays away from being 4-3.  Last year they made those plays.

[mjs020294]

And last year the breaks went the Bucs way.  This year they are 2 defensive plays away from being 4-3.  Last year they made those plays.

And they are two last minute, slightly lucky, drives off being 0-6.  Don't kid yourself this team isn't very good and we have the record we deserve.

[watson]

And last year the breaks went the Bucs way.  This year they are 2 defensive plays away from being 4-3.  Last year they made those plays.

And they are two last minute, slightly lucky, drives off being 0-6. Don't kid yourself this team isn't very good and we have the record we deserve.

By no means kidding myself......but the difference between winning and losing is not that much.  The first game was never close.  The second game the defense gave up 300 yards rushing and the QB throws 3 picks and the fieldgoal kicker missed 3 FGs....and they still only lost by 11...right?  The records do not always tell the true tale of a team.  A play here....a break there and the records totally change.

[mjs020294]

We are in the NFL cellar right now, the worst six teams in football are:

Oakland
Detroit
49ers
Arizona
Titans
Bucs

With the season in the can I just hope we are competing with these fine teams on week 17 for draft position.  

[ZenBuc]

As mjs, or Bucs United or whatever he decides to call himself, has said, we were probably the worst winning team in 2005 and the best losing team in 2004. The differences in those seasons (and this one) are minimal. When we got the breaks we went to the playoffs, when we didn't we got the #5 overall pick in the draft. Heck, even in 2003 we were a blocked extra point, an absurd 21pt 4th qtr meltdown, and a last second Delhomo-led scoring drive away from being 10-6...

The problem is the Bucs need to get to the point in which they don't have to rely on the lucky breaks and/or the schedule. Maybe if our promsing young guys continue to gain experience and develop together and we can add some premium talent via FA and the draft, we will see a team like that.

[mjs020294]

As mjs, or Bucs United or whatever he decides to call himself, has said, we were probably the worst winning team in 2005 and the best losing team in 2004.

It was easy to turn the 2004 season into a 2005 winning season, because we had some bad stuff happening in 2004 and still remained competitive.  The scary thing this year is we look like a bad losing team, and that is harder to turn around.

[BucHarbour]

Let's be honest, we knew this defense was getting up there. And when our starting QB regressed, then finally gets going only to lose his spleen...well...that's not conducive to winning. Next year the Bucs should be OK at QB, as I think Bruce has the right mindset and intelligence to get this offense soon enough to at least not kill us, and occasionally make some plays to win. He'll struggle must of this year, but should be solid (not great) next year. That and the rest of our offensive talent should be enough to get things going, as I think we finally have a line, except for Mahan, and Center could be better, but it's making due.

Next season we should be coming in with a bunch of key additions to the defense. Whether through FA or the draft, I fully expect the Bucs to seriously address every hole or weakness on this defense. Get that turned around next year, and we could have the start of another run of playoff teams. Right now, we're just not consistent enough. Of course, if the defense can keep playing like last Sunday, and the offense can at least put up a couple of TD's a game, we might actually win some games this season. Of course, barring an offensive explosion and a big streak of wins, the Bucs are pretty much done now.

[Boid Fink]

Alright, if the Bucs are a 2 and 5 team, and only have the talent to be this, what happens next year?  There are too many holes to fill, too many big names are not making it happen anymore, and not enough draft picks and not enough money to replenish the Bucs needs to become a winner.

Caddy is not a good back this year.
Clayton is showing the NFL that he isn't anything more than a #2, maybe even a slot receiver at best.
Galloway has one or two more years left.
The O-line is very, very young, and the Buenning situation is very su**CENSORED**ious, and disconcerting.  No reasons are being given, something is up.  Mahan is a scrub.
The QB situation is a big enigma.  As of now, Grads is a rookie, with the potential to be an adequate game-manager type in the Pro's.  Simms might be back, might not.  But after that, where is the depth?
Q and Brooks are on there way out.  Probably after this year for Q, and possibly this is DB's last outing.  If not, 55 isn't exactly playing like a cornerstone anymore.
The safeties are awful.  JP is a backup player, pushed into a starting gig, and failing miserably.
Kelly is aging, has a condition that can kill careers, and might be squawking over cash next year.  Bolden is not starting material at CB.
Tight Ends are alright, but alright is relative.  Smith can be a decent threat after the catch, IMO.  Becht is a decent chip block option.  Jolley has some potential, but potential amounts to nothing right now.
Fullback?  Alstott is a goner next year, Sowell is M.I.A., and the Razzano hype has finally disappeared.

With all this what can the Bucs do to reverse their fortune?  The team may be fighting its heart out, but that isn't enough to put up a Coveted "W".

Where do they begin the rebuild project?  The defense has shown its venerability, and lack of skill in some areas.  Do you rebuild that first?

The offense is dead last, with or without a SImms or a Gradkowski.  Do you begin dragging in new talent there?

This is not New England, players don't come to Tampa to play for peanuts, because they stand a chance to win a Lombardi.  They will be coming to Tampa looking for Jack, because they might be the "key", in their line of thinking in turning this mess around.

I have a feeling this is the start of a long freefall, one that might last for at least two or three years.

The way things are being run right now, it is a scratch your head affair.

Where is Phillip Buchanon?  Wasn't he a playmaker?  He can't learn Bisaccias "great" schemes? 

What is up with Buenning?  Mahan is a weakling, has no business being in there, unless the Bucs are PURPOSEFULLY sasbotaging their season.  Mahan for Buenning?  Buenning has said he is not hurt.  What gives?

Throwing 48 times in a tornado?  Throwing on fourth and 1?  It just seems the plays being called are very conservative, or very dicey.  I would rather see A-Train mash his way forward for 1 yard to keep the drive alive.

Spires?  Has he even been alerted that he is playing defensive end yet?

The list goes on and on. 

Where do you start?  What needs immediate attention, to stop the bleeding?  Or have the Bucs been finally hit with a grenade, and there are too many holes to patch up?  Wounds like this take a long time to patch up.

[bucnut]

We are in the NFL cellar right now, the worst six teams in football are:

Oakland
Detroit
49ers
Arizona
Titans
Bucs

With the season in the can I just hope we are competing with these fine teams on week 17 for draft position.   

Don't forget to add the reigning Super Bowl Champs to that list of cellar dwellers.

[T]

Great teams overcome injuries & tough schedules, see the Patriots every year. I think we are fooling ourselves that we have a offensive genius running our team.

[mjs020294]

We are in the NFL cellar right now, the worst six teams in football are:

Oakland
Detroit
49ers
Arizona
Titans
Bucs

With the season in the can I just hope we are competing with these fine teams on week 17 for draft position.   

Don't forget to add the reigning Super Bowl Champs to that list of cellar dwellers.

That is a list of the losing teams that have a really bad points difference, i.e. they conceded a lot more points that they score.  In 2004 we had a losing record but our points for and against were pretty close, so it was no surprise when we turned it around in 2005.  When your points difference is really bad it can be a long road back.