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dalbuc

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: November 02, 2006, 02:30:46 PM

Just a few interesting stats. In all case Simms is the first set of figures and Grads the second.

Incomplete passes (all % are % of incomplete passes)

Pass Dropped:    08.3%  v.  16.0%
Poor Throw:        18.8%  v.  48.0% 
Pass Defensed:  27.1%  v.   13.3% 
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6%  v.   06.7%
Other:                 16.7%  v.  14.7% 
Intercepted:       14.6%  v.   01.3%

Few things, yes Simms gets more passes batted at the line, by about double. I'm also su**CENSORED**ious of the "defensed" figure for Simms and wonder if some deflections might not be in there because guys weren't "on the line"

Gradkowski is not getting helped by his WR's. You can't just add those in since all QB's have drops but Grads is being dropped at twice the rate of Simms.

The big number that leaps out for Grads is his "Poor Throw" figure which is high at 48% of all his misses. Basically one of every two misses is because he failed to put the ball on target.  It is one reason the passes defensed number is so low vis a vis Simms - the ball isn't there to be batted down. Is this figure abnormal? Gradkowski is the worst of the rookies on this but not widlly out of range. Leinart has a 40.5% bad throw figure, Vince has a 35% figure.



All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

Garv

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#1 : November 02, 2006, 02:33:45 PM

I think some of those "poor throws" COULD have been INTs had they been closer.
Grads is careful with the ball and it shows up positively.
He's getting better and is the better fit in Gruden's WCO, obviously.

We are all here because we are NOT all there.....
As always, GO BUCS!!!



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#2 : November 02, 2006, 02:37:58 PM

Pass Dropped:    08.3%  v.  16.0%
Poor Throw:        18.8%  v.  48.0% 
Pass Defensed:  27.1%  v.   13.3% 
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6%  v.   06.7%
Other:                 16.7%  v.  14.7% 
Intercepted:       14.6%  v.   01.3%

Wow.  Thanks.

The encouraging thing is that I'm not actually that concerned about his accuracy (which is pointed to as his main problem above).  The guy completed 68+% of his throws in college (as you all know, I'm sure).  Judging by the numbers above, his problem right now is rythm and game speed.  The timing is not right.  He'll get through his reads too quickly and check down, or take too long to get the long ball out of his hand.

These numbers make me feel a bit better about how he's playing and how he's progressing.  If he starts to get a feel for the velocity of the professional game, I think he can be great.  He has the intangibles in spades, I'd say.

He's got a ways to go, though.  Here's hoping something clicks Sunday.  :)

keeponbucn

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#3 : November 02, 2006, 02:40:01 PM

Just a few interesting stats. In all case Simms is the first set of figures and Grads the second.

Incomplete passes (all % are % of incomplete passes)

Pass Dropped: 08.3% v. 16.0%
Poor Throw: 18.8% v. 48.0%
Pass Defensed: 27.1% v. 13.3%
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6% v. 06.7%
Other: 16.7% v. 14.7%
Intercepted: 14.6% v. 01.3%

Few things, yes Simms gets more passes batted at the line, by about double. I'm also su**CENSORED**ious of the "defensed" figure for Simms and wonder if some deflections might not be in there because guys weren't "on the line"

Gradkowski is not getting helped by his WR's. You can't just add those in since all QB's have drops but Grads is being dropped at twice the rate of Simms.

The big number that leaps out for Grads is his "Poor Throw" figure which is high at 48% of all his misses. Basically one of every two misses is because he failed to put the ball on target. It is one reason the passes defensed number is so low vis a vis Simms - the ball isn't there to be batted down. Is this figure abnormal? Gradkowski is the worst of the rookies on this but not widlly out of range. Leinart has a 40.5% bad throw figure, Vince has a 35% figure.





damn, really good dig Dal.

I agree with Garv. that Grads really protects the ball in some cases. I've seen him throw balls in the dirt because he recognizes the defender is right there.

It shows that he's not passed the first read yet and once the first read isn't there he just chucks it out of bound or in a spot that nobody can get it.

Boid Fink

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#4 : November 02, 2006, 02:40:18 PM

Where are you getting these figures from? ???




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#5 : November 02, 2006, 02:42:59 PM

damn, really good dig Dal.

I agree with Garv. that Grads really protects the ball in some cases. I've seen him throw balls in the dirt because he recognizes the defender is right there.

It shows that he's not passed the first read yet and once the first read isn't there he just chucks it out of bound or in a spot that nobody can get it.

I agree.  I think the decision-making will improve as the game slows down for him, though.  Bottom line, he generally does not force the ball into wierd spots as much as Simms did.

bradentonian

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#6 : November 02, 2006, 02:48:44 PM

Pass Hit at Line: 14.6% v. 06.7%


What is the league average?


Groovatron

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#7 : November 02, 2006, 02:58:35 PM

I don't know how many of his bad passes could be attributed to the wind last week but it may be a consideration.

mjs020294

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#8 : November 02, 2006, 04:16:38 PM

Just a few interesting stats. In all case Simms is the first set of figures and Grads the second.

Incomplete passes (all % are % of incomplete passes)

Pass Dropped:    08.3%  v.  16.0%
Poor Throw:        18.8%  v.  48.0% 
Pass Defensed:  27.1%  v.   13.3% 
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6%  v.   06.7%
Other:                 16.7%  v.  14.7% 
Intercepted:       14.6%  v.   01.3%

Few things, yes Simms gets more passes batted at the line, by about double. I'm also su**CENSORED**ious of the "defensed" figure for Simms and wonder if some deflections might not be in there because guys weren't "on the line"

Gradkowski is not getting helped by his WR's. You can't just add those in since all QB's have drops but Grads is being dropped at twice the rate of Simms.

The big number that leaps out for Grads is his "Poor Throw" figure which is high at 48% of all his misses. Basically one of every two misses is because he failed to put the ball on target.  It is one reason the passes defensed number is so low vis a vis Simms - the ball isn't there to be batted down. Is this figure abnormal? Gradkowski is the worst of the rookies on this but not widlly out of range. Leinart has a 40.5% bad throw figure, Vince has a 35% figure.




Interesting Dal, but it doesn't take account of 1st year rookie VS 3rd year pro.  Obviously when you compare him to Leinhart and Young it gives you a clearer picture, plus it PROVES that rookies have problems timing their passes initially.




bradentonian

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#9 : November 02, 2006, 04:20:06 PM


Pass Dropped: 08.3% v. 16.0%
Poor Throw: 18.8% v. 48.0%
Pass Defensed: 27.1% v. 13.3%
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6% v. 06.7%
Other: 16.7% v. 14.7%
Intercepted: 14.6% v. 01.3%


Are the Simms figures for career numbers or just this year?


mjs020294

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#10 : November 02, 2006, 04:21:25 PM


Pass Dropped: 08.3% v. 16.0%
Poor Throw: 18.8% v. 48.0%
Pass Defensed: 27.1% v. 13.3%
Pass Hit at Line: 14.6% v. 06.7%
Other: 16.7% v. 14.7%
Intercepted: 14.6% v. 01.3%



Are the Simms figures for career numbers or just this year?


Looking at the interceptions and batted%, I am guessing this season.   1st year rookie VS 3rd year Pro in a real slump, kind of like comparing apples and oranges. 




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#11 : November 02, 2006, 04:43:34 PM

I figured we could all make that logical jump for ourselves. ;)

I thought the QB in a  system vs QB in a system comparision was worth doing despite the "age" gap.

Also, one could make the argument that Simms looked alot like a rookie.  :)



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#12 : November 02, 2006, 05:23:28 PM

I figured we could all make that logical jump for ourselves. ;)

I thought the QB in a  system vs QB in a system comparision was worth doing despite the "age" gap.

I'd be interested to know what your feeling is, looking at those numbers?  Are you of the opinion that those figures are more of a positive or a negative for Grads?

My thought is that they ARE in fact positive, as I'm not truly concerned about his accuracy.

Itchalot

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#13 : November 02, 2006, 07:20:44 PM

So many of Simms passes are batted how do you know if they are poor throws or not?


umguy1999

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#14 : November 02, 2006, 08:40:20 PM

Those stats are worthless without a basis, such as distance and down, 3, 5, 7 step drops, teams defensive rankings. etc. etc. etc. stats' are for losers
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